ID :
18938
Thu, 09/11/2008 - 15:51
Auther :
Shortlink :
https://oananews.org//node/18938
The shortlink copeid
(EDITORIAL from the Korea Herald on Sept. 11)
Ready for all scenarios
Intelligence reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il may have suffered a stroke has the government in a flurry of activity as it tries to confirm the facts and prepare to respond.
Rumors of Kim's illness have been circulating for some time now. When he failed
to appear at the military parade marking the 60th anniversary of the
establishment of North Korea on Tuesday, it became clear that something was
amiss.
If it is true that Kim is indeed unable to conduct sate affairs, it is a
destabilizing factor in inter-Korean relations and will have a direct impact on
the North Korean denuclearization process.
Without a clear successor, there may be a prolonged power vacuum in the North.
The country, which has been under a cult of personality for 60 years will find a
lack of central figure disorienting, to say the least.
Any interim leadership may be marred by power struggles in the top ranks. Or
perhaps the hard-line military may have already assumed power, as has been
suggested by intelligence sources.
Because of the potentially destabilizing effect on the security of the Korean
Peninsula, the South Korean government should be thorough in preparing for the
eventuality that Kim may no longer be in control in the North.
The recent threats and actions to restart the Yongbyon nuclear facility have
coincided with the disappearance of Kim from public sight, lending credence to
speculation that Kim may be too ill to conduct state affairs.
Indeed, if the military have assumed power in Pyongyang, the whole six-party
process aimed at denuclearizing North Korea may come to an abrupt halt. The
hard-line North Korean military will not readily give up their nuclear deterrent,
and the country may retreat to isolation as a consequence.
The government is taking a cautious position, saying that speculations regarding
Kim's health have to be confirmed. It is not yet time to go into crisis
management mode, according to the Unification Ministry.
Whether this latest speculation about Kim's health turns out to be correct or
not, the new South Korean administration should prepare for all eventualities
that may arise from Kim's removal from power. While intelligence on North Korea
is notoriously difficult to obtain and hard to confirm, this does not mean that
the government cannot be ready to respond to various scenarios.
(END)
Intelligence reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il may have suffered a stroke has the government in a flurry of activity as it tries to confirm the facts and prepare to respond.
Rumors of Kim's illness have been circulating for some time now. When he failed
to appear at the military parade marking the 60th anniversary of the
establishment of North Korea on Tuesday, it became clear that something was
amiss.
If it is true that Kim is indeed unable to conduct sate affairs, it is a
destabilizing factor in inter-Korean relations and will have a direct impact on
the North Korean denuclearization process.
Without a clear successor, there may be a prolonged power vacuum in the North.
The country, which has been under a cult of personality for 60 years will find a
lack of central figure disorienting, to say the least.
Any interim leadership may be marred by power struggles in the top ranks. Or
perhaps the hard-line military may have already assumed power, as has been
suggested by intelligence sources.
Because of the potentially destabilizing effect on the security of the Korean
Peninsula, the South Korean government should be thorough in preparing for the
eventuality that Kim may no longer be in control in the North.
The recent threats and actions to restart the Yongbyon nuclear facility have
coincided with the disappearance of Kim from public sight, lending credence to
speculation that Kim may be too ill to conduct state affairs.
Indeed, if the military have assumed power in Pyongyang, the whole six-party
process aimed at denuclearizing North Korea may come to an abrupt halt. The
hard-line North Korean military will not readily give up their nuclear deterrent,
and the country may retreat to isolation as a consequence.
The government is taking a cautious position, saying that speculations regarding
Kim's health have to be confirmed. It is not yet time to go into crisis
management mode, according to the Unification Ministry.
Whether this latest speculation about Kim's health turns out to be correct or
not, the new South Korean administration should prepare for all eventualities
that may arise from Kim's removal from power. While intelligence on North Korea
is notoriously difficult to obtain and hard to confirm, this does not mean that
the government cannot be ready to respond to various scenarios.
(END)
