ID :
11960
Thu, 07/10/2008 - 10:02
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https://oananews.org//node/11960
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FOCUS: G-8 'success' still unlikely to help Fukuda shrug off domestic woes
RUSUTSU, Japan, July 10 Kyodo - Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda has played the major role of host at a Group of Eight summit he described as ''a success,'' eking out a face-saving agreement in climate change negotiations and achieving a demonstration of the major countries' unity in dealing with North Korea.
But with the overall outcome still leaving room for criticism from experts and environmental groups, Fukuda is likely to return to domestic affairs with little prospect that his diplomatic achievements will boost his popularity enough to help him deal more easily with continuing struggles in the dividedDiet.
For the 71-year-old prime minister, chairing the G-8 summit was apparently a long-cherished wish inherited from his late father Takeo Fukuda, who also served as prime minister but had to leave office in 1978 ahead of the firstmajor nations' summit Japan hosted the following year.
''Amid frank and honest discussions, there were times when we crossed swords.
But therefore we've been able to notch up many achievements,'' Fukuda stressed at the chair's press conference on Wednesday, the final day of the three-day summit, citing an agreement reached by G-8 leaders in relation to a Japanese-proposed long-term goal to at least halve global greenhouse gasemissions from current levels by 2050.
Fukuda was referring to the summit statement on climate change which said, in carefully crafted wording, that the G-8 will ''seek to share with all parties'' to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change the vision of halving global emissions by 2050 and ''to consider and adopt'' the goal in U.N. climate changenegotiations.
The vague language in the climate change statement was apparently a sign of compromise between the United States, which has been reluctant to set such a long-term target without the involvement of China, India and other emerging economies, and Japan and Europe, which have been pushing for a numericaltarget.
A source close to Fukuda indicated that the U.S. side may have made a compromise given the close relationship between Japan and the United States, saying, ''The United States probably had the feeling that they have to save the face of chair country Japan.'' But the failure to present a clear-cut message has left Fukuda open tocriticism from environmentalists.
Yurika Ayukawa, vice leader of the 2008 Japan G8 Summit NGO Forum, said that ''it is unclear whether or not the industrialized countries have agreed to halve emissions'' and the statement can even be regarded as a ''step back''from last year's summit in Germany.
Last year in Heiligendamm, the leaders of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States agreed to ''consider seriously'' theJapanese proposal to halve global emissions by 2050.
Fukuda himself seemed to acknowledge the frailty of the agreement, as he immediately tried to clarify it during the press conference by stating, ''The obvious precondition is that the G-8 countries, including the United States, have agreed to the (long-term) goal.'' Indicating the continuing tough negotiations over climate change, the leaders of 16 major emitters, including China, India and Brazil, also stopped short of specifying the long-term target in a meeting held on the sidelines of thesummit on Wednesday.
On North Korea, Fukuda was able to demonstrate Japan's presence more clearly than on the climate change issue by having a statement on political issues refer to the G-8's support for the six-party talks aimed at denuclearizing North Korea, including a resolution of Pyongyang's past abductions of Japanesenationals.
Leading the G-8 to send a strong message to North Korea has apparently been important for Fukuda at a time when concerns are growing in Japan that the expected U.S. removal of North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism may lead to marginalizing the abduction issue in the six-partyprocess.
But even in that area, some political experts expressed doubts about theeffectiveness of the message.
''Many countries may think this is a move (Japan has made) toward its own people, rather than directed to North Korea,'' said Yasunori Sone, a KeioUniversity professor of political science.
Giving an overall assessment of the summit, Sone also said, ''Although the climate change agreement is quite vague, the summit was not a failure and Fukuda's approval rating may rise a bit. But things are not easy enough for him to see his popularity rise sharply.'' The approval rating for the Fukuda Cabinet has been hovering below the''danger'' line of 30 percent.
Now that the high-profile event has ended, the next step Fukuda may take to bolster his weak support ratings is a Cabinet reshuffle before the nextparliamentary session starts, possibly in late August.
Fukuda has been looking for a suitable occasion to make the move, given that he retained 13 of the 17 incumbent Cabinet members when he succeeded Shinzo Abe asJapan's leader last September.
While admitting that a reshuffle will mean taking the risk of seeing newly-appointed ministers getting embroiled in scandals, Sone stressed the need for Fukuda to create his ''own'' Cabinet to send a clear message to the public about what kind of policies he plan to pursue, such as whether the consumptiontax should be raised.
''Reforming the Cabinet will lift his popularity temporarily. But Mr. Fukuda's weak point has been said to be the vagueness of his policy priorities...so the point is whether he can counteract such unclearness by forming a (new)Cabinet,'' Sone said.
''The risk is very big, but if he carries on (with this Cabinet) just because that risk is big, (more) doubts will emerge about the Fukuda administration,''he also said.
Many ruling party members speculate that a reshuffle could take place before the extraordinary Diet session, which is expected to be convened earlier than usual apparently because the government anticipates difficulties in swiftly extending a special antiterrorism law authorizing Japan's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean, given likely resistance by opposition parties that controlthe House of Councillors.
Fukuda is unlikely to dissolve the more powerful House of Representatives for a general election before the end of the year, for fear of seeing the ruling parties lose their overwhelming majority in the chamber. No general electionneeds to be held until September 2009.
Toward the end of the year, Fukuda will also have to go through discussions on reforming the tax system, including realizing his plan to end a system of earmarking certain tax revenues for road building, which has been criticized asa major source of wasteful spending.
''We have lots of difficult problems ahead,'' the source close to Fukuda said.
Indicating his uncertain future, Fukuda told members of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party at a meeting in mid-June that he foresees ''air turbulence''ahead.
But the prime minister was quoted as telling another gathering of LDP members, ''Unless you plunge into it, you won't know whether it is really turbulence or not. You can't make a prediction.'' ==Kyodo
But with the overall outcome still leaving room for criticism from experts and environmental groups, Fukuda is likely to return to domestic affairs with little prospect that his diplomatic achievements will boost his popularity enough to help him deal more easily with continuing struggles in the dividedDiet.
For the 71-year-old prime minister, chairing the G-8 summit was apparently a long-cherished wish inherited from his late father Takeo Fukuda, who also served as prime minister but had to leave office in 1978 ahead of the firstmajor nations' summit Japan hosted the following year.
''Amid frank and honest discussions, there were times when we crossed swords.
But therefore we've been able to notch up many achievements,'' Fukuda stressed at the chair's press conference on Wednesday, the final day of the three-day summit, citing an agreement reached by G-8 leaders in relation to a Japanese-proposed long-term goal to at least halve global greenhouse gasemissions from current levels by 2050.
Fukuda was referring to the summit statement on climate change which said, in carefully crafted wording, that the G-8 will ''seek to share with all parties'' to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change the vision of halving global emissions by 2050 and ''to consider and adopt'' the goal in U.N. climate changenegotiations.
The vague language in the climate change statement was apparently a sign of compromise between the United States, which has been reluctant to set such a long-term target without the involvement of China, India and other emerging economies, and Japan and Europe, which have been pushing for a numericaltarget.
A source close to Fukuda indicated that the U.S. side may have made a compromise given the close relationship between Japan and the United States, saying, ''The United States probably had the feeling that they have to save the face of chair country Japan.'' But the failure to present a clear-cut message has left Fukuda open tocriticism from environmentalists.
Yurika Ayukawa, vice leader of the 2008 Japan G8 Summit NGO Forum, said that ''it is unclear whether or not the industrialized countries have agreed to halve emissions'' and the statement can even be regarded as a ''step back''from last year's summit in Germany.
Last year in Heiligendamm, the leaders of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States agreed to ''consider seriously'' theJapanese proposal to halve global emissions by 2050.
Fukuda himself seemed to acknowledge the frailty of the agreement, as he immediately tried to clarify it during the press conference by stating, ''The obvious precondition is that the G-8 countries, including the United States, have agreed to the (long-term) goal.'' Indicating the continuing tough negotiations over climate change, the leaders of 16 major emitters, including China, India and Brazil, also stopped short of specifying the long-term target in a meeting held on the sidelines of thesummit on Wednesday.
On North Korea, Fukuda was able to demonstrate Japan's presence more clearly than on the climate change issue by having a statement on political issues refer to the G-8's support for the six-party talks aimed at denuclearizing North Korea, including a resolution of Pyongyang's past abductions of Japanesenationals.
Leading the G-8 to send a strong message to North Korea has apparently been important for Fukuda at a time when concerns are growing in Japan that the expected U.S. removal of North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism may lead to marginalizing the abduction issue in the six-partyprocess.
But even in that area, some political experts expressed doubts about theeffectiveness of the message.
''Many countries may think this is a move (Japan has made) toward its own people, rather than directed to North Korea,'' said Yasunori Sone, a KeioUniversity professor of political science.
Giving an overall assessment of the summit, Sone also said, ''Although the climate change agreement is quite vague, the summit was not a failure and Fukuda's approval rating may rise a bit. But things are not easy enough for him to see his popularity rise sharply.'' The approval rating for the Fukuda Cabinet has been hovering below the''danger'' line of 30 percent.
Now that the high-profile event has ended, the next step Fukuda may take to bolster his weak support ratings is a Cabinet reshuffle before the nextparliamentary session starts, possibly in late August.
Fukuda has been looking for a suitable occasion to make the move, given that he retained 13 of the 17 incumbent Cabinet members when he succeeded Shinzo Abe asJapan's leader last September.
While admitting that a reshuffle will mean taking the risk of seeing newly-appointed ministers getting embroiled in scandals, Sone stressed the need for Fukuda to create his ''own'' Cabinet to send a clear message to the public about what kind of policies he plan to pursue, such as whether the consumptiontax should be raised.
''Reforming the Cabinet will lift his popularity temporarily. But Mr. Fukuda's weak point has been said to be the vagueness of his policy priorities...so the point is whether he can counteract such unclearness by forming a (new)Cabinet,'' Sone said.
''The risk is very big, but if he carries on (with this Cabinet) just because that risk is big, (more) doubts will emerge about the Fukuda administration,''he also said.
Many ruling party members speculate that a reshuffle could take place before the extraordinary Diet session, which is expected to be convened earlier than usual apparently because the government anticipates difficulties in swiftly extending a special antiterrorism law authorizing Japan's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean, given likely resistance by opposition parties that controlthe House of Councillors.
Fukuda is unlikely to dissolve the more powerful House of Representatives for a general election before the end of the year, for fear of seeing the ruling parties lose their overwhelming majority in the chamber. No general electionneeds to be held until September 2009.
Toward the end of the year, Fukuda will also have to go through discussions on reforming the tax system, including realizing his plan to end a system of earmarking certain tax revenues for road building, which has been criticized asa major source of wasteful spending.
''We have lots of difficult problems ahead,'' the source close to Fukuda said.
Indicating his uncertain future, Fukuda told members of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party at a meeting in mid-June that he foresees ''air turbulence''ahead.
But the prime minister was quoted as telling another gathering of LDP members, ''Unless you plunge into it, you won't know whether it is really turbulence or not. You can't make a prediction.'' ==Kyodo
