BI SURVEY: SECOND QUARTER ECONOMY TO GROW 5.1-5.5 PCT

Jakarta, Apr 8 (ANTARA) - The result of a Bank Indonesia survey of the market perception has predicted an increase in the macro economic condition in the second quarter of 2010 by 5.1-5.5 percent.

BI, in its market perception survey in the first quarter of this year on Thursday indicated that the macro economic condition in the second quarter of 2010 would be better than that in the first quarter of the same year.

They BI survey covered 68 from 75 active respondents.

Some 39.7 pct of the respondents estimated that economic growth in the second quarter of this year will ranged from 5.1 to 5.5 pct, higher that the predicted economic growth rate in the first quarter of this year ranging from 4.1 to 4.5 pct.

The increase in economic growth in the second quarter of this year is in line with the increased expectations of export performance reflected in the current transaction surplus estimated to increase compared to that in the first quarter of this year.

In the meantime, some 22.1 pct of the respondents estimated that the economic growth rates would range from 4.6 to 5.0 pct, and 20.6 of the respondents predicted the economic growth rate to range from 4.1 to 4.5 pct.

The respondents also believed that the improved food crop supply and the grand harvest in the first quarter of this year can curb the inflation in the second quarter of this year.

On the other hand, external pressure from the inflation caused by imports was still a minimum, in which the exchange rate was relatively steady.

The inflation rate in the second quarter of this year had been predicted by the majority of the respondents (48.5 pct) to range from 2.1 to 3.5 pct.

In the meantime, some of the respondents 26.5 pct) predicted that there will be an inflation of 3.6-4.0 pct and even only 13.2 pct of the respondents estimated the inflation rate to range from 4.6 to 5.0 pct.

The survey also indicated that the exchange rate in the second quarter of this year is still relatively steady due to the improved exports.

The export performance gave a positive effect to the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar, in which 80.6 pct of the respondents believed that the exchange rate in the second quarter of this year will range from Rp9,001 to Rp 9,500 per US dollars, while 17.9 pct estimated the exchange rate to range from Rp9,501 to Rp10,000 per dollar.

The current transaction surplus in the second quarter of this year had been estimated to increase compared to that in the first quarter of this year.

The exports and imports in the second quarter of this year had been estimated to grow by 0.1-5.0 pct.

The growth in exports had been estimated by 28.4 pct of the respondents to grow by 0.1-5.0 pct, and 25.4 pct of the respondents estimated the growth by 5.1-100 pct, and 23.9 pct estimated the exports to grow by 10.1-15.0 pct.

Imports had been estimated by 38.8 pct of the respondents to grow by 0.1-5.0 pct.

While 23.9 pct were optimistic that the import would grow by 10.1-15.0 pct, and 19.4 pct predicted the imports to grow by 5.1-10.0 pct.

The improved exports was caused by the fact the the ratio of the transaction will reach a surplus of 1.6-1.5 pct against the GDP.

The prediction was made by 48.5 pct of the respondents, while 36.8 pct estimated a surplus in the current transactions against the GDP by 1.6-1,5 pct.