(News Focus) Lee's speech hints at no change in N. Korea policy

By Lee Chi-dong
SEOUL, Aug. 15 (Yonhap) -- South Korean President Lee Myung-bak's offer of a
long-term inter-Korean reunification strategy and a special tax to fund the
ensuing astronomical costs is unlikely to help warm the two Koreas' frozen
relations, and it may rather trigger a dispute with the North at a time when it
is sensitive about its regime security, analysts said Sunday.
Addressing the nation to mark the 65th anniversary of Korea's independence from
Japan's 1910-45 colonization, Lee proposed his country adopt a "unification tax"
and pursue a three-step reunification strategy that would create peace, an open
economy and a collective ideology.
South Korea's presidents have often used Liberation Day speeches to unveil new
policies on North Korea and other major issues. Lee's speech was also closely
watched as it was meant to summarize his policy direction in the latter half of
his single five-year tenure that begins on Aug. 25.
"Reunification will definitely happen," he said. "It is therefore our duty to
start thinking about real and substantive ways to prepare for reunification such
as the adoption of a unification tax."
Lee also gave specifics on his vision for reunification with North Korea in the
televised address, but it lacked a concrete plan on how South Korea will
normalize relations with its communist neighbor, signaling that his
administration will stick to a tough stance.
Inter-Korean ties are at their lowest ebb in recent years following the deadly
sinking of a South Korean naval ship in March. The South accused the North of
sinking the vessel with a torpedo attack.
The president made it clear that his three-stage reunification plan is based on
the premise that North Korea will abandon its nuclear weapons program.
That is why analysts view it as standing in line with Lee's "Denuclearization,
Opening and 3,000" project, in which the South would assist the North in trebling
its per capita income of US$3,000 over a decade in exchange for its
denuclearization and market opening. Pyongyang has already rejected the idea.
Lee's aides said he wanted to remind the Korean people of the need for
reunification as it would mean genuine liberation from Japan's colonial rule that
led to the division of a capitalist South and a communist North.
"And (Lee's comments) also intended to urge North Korea to make a decision to
improve relations with the South and accelerate our internal preparations (for
reunification)," Yim Tae-hee, presidential chief of staff, told reporters.
Lee stopped short of elaborating on the scale of the tax and how to levy it,
passing relevant discussions onto experts and politicians. Heated debates are
expected in the process.
While North Korea has not issued a formal response yet to Lee's new proposal,
analysts here were skeptical that it would provide an immediate breakthrough in
inter-Korean relations.
"North Korea may misunderstand the reference of a unification tax at a time when
South-North relations are extremely bad," Kim Yong-hyun, professor at Dongguk
University, said. "North Korea may protest in the belief that South Korea is
considering a sudden change (in North Korean leadership) and seeking the
absorption of (the North)."
Apparently mindful of such worries, Lee's office, Cheong Wa Dae, said in a press
release that the proposal for a unification tax did not come in consideration of
a specific condition in the North and that it is intended as a long-term
investment to prepare for reunification.
The professor said the president's speech seems limited in order to convince
North Korea to avert its confrontational attitude, and no fresh change is
expected in the inter-Korean relationship for the time being.
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies, also
said, "A prudent approach toward a unification tax is necessary in the current
confrontational phase in inter-Korean relations. Discussions on the matter are
needed but controversy over the timing is expected."
The main opposition Democratic Party (DP) dismissed the president's offer of the
tax as pointless and called for him to implement the two inter-Korean summit
agreements of his liberal predecessors Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun.
"(President Lee) has yet to deviate from a Cold War-era mindset," DP spokesman
Cho Young-taek said.
The ruling Grand National Party (GNP), however, welcomed Lee's proposal as "very
realistic."
"We expect broad discussions in society overall, including the National
Assembly," GNP spokesman Ahn Hyoung-hwan said.
lcd@yna.co.kr
(END)