Analyst:Thai bourse should rebound in 2nd half of 2014

BANGKOK, January 9 (TNA) - A senior analyst has foreseen that the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index should rebound during the second half of this year if the domestic political situation improved. The securities analyst, Ratch Sodsatit, Managing Director of Asset Plus Fund Management Co., Ltd., made the assessment on Thursday, reasoning that foreign investors have started returning and investing on the Thai stock market as they believe Thai politics would find a solution soon. Ratch acknowledged that the SET index has tumbled about 15 per cent over the past few months, much more than neighbouring countries whose stock markets have declined by 4-7 per cent during the same period. Ratch explained high expectations that Thailand's political problems would soon relieve plus the recovering world economy and the relaxing US quantitative easing policy would help P/E Ratio of Thai stocks to return to the normal level at 12-14, from the current 11.5, cheaper than the Indonesian and the Philippine stock markets. Ratch pointed out that the Thai bourse remains attractive to foreign investors on the long-term basis, thanks to strong fundamentals of the Thai economy, expressing his hope that the new Thai government will continue investing on mega infrastructure development projects. According to the senior analyst, earnings of listed firms on the SET are likely to grow by about 10 per cent this year, which should help push the SET index to reach its 1,500-point benchmark, from nearly 1,300 points currently. Meanwhile, a recent survey, conducted by the Economic and Business Forecasting Centre of Bangkok-based University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, showed that Thailand’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in December 2013 continued declining for the ninth consecutive month and stood at 73.4, the lowest level over the past two years. The centre's director, Thanawat Polvichai, attributed the decline to local consumers' worries over the domestic political uncertainty and projected that domestic consumption would continue declining until at least the end of the first quarter this year because there are no signs of the national economic recovery for the time being. Touching on a planned “Bangkok shutdown” by anti-government protesters next Monday, the centre has forecast that local consumers' spending should slow down by 5-10 per cent on average, resulting in consumers' spending and national revenues from tourism-related businesses throughout the country to each fall by about 500 million baht daily, while Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to also drop by 0.1–0.2 per cent during the planned "Bangkok shutdown" on January 13.(TNA)