ID :
188873
Thu, 06/16/2011 - 00:36
Auther :
Shortlink :
https://oananews.org//node/188873
The shortlink copeid
China's role crucial in any N.K. leadership crisis: expert
North Korean instability either from the death of its ailing leader or a failed attempt to hand over power to his son, known to be under 30, will likely be a crisis facing the next presidents of South Korea, the United States and China, a U.S. expert said Wednesday.
Victor Cha, a professor at Georgetown University, stressed that the key to weathering such a crisis is better cooperation among the three key regional players.
"No one can predict when this will happen, but there is a better than 50-percent chance that Kim (Jong-il) could depart from the scene before the next American president leaves office," he said in a report. Kim, 69, reportedly suffered a stroke in 2008.
Another cause of instability could be an uncontrollable escalation of North Korea's continued belligerence, he added.
But Cha, who doubles as the Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, questioned the degree of trilateral cooperation, citing Beijing's attitude towards Pyongyang's provocations so far.
"In the name of communist brotherhood, Beijing has basically acted like North Korea's defense lawyer in the court of public opinion," he claimed.
When North Korea conducted a nuclear test in 2006, China dodged pressure by passing criticism on to the then-Bush administration, which had refused dialogue, Cha said. He served at the White House's National Security Council under the Bush administration.
He said China also dealt in a lukewarm manner with the North's second nuclear test in 2009 and two deadly attacks on the South last year.
Cha said Beijing should put pressure on Pyongyang by slashing economic assistance, saying it can inflict real pain on the regime.
"It would seem to make good sense to start working with the United States and ROK (South Korea) today if China wants to ensure its place on the peninsula tomorrow," he said.
Victor Cha, a professor at Georgetown University, stressed that the key to weathering such a crisis is better cooperation among the three key regional players.
"No one can predict when this will happen, but there is a better than 50-percent chance that Kim (Jong-il) could depart from the scene before the next American president leaves office," he said in a report. Kim, 69, reportedly suffered a stroke in 2008.
Another cause of instability could be an uncontrollable escalation of North Korea's continued belligerence, he added.
But Cha, who doubles as the Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, questioned the degree of trilateral cooperation, citing Beijing's attitude towards Pyongyang's provocations so far.
"In the name of communist brotherhood, Beijing has basically acted like North Korea's defense lawyer in the court of public opinion," he claimed.
When North Korea conducted a nuclear test in 2006, China dodged pressure by passing criticism on to the then-Bush administration, which had refused dialogue, Cha said. He served at the White House's National Security Council under the Bush administration.
He said China also dealt in a lukewarm manner with the North's second nuclear test in 2009 and two deadly attacks on the South last year.
Cha said Beijing should put pressure on Pyongyang by slashing economic assistance, saying it can inflict real pain on the regime.
"It would seem to make good sense to start working with the United States and ROK (South Korea) today if China wants to ensure its place on the peninsula tomorrow," he said.
