ID :
163608
Thu, 02/24/2011 - 04:50
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https://oananews.org//node/163608
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COULD AN 'SNS REVOLUTION' IGNITE IN NORTH KOREA?
NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 146 (February 24, 2011)
*** TOPIC OF THE WEEK (Part 2)
SEOUL (Yonhap) - While the recent civic uprisings in the Middle East mark people's perennial frustration of authoritarian corruption and economic disparities, few will refute the fact that the rallying cries were amplified from the proliferation of communication through such means such as mobile phones and social networking services (SNS).
As the world observes Muslim countries that appear to be on the cusp of revolution, there seems little doubt that authorities in North Korea -- a country with its own generations-long family dictatorship and fair share of economic woes -- are also closely monitoring the situation.
But does North Korea, which is heading for the first-ever third-generation power transition in the history of any communist state, have the elements in place for a similar movement?
In terms of infrastructure, the totalitarian regime appears to be, in a strictly limited fashion, heading somewhat in that direction, more lately embracing the mobile and communications revolution.
According to Pyongyang media reports, North Korea has seen a significant increase in its 3G mobile phone network, first launched in December 2008 by the Koryolink joint venture between the North Korean government and Egypt's Orascom Telecom Holding.
According to a quarterly earnings report by the Cairo-based firm in November of last year, the number of subscribers in North Korea nearly quadrupled from 69,261 in September 2009 to 301,199 the following year.
Despite the growth, it should be noted that the overall "mobile penetration" still remains at 1 percent -- centered around state, military and commerce elites -- in the country that has a per capita gross domestic product of US$1,900 and a population of 24 million.
North Korea first launched the mobile phone service in Pyongyang in November 2002 but banned it after a deadly explosion in the northern Ryongchon train station in April 2004, possibly out of concern that it could be used in a plot against the regime.
In 2008, the country repealed its policy and introduced a 3G mobile phone network in a joint venture with Orascom. The regime is reportedly building a factory to produce its own mobile phones.
Regarding hardware manufacturing, North Korea was reportedly planning to commence production of its own proprietary mobile phones, given what the country called an increased demand for wireless communication.
In April of last year, the Choson Sinbo, a pro-Pyongyang newspaper published in Tokyo, said the North Korean regime was building a factory to produce its own phones.
Despite the propaganda reports highlighting the people's ever-growing loyalty to their "Dear Leader" and the government, there's really no refuting among outsiders that the people are fed up with the nation's perpetual state of poverty and a virtual lack of human rights, most evident in the number of people risking their lives to flee the country.
More than 20,000 North Koreans have come to South Korea since the 1950-53 Korean War, which ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty. A large portion of them have arrived in recent years, indicating deepening troubles in the North. Most North Koreans flee via China.
The U.S. Freedom House stated in a recent report that, "North Korea is a totalitarian dictatorship and one of the most restrictive countries in the world. Every aspect of social, political and economic life is tightly controlled by the state. The regime denies North Koreans all basic rights, subjects tens of thousands of political prisoners to brutal conditions and maintains a largely isolationist foreign policy."
For decades the North Korean economy has been on a downward path after inviting international sanctions from its past two nuclear tests and persistent military provocations. The government's failed currency reform in late 2009 -- which knocked two zeros off its banknotes -- only brought about chaos in the markets and drove up inflation.
And with the state of affairs clearly in the doldrums, the country is in the process of observing the third-generation power succession. Last year, the 68-year-old leader Kim Jong-il made Kim Jong-un, his youngest son in his late 20s with no known prior experience in political or military matters, a four-star general and appointed him to high-ranking government and party posts.
Moreover, small and sporadic scuffles, mainly against crackdowns on merchants in markets and conflicts from cases of theft stemming from poverty, have been reported more frequently since 2000, according to North Korean human rights organizations in Seoul.
According to the Seoul-based Good Friends, several merchants reportedly got into a large scuffle with police guards in a market in Chongjin, North Hamgyong Province in August 2008. According to the group, known to have a large number of sources in the North, quarrels are often seen in markets in the cities of Haeju and Pyongsong, and in other regions.
Also reported was an incident in March 2010, where workers in the city of Kanggye, Jagang Province, were caught after having robbed a corn reserve out of starvation. In December 2008, a North Korean flag that had a star ripped out and replaced with an "X" was reportedly found at a security post in Kuchang County, South Hamgyong Province.
So the question remains, amid the developments in the Middle East, whether there is the slight possibility of a massive people's uprising. The answer? To many experts in South Korea, it's most unlikely.
"Unlike Tunisia, where its government's corruption was divulged through Wikileaks, there is a strictly controlled limitation of the distribution of information in North Korea even if some shocking corruption could be revealed," said Dong Yong-seung, a senior researcher on North Korea at the Samsung Economic Research Institute.
Dong said that using the Internet to organize a revolt, similar to those in Egypt and Tunisia, was impossible in reality because the Internet in the North is screened, and access is limited to the elite.
Kim Yoo-hyang, a researcher at the National Assembly Research Service, also noted that compared to the Muslim nations, North Korea's Internet penetration rate among the masses was significantly low and even information distributed through the Internet was strictly monitored.
"There have been reports that the North Korean government has in the past run simulation programs of what may happen if it opened up the Internet to the masses. They reportedly opted not to open up the Net," Kim said.
A former North Korean official who defected to the South said that the level of people's frustration is quite strong but not strong enough to mandate a movement of an organized level.
"People may revolt against local authorities with regard to the overall deteriorating level of livelihood, but it really is difficult to dream of a dynastic revolution," said the defector, requesting anonymity.
Some observers, however, take note of what they call potential "cracks," centered around the border shared with China, and that North Koreans are getting a glimpse of the outside world and are possibly being influenced by this.
For instance, many small media outlets specializing in North Korean affairs in the South are well known for handing Chinese-made mobile phones to North Koreans in the border area to get tips on the latest developments in the country.
Such people are used as sources in reporting on North Korea, but they could also serve as channels for North Koreans to receive regular information about the outside world.
The reported popularity of South Korean television shows and other pop culture contents may also serve as a catalyst in inciting a sense of free-market democracy in the North, or at least in the border regions.
In December, the People for Successful Corean Reunification, a Seoul-based group of defectors, said that South Korea's pop culture and fashion trends have increasingly gained popularity in North Korea, with a growing inflow of pirated DVDs and TV dramas smuggled from China.
"People living in coastal areas in South Hwanghae Province can easily watch South Korean broadcasting, and some residents said they even watched the live coverage of the inaugural address of President Lee Myung-bak," a 38-year-old defector, who fled from the North last year, said in a video shown during a seminar. "I think 99 percent of North Korean residents have seen South Korean dramas at least once or twice."
Another defector, who wished to remain anonymous, said it was difficult to think of a large demonstration happening as North Koreans "still cannot think of channeling their frustration through political power," but did not dismiss the possibility of an "explosion," given the socio-economic woes.
*** TOPIC OF THE WEEK (Part 2)
SEOUL (Yonhap) - While the recent civic uprisings in the Middle East mark people's perennial frustration of authoritarian corruption and economic disparities, few will refute the fact that the rallying cries were amplified from the proliferation of communication through such means such as mobile phones and social networking services (SNS).
As the world observes Muslim countries that appear to be on the cusp of revolution, there seems little doubt that authorities in North Korea -- a country with its own generations-long family dictatorship and fair share of economic woes -- are also closely monitoring the situation.
But does North Korea, which is heading for the first-ever third-generation power transition in the history of any communist state, have the elements in place for a similar movement?
In terms of infrastructure, the totalitarian regime appears to be, in a strictly limited fashion, heading somewhat in that direction, more lately embracing the mobile and communications revolution.
According to Pyongyang media reports, North Korea has seen a significant increase in its 3G mobile phone network, first launched in December 2008 by the Koryolink joint venture between the North Korean government and Egypt's Orascom Telecom Holding.
According to a quarterly earnings report by the Cairo-based firm in November of last year, the number of subscribers in North Korea nearly quadrupled from 69,261 in September 2009 to 301,199 the following year.
Despite the growth, it should be noted that the overall "mobile penetration" still remains at 1 percent -- centered around state, military and commerce elites -- in the country that has a per capita gross domestic product of US$1,900 and a population of 24 million.
North Korea first launched the mobile phone service in Pyongyang in November 2002 but banned it after a deadly explosion in the northern Ryongchon train station in April 2004, possibly out of concern that it could be used in a plot against the regime.
In 2008, the country repealed its policy and introduced a 3G mobile phone network in a joint venture with Orascom. The regime is reportedly building a factory to produce its own mobile phones.
Regarding hardware manufacturing, North Korea was reportedly planning to commence production of its own proprietary mobile phones, given what the country called an increased demand for wireless communication.
In April of last year, the Choson Sinbo, a pro-Pyongyang newspaper published in Tokyo, said the North Korean regime was building a factory to produce its own phones.
Despite the propaganda reports highlighting the people's ever-growing loyalty to their "Dear Leader" and the government, there's really no refuting among outsiders that the people are fed up with the nation's perpetual state of poverty and a virtual lack of human rights, most evident in the number of people risking their lives to flee the country.
More than 20,000 North Koreans have come to South Korea since the 1950-53 Korean War, which ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty. A large portion of them have arrived in recent years, indicating deepening troubles in the North. Most North Koreans flee via China.
The U.S. Freedom House stated in a recent report that, "North Korea is a totalitarian dictatorship and one of the most restrictive countries in the world. Every aspect of social, political and economic life is tightly controlled by the state. The regime denies North Koreans all basic rights, subjects tens of thousands of political prisoners to brutal conditions and maintains a largely isolationist foreign policy."
For decades the North Korean economy has been on a downward path after inviting international sanctions from its past two nuclear tests and persistent military provocations. The government's failed currency reform in late 2009 -- which knocked two zeros off its banknotes -- only brought about chaos in the markets and drove up inflation.
And with the state of affairs clearly in the doldrums, the country is in the process of observing the third-generation power succession. Last year, the 68-year-old leader Kim Jong-il made Kim Jong-un, his youngest son in his late 20s with no known prior experience in political or military matters, a four-star general and appointed him to high-ranking government and party posts.
Moreover, small and sporadic scuffles, mainly against crackdowns on merchants in markets and conflicts from cases of theft stemming from poverty, have been reported more frequently since 2000, according to North Korean human rights organizations in Seoul.
According to the Seoul-based Good Friends, several merchants reportedly got into a large scuffle with police guards in a market in Chongjin, North Hamgyong Province in August 2008. According to the group, known to have a large number of sources in the North, quarrels are often seen in markets in the cities of Haeju and Pyongsong, and in other regions.
Also reported was an incident in March 2010, where workers in the city of Kanggye, Jagang Province, were caught after having robbed a corn reserve out of starvation. In December 2008, a North Korean flag that had a star ripped out and replaced with an "X" was reportedly found at a security post in Kuchang County, South Hamgyong Province.
So the question remains, amid the developments in the Middle East, whether there is the slight possibility of a massive people's uprising. The answer? To many experts in South Korea, it's most unlikely.
"Unlike Tunisia, where its government's corruption was divulged through Wikileaks, there is a strictly controlled limitation of the distribution of information in North Korea even if some shocking corruption could be revealed," said Dong Yong-seung, a senior researcher on North Korea at the Samsung Economic Research Institute.
Dong said that using the Internet to organize a revolt, similar to those in Egypt and Tunisia, was impossible in reality because the Internet in the North is screened, and access is limited to the elite.
Kim Yoo-hyang, a researcher at the National Assembly Research Service, also noted that compared to the Muslim nations, North Korea's Internet penetration rate among the masses was significantly low and even information distributed through the Internet was strictly monitored.
"There have been reports that the North Korean government has in the past run simulation programs of what may happen if it opened up the Internet to the masses. They reportedly opted not to open up the Net," Kim said.
A former North Korean official who defected to the South said that the level of people's frustration is quite strong but not strong enough to mandate a movement of an organized level.
"People may revolt against local authorities with regard to the overall deteriorating level of livelihood, but it really is difficult to dream of a dynastic revolution," said the defector, requesting anonymity.
Some observers, however, take note of what they call potential "cracks," centered around the border shared with China, and that North Koreans are getting a glimpse of the outside world and are possibly being influenced by this.
For instance, many small media outlets specializing in North Korean affairs in the South are well known for handing Chinese-made mobile phones to North Koreans in the border area to get tips on the latest developments in the country.
Such people are used as sources in reporting on North Korea, but they could also serve as channels for North Koreans to receive regular information about the outside world.
The reported popularity of South Korean television shows and other pop culture contents may also serve as a catalyst in inciting a sense of free-market democracy in the North, or at least in the border regions.
In December, the People for Successful Corean Reunification, a Seoul-based group of defectors, said that South Korea's pop culture and fashion trends have increasingly gained popularity in North Korea, with a growing inflow of pirated DVDs and TV dramas smuggled from China.
"People living in coastal areas in South Hwanghae Province can easily watch South Korean broadcasting, and some residents said they even watched the live coverage of the inaugural address of President Lee Myung-bak," a 38-year-old defector, who fled from the North last year, said in a video shown during a seminar. "I think 99 percent of North Korean residents have seen South Korean dramas at least once or twice."
Another defector, who wished to remain anonymous, said it was difficult to think of a large demonstration happening as North Koreans "still cannot think of channeling their frustration through political power," but did not dismiss the possibility of an "explosion," given the socio-economic woes.
