LDP's general election strategy may not go as smoothly as expected+

TOKYO, Sept. 22 Kyodo - The Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election, which ended Monday with a landside victory for Taro Aso, was apparently intended as a run-up to the next general election.

But a series of unexpected incidents including the resignation of the farm
minister and financial fears stemming from the failure of a major U.S.
financial house is casting a shadow over the party's plan to ride the
popularity it has gained from choosing a new leader into the lower house
election.
LDP members, including outgoing Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, pinned their hopes
on the fact that a showy presidential election involving five candidates would
help boost the party's support rate.
The election came after Fukuda abruptly announced his resignation on Sept. 1,
saying he felt it would be better if he stood down and handed over the reins to
someone new.
The LDP's attempt to win public support following Fukuda's announcement
initially proved successful, with the support rate for the party rising 8.1
percentage points from August to 36.8 percent, while that of the opposition
Democratic Party of Japan fell 3.2 points to 27.0 percent, according to a Kyodo
News poll conducted early September.
Yoshiaki Kobayashi, a professor at Keio University, cited two reasons behind
the rise in the LDP's support rate -- expectation that the unpopular Fukuda
would be replaced with Aso, and an increase in the LDP's media exposure due to
the presidential election.
Kobayashi said the LDP is hoping to bring about a repeat of the landslide
victory it enjoyed in the 2001 House of Councillors election following the LDP
presidential race, when former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi triumphed to
succeed unpopular Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori.
According to Kobayashi, the 2001 presidential election with four candidates
drew much public attention, boosting the LDP's support rate and contributing to
a major victory for the party in the upper house election. ''They want to see
that dream (realized) again,'' he said.
The LDP wants to call a snap election and take advantage of Aso's popularity.
According to the Kyodo poll, Aso garnered the highest support rate at 35.3
percent for his suitability as next prime minister.
But troubles stemming from mishandling of the tainted-rice scandal and the
concerns over the financial system following the collapse of Lehman Brothers
Holdings Inc. may pour cold water on the LDP, which is increasingly moving
toward holding the next election in late October.
''If we cannot foresee the end of the fall in stock prices, we will face
criticism that we are holding an election merely to suit our own convenience,''
a senior LDP upper house member said.
Opposition parties are also stepping up their attacks on the LDP, with some
criticizing it for creating a political vacuum at a time when such grave
problems have occurred.
DPJ Diet affairs chief Kenji Yamaoka told reporters, ''Can we neglect these
problems because of the presidential election?''
Hisaoki Kamei, secretary general of the People's New Party, said the LDP ''has
no qualification or ability to hold the reins of the government'' as they make
the election feel like a national festival and yet only party members can vote.
Aso's position as frontrunner from the outset of the presidential race could
have made people think that the election result was predetermined and caused
them to lose interest in it, even though five candidates stumped nationwide.
Kobayashi said that the presidential election lacked fervor compared with the
2001 leadership race, as there were no dramatic overtones.
''Although it gathered steam initially, people began to think 'Are they still
at it?' and started to talk about who would be the next secretary general as
they could easily predict the outcome,'' he said.
Media reports that all LDP presidential candidates except former Defense
Minister Yuriko Koike will be appointed to important posts also made people
apathetic, he added.
But the lack of excitement surrounding the LDP presidential election will not
automatically work to the advantage of the DPJ, which chose Ichiro Ozawa as its
chief unopposed.
While the LDP's election lacked steam, the DPJ did not even hold an election,
Kobayashi said, suggesting that the DPJ also failed to use an opportunity to
increase media exposure and boost its popularity.
''It is difficult to think that either of them will score an overwhelming
victory'' in the next lower house election, he said.
Aso, for his part, appeared confident that his party would remain in power.
''The LDP has faced crisis many times...Japan has also faced various things,
including the oil crisis, but they have always recovered,'' Aso said during the
election campaign.
''Similarly, I think the current situations are crises for the LDP and for
Japan, but they will bounce back,'' he added.