ID :
46232
Wed, 02/18/2009 - 14:32
Auther :
Shortlink :
https://oananews.org//node/46232
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ASIA'S UNEMPLOYED TO INCREASE BY 7.2 MILLION
By D. Arul Rajoo
BANGKOK, Feb 18 (Bernama) -- The number of unemployed in Asia is likely to increase by about 7.2 million from 2008 to this year.
This figure, according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), is at
a rate of 5.1 per cent, with women and youth hard-hit by rising unemployment.
It said that based on a scenario on economic growth projections,
together with labour market impacts from prior economic downturns, the number of
workers in vulnerable employment in Asia could rise by nearly 21 million while
the number of extreme working poor could climb by over 52 million, this year
alone.
The most pessimistic scenario sees the number of unemployed in the region
surging by 23.3 million, to a rate of 5.9 per cent, while vulnerable employment
could grow by an alarming 60 million, notes 'The Fallout in Asia: Assessing
Labour Market Impacts and National Policy Responses to the Global Financial
Crisis' report.
The report was prepared by the Bangkok-based ILO's Regional Office for Asia
and the Pacific for deliberation at a forum in Manila involving ministries of
labour and finance, senior United Nations, World Bank and government officials,
workers and employers' representatives from more than 10 Asia and the Pacific
countries, starting Wednesday.
A dramatic increase in working poverty of more than 140 million by this
year is projected under this scenario, representing a regression of the Asia and
the Pacific region to the working poverty rate of 2004.
It said that in Malaysia, the third quarter of 2008 labour force data showed
that employment in manufacturing fell to 17.6 per cent of total employment, a
drop from 19.0 per cent over the same period in 2007. Moreover, more job cuts
are expected in the electronics industry.
In Thailand, unemployment this year could reach 1.13 million, a substantial
rise from the third quarter 2008 level of 450,000, while in Vietnam, 300,000
additional workers in formal wage employment could be unemployed while more
than 35 million labourers in the countryside would likely face higher
underemployment.
By early this year, the outlook in most economies in Asia had deteriorated
and growth in the region is now expected to fall to the lowest level since the
Asian financial crisis, with forecasts of 2.3 per cent this year.
ILO said exports played a major role in Asia's phenomenal growth
performance, with many Asian economies highly reliant on exports to earn
foreign currency and fuel domestic development.
Heading into the crisis, manufacturing exports comprised more than 140
per cent
of GDP in Singapore, nearly 70 per cent in Malaysia, more than 40 per cent in
Cambodia and Thailand and more than 30 per cent in China, Korea, the Philippines
and Vietnam.
"As consumers in developed economies abruptly cut back on spending in 2008,
demand for Asia's exports have fallen sharply. Sales of labour-intensive
manufacturing products, including toys and games, footwear and clothing are down
sharply in the United States and Europe, as are higher value-added goods such as
computers and related equipment and automobiles," the report said.
Total world trade volumes are expected to contract this year - which would
be the first time that this has occurred since 1982 -- and thus, this important
source of growth in many Asian economies is unlikely to recover soon.
At the same time, foreign direct investments to developing countries would
shrink by more than 30 per cent this year.
ILO said that as migrant workers' incomes were at risk in the current
economic downturn, so too, are remittances, which represent a vital source of
income and foreign exchange for many Asian economies, and in particular, for
poor households.
Given that the number of unemployed is projected to increase, ILO said there
was very little chance that a sufficient number of new jobs would be created in
the region this year, to keep up with expected labour force growth.
Over 2009 and 2010, an estimated 51 million additional jobs will be needed
to absorb Asia's growing labour force, with the largest number of jobs needed in
Asia's largest economies -- India (20.3 million), China (10.9 million) and
Indonesia (3.6 million).
In China, for example, an estimated 6.1 million new college graduates will
enter the labour market in 2009, joining the four million from previous years
who are still seeking employment.
-- BERNAMA
BANGKOK, Feb 18 (Bernama) -- The number of unemployed in Asia is likely to increase by about 7.2 million from 2008 to this year.
This figure, according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), is at
a rate of 5.1 per cent, with women and youth hard-hit by rising unemployment.
It said that based on a scenario on economic growth projections,
together with labour market impacts from prior economic downturns, the number of
workers in vulnerable employment in Asia could rise by nearly 21 million while
the number of extreme working poor could climb by over 52 million, this year
alone.
The most pessimistic scenario sees the number of unemployed in the region
surging by 23.3 million, to a rate of 5.9 per cent, while vulnerable employment
could grow by an alarming 60 million, notes 'The Fallout in Asia: Assessing
Labour Market Impacts and National Policy Responses to the Global Financial
Crisis' report.
The report was prepared by the Bangkok-based ILO's Regional Office for Asia
and the Pacific for deliberation at a forum in Manila involving ministries of
labour and finance, senior United Nations, World Bank and government officials,
workers and employers' representatives from more than 10 Asia and the Pacific
countries, starting Wednesday.
A dramatic increase in working poverty of more than 140 million by this
year is projected under this scenario, representing a regression of the Asia and
the Pacific region to the working poverty rate of 2004.
It said that in Malaysia, the third quarter of 2008 labour force data showed
that employment in manufacturing fell to 17.6 per cent of total employment, a
drop from 19.0 per cent over the same period in 2007. Moreover, more job cuts
are expected in the electronics industry.
In Thailand, unemployment this year could reach 1.13 million, a substantial
rise from the third quarter 2008 level of 450,000, while in Vietnam, 300,000
additional workers in formal wage employment could be unemployed while more
than 35 million labourers in the countryside would likely face higher
underemployment.
By early this year, the outlook in most economies in Asia had deteriorated
and growth in the region is now expected to fall to the lowest level since the
Asian financial crisis, with forecasts of 2.3 per cent this year.
ILO said exports played a major role in Asia's phenomenal growth
performance, with many Asian economies highly reliant on exports to earn
foreign currency and fuel domestic development.
Heading into the crisis, manufacturing exports comprised more than 140
per cent
of GDP in Singapore, nearly 70 per cent in Malaysia, more than 40 per cent in
Cambodia and Thailand and more than 30 per cent in China, Korea, the Philippines
and Vietnam.
"As consumers in developed economies abruptly cut back on spending in 2008,
demand for Asia's exports have fallen sharply. Sales of labour-intensive
manufacturing products, including toys and games, footwear and clothing are down
sharply in the United States and Europe, as are higher value-added goods such as
computers and related equipment and automobiles," the report said.
Total world trade volumes are expected to contract this year - which would
be the first time that this has occurred since 1982 -- and thus, this important
source of growth in many Asian economies is unlikely to recover soon.
At the same time, foreign direct investments to developing countries would
shrink by more than 30 per cent this year.
ILO said that as migrant workers' incomes were at risk in the current
economic downturn, so too, are remittances, which represent a vital source of
income and foreign exchange for many Asian economies, and in particular, for
poor households.
Given that the number of unemployed is projected to increase, ILO said there
was very little chance that a sufficient number of new jobs would be created in
the region this year, to keep up with expected labour force growth.
Over 2009 and 2010, an estimated 51 million additional jobs will be needed
to absorb Asia's growing labour force, with the largest number of jobs needed in
Asia's largest economies -- India (20.3 million), China (10.9 million) and
Indonesia (3.6 million).
In China, for example, an estimated 6.1 million new college graduates will
enter the labour market in 2009, joining the four million from previous years
who are still seeking employment.
-- BERNAMA
