China likely to be discreet in hosting N. Korea's leader-in-waiting

By Sam Kim
SEOUL, May 20 (Yonhap) -- In hosting the heir-apparent son of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, China will likely exercise discretion for fear of being taunted for backing a dynastic succession for an ally that continues to flout international warnings, officials and experts said Friday.
Kim Jong-un, 29 at most, on Friday made his first known trip to China, North Korea's foremost political and economic benefactor. Kim's trip, which sources in both South Korea and China have confirmed, has long been anticipated since he emerged publicly as successor to his aging father last September.
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said Kim Jong-un's main goal in traveling to China is to flaunt his standing as North Korea's leader-in-waiting.
"The North Korean leadership is trying to dispel outside doubts about the hereditary succession by seemingly winning China's approval for Kim Jong-un's visit to the top ally and supporter," Yang said.
If completed, the succession would mark the first back-to-back father-to-son power transfer in any modern state. It would also come despite the deepening economic crisis in the communist country that is believed to be diverting the lion's share of its resources into developing weapons of mass destruction.
Personal details about Kim Jong-un remain scarce. North Korea almost never confirms outside reports concerning its leadership. Quoting high-level defectors and intelligence sources, South Korean media have said the round-faced young man graduated from a military college in North Korea after spending part of his teens in Switzerland. Unveiled to the world as a four-star general last year, he was soon given the position of vice chairman of the top military governing body within the Workers' Party.
"Kim Jong-un's visit appears to be focused on showing the world he is indeed the legitimate successor to Kim Jong-il despite the short lapse of time since his emergence," a senior South Korean government official said, declining to be identified as his comments were of a speculative nature.
Despite the meteoric rise, China may be less than enthusiastic about the visit that would not have been possible had Beijing's leadership not granted it, another government official said.
"Considering the doubts about Kim Jong-un's leadership ability and his age, it's unlikely that China's top leaders will roll out the red carpet for him," the official said, also declining to be named. "There is also some pressure on Chinese leaders who would not want to be seen as embracing a dynastic succession."
Analysts say China has little choice but to condone North Korea's unruly behavior that runs counter to communist notions let alone international norms. Pushing to be recognized as a nuclear power, North Korea has conducted two nuclear tests since 2006 despite warnings from around the world. In November last year, it bombarded a South Korean border island, killing two people.
The North, however, is largely considered a buffer zone for China, whose political and economic clout is increasingly at odds with that of the United States, experts on China say.
"Rather than trying to meet with the highest-ranking officials, Kim Jong-un will seek to meet with Vice Premier Xi Jinping," who is seen as China's future leader, said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute near Seoul.
"Such a meeting will help pave the ground for North Korea and China to maintain their relations despite a generational leadership change in each side down the road," Cheong said. North Korean strongman Kim Jong-il and Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed in a meeting held last August to hand over "the baton of traditional Pyongyang-Beijing friendship to the rising generation."
Kim Jong-il, who is believed to have accelerated the power succession since he suffered a stroke in 2008, has made six known visits to China since he grabbed power in 1994, when his father and North Korea founder, Kim Il-sung, died of a heart attack.
Analysts have long speculated Kim Jong-il would soon have his youngest son travel to China in a bid to get Beijing's seal of approval on the succession plan and allow Kim Jong-un to hone his diplomatic skills.
The relationship between the two communist allies is not as rosy as it appears, observers believe. China had initially opposed Kim Jong-il's rise as successor to Kim Il-sung while Pyongyang has no choice but to rely on Beijing to rein in the consequences of isolation linked to its development of weapons of mass destruction.
Kim Jong-un's visit comes amid accelerating international efforts to revive six-party talks that aim to dismantle the North's nuclear arms programs through aid and other diplomatic support.
China, which hosts the talks that bring together the U.S., the two Koreas, Russia and Japan, has refrained from action that may spoil the mood in North Korea bent on completing the succession.
Beijing essentially recognized the succession plan when its public security minister visited Pyongyang in February and said he "warmly" congratulated Kim Jong-un on his election as a vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party.
As of Friday afternoon, Kim was reported to be heading to Mudanjiang in northeast China after arriving in the border city of Tumen by train.
samkim@yna.co.kr