FOCUS: Protest plans in Taiwan spook China before landmark summit: official+

TAIPEI, Oct. 14 Kyodo - China, rattled by protest plans in Taiwan, is wary of locking in dates for what officials say will be a landmark summit in Taipei between the two sides in just weeks, while Beijing is generally loath to reciprocate Taipei's goodwill, officials and experts say.

''China got what it wanted with a KMT government, but now it doesn't know what
to do with what it got,'' says Derek Mitchell, a security expert at the Center
for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S. think tank.
The KMT refers to Taiwan's ruling Nationalist Party, which takes a soft line
toward historic rival China.
Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou, of the KMT, took office May 20 on the back of
a ''China-friendly'' platform, vowing to usher in an era of warmer ties across
the Taiwan Strait.
Less than a month in office, Ma's administration inked aviation and tourism
pacts with Beijing after a round of negotiations there.
Further talks for pacts on establishing cargo links and direct passenger flight
routes across the strait are scheduled to take place in Taipei ''either at the
end of this month or early next month,'' says Lai Shin-yuan, chairwoman of the
Mainland Affairs Council, Taiwan's top agency for policy implementation on
China.
China's top negotiator for Taiwan, Chen Yunlin, is expected to lead a
delegation to Taipei for the talks, with Ma meeting Chen face-to-face in the
highest-level meeting ever between the two sides in Taiwan.
But just when Chen is coming, who will comprise his delegation and what the
itinerary will be are questions that have lingered too long, with Lai's
ballpark time-frame fast approaching.
For Taipei, says one senior official, Beijing is cutting it close because of
the island's opposition party, which is planning major protests to either
coincide with, or foreshadow, Chen's visit.
''China is paying really close attention to what's happening domestically in
Taiwan, because the situation here could have an impact on cross-strait
relations,'' said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of
the political sensitivity surrounding the summit. ''That's why the schedule
hasn't been finalized.''
Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party, which leans toward formal independence
for the island, has planned a march and rally Oct. 25, with hordes of
supporters thronging downtown Taipei to protest Chen's arrival, says Lin
Chenwei, DPP international affairs director.
An overnight sit-down somewhere in the capital, Lin says, will follow the
rally, although the timing and location for that event are still under
consideration.
Former President Chen Shui-bian, who faces multiple graft investigations, has
vowed to join the events, likely boosting attendance.
Justice Ministry officials are probing Chen Shui-bian and former first family
members for wiring abroad tens of millions of U.S. dollars of campaign
contributions, a charge Chen has admitted to, and for allegedly dipping into
state coffers to the tune of about US$500,000 while he was president.
But the former president and DPP heavyweight denies illegality, panning the Ma
administration for investigating him to make him a political scapegoat.
Despite a falling-out with his own party, Chen Shui-bian has held rallies to
whip up public sentiment against Ma and China, with critics warning the
embattled former president could use the occasion of the summit to further
organize rallies and distract the public from his legal troubles.
But while China drags its feet in deciding dates for the Taipei summit,
Beijing, experts say, is dithering overall in reciprocating Ma's goodwill.
Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at CSIS, says Beijing is unlikely to make big
concessions, including on Ma's requests for participation in U.N.-affiliated
agencies and removal of the more than 1,000 ballistic and cruise missiles with
which Beijing targets the island.
''President Ma's request for China to remove the missiles is setting the bar
too high,'' Glaser says.
China and Taiwan split in 1949 amid civil war, with Beijing since claiming
Taipei as part of its territory and threatening to attack the self-ruled island
should it formalize its de facto independence.
As part of its strategy to unify Taiwan with the mainland, China also blocks
the island from participation in U.N. agencies and has employed ''checkbook
diplomacy'' to buy away Taipei's few remaining allies.
Since Ma took office, however, he has proposed a ''diplomatic truce'' with
China and reversed the independence-leaning rhetoric of the former DPP-led
government under Chen Shui-bian. So far, Beijing has been receptive to Ma, but
generally reluctant to reciprocate his goodwill beyond improving atmospherics
and signing technical agreements.
And while China has apparently stopped luring away Taiwan's allies, its
restraint shows signs of slipping, says Douglas Paal, former director of the
American Institute in Taipei, the de facto U.S. embassy here.
''It appears Beijing has already tacitly assented to the diplomatic truce,'' he
says, adding, ''At some point, though, things will happen that won't fit that
pattern.''