ID :
27140
Wed, 10/29/2008 - 09:13
Auther :
Shortlink :
https://oananews.org//node/27140
The shortlink copeid
FOCUS: Aso's intention to delay election could spell bumpy road ahead
TOKYO, Oct. 28 Kyodo - Prime Minister Taro Aso declared on the eve of taking office in late September that his ''mission'' is to call a House of Representatives election in a bid to give the ruling coalition a boost against the opposition bloc in the divided Diet.
But a month into his job, the 68-year-old prime minister appears to be hoping
to cling to his post for as long as possible in the face of unexpectedly severe
global economic conditions, and speculation is rife that the election will be
postponed until next year.
Postponing the election until next year, however, would not necessarily benefit
Aso, as tough confrontations with the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan
and possible friction with his Liberal Democratic Party's coalition partner,
the New Komeito party, over the election schedule would follow, some pundits
say.
Aso has not publicly said he will avoid an early election, but some experts
think he may delay it all the way until the current term of lower house members
ends in September 2009, while trying to notch up some notable achievements in
the meantime.
Aso, an outspoken former foreign minister, was elected as LDP president in late
September to become prime minister, reflecting hope in the ruling party that
his strong name recognition would bring victory at the next general election
which was then widely expected to be called in the near future.
In a monthly publication issued in October, Aso made comments in an article,
which he said he wrote shortly before taking office, that implied his
determination to dissolve the lower house possibly at the beginning of the
ongoing extraordinary Diet session that was convened late September.
''At the opening of the Diet, I would like to openly present my policies and
the LDP's policies to (DPJ) President (Ichiro) Ozawa and ask him whether he is
for or against them, and go to the people,'' Aso said in the publication, while
adding that his ''first mission is to seek the judgment of the public.''
But the deepening U.S.-triggered credit crisis and tumbling global stock prices
have apparently made him think twice, leading him to say he will prioritize
implementing economic measures over calling an election.
His approval rating at the time of his government's inauguration also proved to
be lower than the initial rating of his predecessor Yasuo Fukuda, and is
further slipping to around 40 percent in some media polls now.
Mikitaka Masuyama, a Keio University professor specializing in politics, said
that Aso seems to have had in mind from the start the two options of either
holding an election shortly after drawing voters' attention through a
''festive'' LDP presidential election or delaying it until the term for the
lower house members expires.
''And the U.S. financial problem gave him a reason to choose the latter
option,'' he said.
With the key Nikkei index closing Monday at its lowest level in 26 years in a
reflection of the current global economic crisis, a source close to the prime
minister said, ''Speedy reaction is vital for market measures. There is no time
to think about a dissolution (of the House of Representatives).''
But delaying the election could also mean running the risk of being forced into
dissolving the lower house for a snap election without being able to find a
suitable time amid bleak economic prospects.
''If we miss the right time for a dissolution, there will be no option (left)
and the administration will just crumble,'' said a senior House of Councillors
member of the ruling coalition who is involved in Diet affairs.
Aso is the third prime minister from the LDP who has not had to face a general
election since the ruling coalition of the LDP and New Komeito secured a
two-thirds majority in the lower house in September 2005 under then Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
In contrast to the popular Koizumi's five and a half years in office, his
successors Shinzo Abe and Fukuda both suddenly announced their resignations
after just less than a year in office, having faced sluggish support ratings
and struggled in the Diet following the ruling coalition's loss in the July
2007 upper house election.
With an eye on the next general election, Aso is likely to continue focusing on
delivering results, especially on the economy, such as by seeking to implement
additional pump-priming measures in response to the global financial crisis.
He has already succeeded in passing a fiscal 2008 supplementary budget and in
filling a post in the Bank of Japan leadership which had been vacant for the
last six months due to political wrangling, thanks to the more cooperative
approach the DPJ adopted recently in the hope that helping Aso clear his
priorities would eventually pressure him into calling an election.
But now that the election is likely to be delayed, the DPJ is showing signs of
returning to a more confrontational stance that would make it difficult for Aso
to swiftly pass key proposals in the Diet, including a government bill to
extend Japan's refueling mission in support of U.S.-led antiterrorism
operations in and near Afghanistan beyond its expiry in January.
DPJ Diet affairs chief Kenji Yamaoka told reporters Tuesday that the DPJ will
refuse to hold a vote on the refueling bill in the opposition-controlled upper
house this month, saying, ''We will thoroughly deliberate necessary issues.''
Earlier in October, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura said that
if Aso decides not to hold an election in November, it is also not likely to be
held in December, as doing so could disrupt the year-end work of compiling the
state budget for fiscal 2009 starting next April.
Machimura also referred to the possibility of an election being held in April
after the state budget for the next fiscal year is enacted, or in September
when the lower house members' terms run out.
But a delay in the election is likely to draw opposition from New Komeito,
which has been calling for an early election as it wants more time to fully
prepare for the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election to be held next summer.
New Komeito, which is backed by the major lay Buddhist organization Soka
Gakkai, has provided the LDP with a powerful vote-gathering machine in
elections.
Tensions arose between the two parties in the closing days of the Fukuda
administration, especially over differences in election strategy, prompting
speculation that the discord had pressured Fukuda into deciding to step down.
Keio professor Masuyama said the current global financial crisis has served as
a ''convincing reason'' for Aso to persuade New Komeito over not holding an
early election, but friction ''could emerge'' if the election were to be
delayed much further.
Despite the expected difficulties, Aso, also a manga comic enthusiast, appeared
upbeat during a stump speech Sunday in Tokyo's Akihabara district, known as a
magnet for anime and computer geeks.
''On diplomacy and the economy, Taro Aso is the most useful politician right
now. That's my personal belief,'' he told a cheering crowd.
But a month into his job, the 68-year-old prime minister appears to be hoping
to cling to his post for as long as possible in the face of unexpectedly severe
global economic conditions, and speculation is rife that the election will be
postponed until next year.
Postponing the election until next year, however, would not necessarily benefit
Aso, as tough confrontations with the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan
and possible friction with his Liberal Democratic Party's coalition partner,
the New Komeito party, over the election schedule would follow, some pundits
say.
Aso has not publicly said he will avoid an early election, but some experts
think he may delay it all the way until the current term of lower house members
ends in September 2009, while trying to notch up some notable achievements in
the meantime.
Aso, an outspoken former foreign minister, was elected as LDP president in late
September to become prime minister, reflecting hope in the ruling party that
his strong name recognition would bring victory at the next general election
which was then widely expected to be called in the near future.
In a monthly publication issued in October, Aso made comments in an article,
which he said he wrote shortly before taking office, that implied his
determination to dissolve the lower house possibly at the beginning of the
ongoing extraordinary Diet session that was convened late September.
''At the opening of the Diet, I would like to openly present my policies and
the LDP's policies to (DPJ) President (Ichiro) Ozawa and ask him whether he is
for or against them, and go to the people,'' Aso said in the publication, while
adding that his ''first mission is to seek the judgment of the public.''
But the deepening U.S.-triggered credit crisis and tumbling global stock prices
have apparently made him think twice, leading him to say he will prioritize
implementing economic measures over calling an election.
His approval rating at the time of his government's inauguration also proved to
be lower than the initial rating of his predecessor Yasuo Fukuda, and is
further slipping to around 40 percent in some media polls now.
Mikitaka Masuyama, a Keio University professor specializing in politics, said
that Aso seems to have had in mind from the start the two options of either
holding an election shortly after drawing voters' attention through a
''festive'' LDP presidential election or delaying it until the term for the
lower house members expires.
''And the U.S. financial problem gave him a reason to choose the latter
option,'' he said.
With the key Nikkei index closing Monday at its lowest level in 26 years in a
reflection of the current global economic crisis, a source close to the prime
minister said, ''Speedy reaction is vital for market measures. There is no time
to think about a dissolution (of the House of Representatives).''
But delaying the election could also mean running the risk of being forced into
dissolving the lower house for a snap election without being able to find a
suitable time amid bleak economic prospects.
''If we miss the right time for a dissolution, there will be no option (left)
and the administration will just crumble,'' said a senior House of Councillors
member of the ruling coalition who is involved in Diet affairs.
Aso is the third prime minister from the LDP who has not had to face a general
election since the ruling coalition of the LDP and New Komeito secured a
two-thirds majority in the lower house in September 2005 under then Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
In contrast to the popular Koizumi's five and a half years in office, his
successors Shinzo Abe and Fukuda both suddenly announced their resignations
after just less than a year in office, having faced sluggish support ratings
and struggled in the Diet following the ruling coalition's loss in the July
2007 upper house election.
With an eye on the next general election, Aso is likely to continue focusing on
delivering results, especially on the economy, such as by seeking to implement
additional pump-priming measures in response to the global financial crisis.
He has already succeeded in passing a fiscal 2008 supplementary budget and in
filling a post in the Bank of Japan leadership which had been vacant for the
last six months due to political wrangling, thanks to the more cooperative
approach the DPJ adopted recently in the hope that helping Aso clear his
priorities would eventually pressure him into calling an election.
But now that the election is likely to be delayed, the DPJ is showing signs of
returning to a more confrontational stance that would make it difficult for Aso
to swiftly pass key proposals in the Diet, including a government bill to
extend Japan's refueling mission in support of U.S.-led antiterrorism
operations in and near Afghanistan beyond its expiry in January.
DPJ Diet affairs chief Kenji Yamaoka told reporters Tuesday that the DPJ will
refuse to hold a vote on the refueling bill in the opposition-controlled upper
house this month, saying, ''We will thoroughly deliberate necessary issues.''
Earlier in October, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura said that
if Aso decides not to hold an election in November, it is also not likely to be
held in December, as doing so could disrupt the year-end work of compiling the
state budget for fiscal 2009 starting next April.
Machimura also referred to the possibility of an election being held in April
after the state budget for the next fiscal year is enacted, or in September
when the lower house members' terms run out.
But a delay in the election is likely to draw opposition from New Komeito,
which has been calling for an early election as it wants more time to fully
prepare for the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election to be held next summer.
New Komeito, which is backed by the major lay Buddhist organization Soka
Gakkai, has provided the LDP with a powerful vote-gathering machine in
elections.
Tensions arose between the two parties in the closing days of the Fukuda
administration, especially over differences in election strategy, prompting
speculation that the discord had pressured Fukuda into deciding to step down.
Keio professor Masuyama said the current global financial crisis has served as
a ''convincing reason'' for Aso to persuade New Komeito over not holding an
early election, but friction ''could emerge'' if the election were to be
delayed much further.
Despite the expected difficulties, Aso, also a manga comic enthusiast, appeared
upbeat during a stump speech Sunday in Tokyo's Akihabara district, known as a
magnet for anime and computer geeks.
''On diplomacy and the economy, Taro Aso is the most useful politician right
now. That's my personal belief,'' he told a cheering crowd.
