(News Focus) Lee-Trump summit may prove to be 'inflection' point in alliance: experts
WASHINGTON, Aug. 12 (Yonhap) -- The United States' efforts to enhance operational flexibility of its troops in South Korea and rework the bilateral alliance to deter China may figure prominently in the upcoming summit between Presidents Lee Jae Myung and Donald Trump, analysts said Tuesday, noting their summit could be an "inflection point" in the two countries' relationship.
The White House meeting, set for Aug. 25, will be a chance for Trump to highlight to the domestic gallery Seoul's recent investment pledges and cooperation in shipbuilding and other sectors, but potentially divisive security issues, including defense "burden-sharing," could expose fault lines in the alliance, the analysts said.
The first summit between the leaders will come at a crucial juncture, when Seoul and Washington are exploring ways to "modernize" their alliance with an apparent focus on expanding the scope of its role beyond the Korean Peninsula to help counter broader regional challenges, including an assertive China.
"The upcoming summit could be a major inflection point for the alliance and overall relationship depending on how both sides manage it, especially President Trump," Rob Rapson, former acting U.S. ambassador to South Korea, told Yonhap News Agency via email.
Well aware of the summit's implications for the alliance, Seoul's presidential office has said that the two leaders will discuss ways to develop the security partnership into a "future-oriented, comprehensive strategic alliance" in response to the "shifting international security and economic environment."
Andrew Yeo, the SK-Korea Foundation chair at the Brookings Institution's Center for East Asia Policy Studies, anticipated that "strategic flexibility" of the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) and alliance modernization will be the "key words" from this summit.
Greater strategic flexibility would mean the use of U.S. troops in South Korea for a wider range of expeditionary operations, including roles for regional contingencies -- a move farther away from their traditional focus on deterring North Korean threats.
"Aside from hashing out a few more specifics on the trade deal, this meeting will focus on defense and security issues," Yeo said. "The Koreans may get an early preview of how the Pentagon is addressing Indo-Pacific security and thinking about reconfiguring alliances to deter China."
For Washington, USFK strategic flexibility -- as part of efforts to "modernize" the alliance -- is a crucial element to rebalance its military assets to optimize deterrence against China at a time of Beijing's military buildup and its increasing collaboration with North Korea and Russia.
But its pursuit of strategic flexibility puts Seoul in a challenging geopolitical position as Lee has adopted a "pragmatic" diplomatic approach that values the alliance with the U.S. as the "foundation" for Korea's foreign and security policy, but still pursues stable ties with China.
"Defining the scope and conditions of USFK strategic flexibility may lead to disagreements, particularly if the conversation revolves more specifically around a Taiwan contingency," Yeo noted.
Rapson raised questions over the extent to which Trump would pursue USFK strategic flexibility, considering that Trump has touted his "very good" relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping and sought to reach a trade deal as part of his drive to reduce America's trade deficits and boost domestic manufacturing.
"Not sure how hard Trump will push on 'strategic flexibility' as there seems to be some divergence between Trump and his administration's 'China-hawks' on U.S. posture towards Beijing given Trump's seeming interest in doing a big 'deal' with Xi perhaps at a summit in Beijing in the fall," the former diplomat said.
The summit will unfold against the backdrop of last month's trade deal between Seoul and Washington.
Under the deal, the Trump administration agreed to lower "reciprocal" tariffs on Korea to 15 percent from the proposed 25 percent in return for Seoul's commitment to investing US$350 billion in the U.S. and purchasing $100 billion worth of U.S. energy, among other pledges.
Trump is likely to use the summit to publicize that deal to the American audience as a key win from his America First policy drive, analysts said.
"The most visible deliverables should be significant new South Korean investments in shipbuilding, semiconductors and energy projects that could headline a broader narrative of industrial cooperation between the two allies," Patrick Cronin, the chair for Asia-Pacific security at the Hudson Institute, told Yonhap News Agency.
He added that Lee should aim to earn credit for expanding trade and investment in strategic sectors, while pressing Trump for a commitment to "sustained leader-to-leader problem-solving."
"He should also work to push complex and technical alliance disputes down to lower levels of government, where steady dialogue can prevail over political theater," the scholar said.
In addition, Cronin advised Lee to avoid asking for what he will not be able to get: a guarantee of U.S. predictability, which the scholar described as an "asset President Trump deliberately guards as a source of negotiating leverage."
Given that the countries' trade deal lacked details, the summit could also serve to work them out or at least give more clarity on the specifics, observers noted.
"It appears the United States and Korea still have yet to hash out the specifics of sensitive components of the recent trade (deal) such as agricultural issues surrounding beef and rice," Tom Ramage, an economic policy analyst at the Korea Economic Institute of America, said. "The meeting of the leaders may be an opportunity to provide clarity on these issues as well (as) ones not in the deal, such as digital trade."
The upcoming summit could also be a chance for Korea to push for further alignment on economic issues, including those concerning automotive and other key industrial sectors, Ramage said.
"If done well, the meeting could be a win-win for both President Lee and Trump, with both walking away with new concessions on security and investment commitments," he said.
On North Korea, analysts expressed expectation that both Lee and Trump could reiterate their desire to engage with Pyongyang, while touching on a lingering question over whether the reclusive state would respond to any diplomatic outreach at a time when it enjoys closer ties with Russia and China.
"A joint outreach to Kim Jong-un may generate media interest but would immediately raise questions about Pyongyang's fear of diplomatic reengagement," Cronin said.
The North's potential response aside, the summit could be a crucial venue for Seoul to ensure that the leaders of the two allies are on the same page over a policy strategy and approach regarding the recalcitrant regime's nuclear quandary.
"Lee should use the Summit to engage Trump's interest in restarting diplomacy with North Korea first-hand, but also receive affirmation from Trump that the U.S. will coordinate with the ROK before engaging with the DPRK," Yeo said. ROK and DPRK are short for the official names of South and North Korea, the Republic of Korea and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, respectively.
"South Korea has been featured less prominently under the Trump administration in strategic and defense discussion. Hopefully the summit serves as a reminder to Trump the importance and relevance of the U.S.-ROK alliance in the Indo-Pacific."
At a personal level, the summit is expected to be an opportunity for the leaders to build rapport as Seoul seeks to deepen the partnership with the Trump administration on security, economic and other fronts, with Washington eyeing Seoul's greater contributions to regional peace and economic security.
"Finding personal rapport with President Trump will be critical for Lee, especially in the context of other country leaders' visits to the White House which evolved into criticism sessions," Ramage said.
"Regardless, both Trump and Lee are jointly linked to the shared history between the U.S. and Korea. The relationship the two countries have in security, trade, and technology will likely out-shadow any disparities in personal chemistry."
Noting Trump's propensity for going off script, Rapson noted the need for Lee and his team to prepare for "all eventualities" that could emerge at the summit.
"The challenge for Lee will be how to effectively manage and parry any and all Trump assertions and demands that might go far beyond Korea's redlines for the trade-investment deal and its future security contributions and commitments, or anything else that arises," he said.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
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