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196231
Thu, 07/21/2011 - 10:29
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https://oananews.org//node/196231
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SINGAPORE GDP GROWTH FORECAST REMAINS AT 5-7 PCT, BUT UNCERTAINTIES AHEAD
By Tengku Noor Shamsiah Tengku Abdullah
SINGAPORE, July 21 (Bernama) -- Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the republic's central bank, says Singapore's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast remained between five and seven per cent, but uncertainties have increased.
Its Managing Director Ravi Menon said the Ministry of Trade and Industry and MAS were reviewing Singapore's GDP growth forecast.
"For now, the 5-7 per cent forecast remains intact. But if the pick-up from the downturn in the second quarter is weaker than expected, growth could come in at a lower range.
"As you know, economic growth took a sharp-step down in Q2 following the strong performance in Q1," he said when releasing the authority's 2010/11 annual report here Thursday.
He said Singapore's trade-related sectors bore the brunt of the impact. Both manufacturing output and re-exports saw sequential declines in Q2.
"In year-on-year terms, GDP growth averaged 4.7 per cent in the first half of this year.
"Looking at the second half of year, prognosis for global economy has taken on a more cautious tone," he said.
He cited the disruption to regional supply chains, in the aftermath of Japanese earthquake, as more severe than initially expected.
The rise in oil prices, due to the unrest in the Middle East-North Africa, dampened global demand while there were more uncertainties now in the US and Europe compared with three months ago.
However, Ravi said: "But we expect growth in our external markets to continue, albeit, at a slow and uneven pace.
On balance, he was confident the Singapore economy should register
moderate growth for the rest of the year.
Nevertheless, he warned that beyond current uncertainties, significant risk remained in the global economy and financial systems that could derail growth.
In emerging Asia, he said there were upside risks to inflation.
"If central banks are forced to tighten monetary policies, more growth could be jeopardised," he said.
While saying that MAS was concerned about fiscal sustainability, Ravi added that the main global risk was the ongoing European debt crisis.
He said if there was a contagion and core European banks are affected, there could be a severe credit squeeze and pullback in economic activities.
"MAS is closely monitoring developments in Europe," he added.
SINGAPORE, July 21 (Bernama) -- Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the republic's central bank, says Singapore's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast remained between five and seven per cent, but uncertainties have increased.
Its Managing Director Ravi Menon said the Ministry of Trade and Industry and MAS were reviewing Singapore's GDP growth forecast.
"For now, the 5-7 per cent forecast remains intact. But if the pick-up from the downturn in the second quarter is weaker than expected, growth could come in at a lower range.
"As you know, economic growth took a sharp-step down in Q2 following the strong performance in Q1," he said when releasing the authority's 2010/11 annual report here Thursday.
He said Singapore's trade-related sectors bore the brunt of the impact. Both manufacturing output and re-exports saw sequential declines in Q2.
"In year-on-year terms, GDP growth averaged 4.7 per cent in the first half of this year.
"Looking at the second half of year, prognosis for global economy has taken on a more cautious tone," he said.
He cited the disruption to regional supply chains, in the aftermath of Japanese earthquake, as more severe than initially expected.
The rise in oil prices, due to the unrest in the Middle East-North Africa, dampened global demand while there were more uncertainties now in the US and Europe compared with three months ago.
However, Ravi said: "But we expect growth in our external markets to continue, albeit, at a slow and uneven pace.
On balance, he was confident the Singapore economy should register
moderate growth for the rest of the year.
Nevertheless, he warned that beyond current uncertainties, significant risk remained in the global economy and financial systems that could derail growth.
In emerging Asia, he said there were upside risks to inflation.
"If central banks are forced to tighten monetary policies, more growth could be jeopardised," he said.
While saying that MAS was concerned about fiscal sustainability, Ravi added that the main global risk was the ongoing European debt crisis.
He said if there was a contagion and core European banks are affected, there could be a severe credit squeeze and pullback in economic activities.
"MAS is closely monitoring developments in Europe," he added.
