ID :
48094
Fri, 02/27/2009 - 22:31
Auther :
Shortlink :
https://oananews.org//node/48094
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Japan's key price gauge halts rise, sparks fear of deflation+
TOKYO, Feb. 27 Kyodo - Japan's key price gauge stopped rising in January for the first time in 16 months as falling gasoline and other energy prices continued to generate downward pressures, the government said Friday, sparking fears that the economy may slip back into deflation.
The core nationwide consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food
prices, was unchanged from a year earlier and stood at 100.5 against the base
of 100 for 2005, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said in a
preliminary report.
Inflation started fading after it peaked last summer with the index marking a
2.4 percent rise both in July and August. The January reading compared with the
average market forecast of a 0.1 percent fall in a Kyodo News survey.
Energy costs continued to lead falls in Japanese consumer prices.
Gasoline prices marked a 30.9 percent fall year on year while energy costs as a
whole dropped 8.2 percent.
Travel costs slowed their advance, the ministry said, with air fares gaining
only 3.6 percent, less than half their 7.7 percent increase in December. The
pace of rises in package tour prices was also cut due mainly to slides in fuel
surcharges.
Price rises for nonperishable foods slowed, rising 3.7 percent in January
against a 4.0 percent rise the previous month. Among them, eggs were up 4.4
percent, much slower than the 10.8 percent gain in December.
The core CPI is expected to fall into negative territory starting in February,
said Akira Maekawa, senior economist at UBS Securities Japan Ltd.
''We estimate the index will fall 0.1 percent in February and decrease as
sharply as 2 percent in July,'' Maekawa said. The expected falls reflect
''slides in energy and food prices as well as deterioration in the economy.''
Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities Co., echoed the
view, saying in his report that such results could be seen due to ''multiple
deflationary pressures.''
With fresh food prices considered, the January CPI remained unchanged from a
year before with the index standing at 100.7, failing to gain for the first
time in 16 months.
Excluding food and energy prices, the index lost 0.2 percent to 98.7, the first
decline in eight months. The indicator is seen as similar to the core consumer
price index in the United States, with some experts saying it better reflects
price trends.
The core CPI for Tokyo's 23 wards in February grew a faster-than-expected 0.6
percent from a year earlier to 100.4. The average projection was a 0.3 percent
increase.
The ministry pointed out that the slower pace of declines in gasoline costs --
down 26.8 percent against the 31.3 percent slide in January -- may have helped
ease the downward pressure on consumer prices.
Consumer prices in Tokyo are seen as a leading indicator of prices across Japan.
==Kyodo
2009-02-27 22:58:14
The core nationwide consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food
prices, was unchanged from a year earlier and stood at 100.5 against the base
of 100 for 2005, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said in a
preliminary report.
Inflation started fading after it peaked last summer with the index marking a
2.4 percent rise both in July and August. The January reading compared with the
average market forecast of a 0.1 percent fall in a Kyodo News survey.
Energy costs continued to lead falls in Japanese consumer prices.
Gasoline prices marked a 30.9 percent fall year on year while energy costs as a
whole dropped 8.2 percent.
Travel costs slowed their advance, the ministry said, with air fares gaining
only 3.6 percent, less than half their 7.7 percent increase in December. The
pace of rises in package tour prices was also cut due mainly to slides in fuel
surcharges.
Price rises for nonperishable foods slowed, rising 3.7 percent in January
against a 4.0 percent rise the previous month. Among them, eggs were up 4.4
percent, much slower than the 10.8 percent gain in December.
The core CPI is expected to fall into negative territory starting in February,
said Akira Maekawa, senior economist at UBS Securities Japan Ltd.
''We estimate the index will fall 0.1 percent in February and decrease as
sharply as 2 percent in July,'' Maekawa said. The expected falls reflect
''slides in energy and food prices as well as deterioration in the economy.''
Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities Co., echoed the
view, saying in his report that such results could be seen due to ''multiple
deflationary pressures.''
With fresh food prices considered, the January CPI remained unchanged from a
year before with the index standing at 100.7, failing to gain for the first
time in 16 months.
Excluding food and energy prices, the index lost 0.2 percent to 98.7, the first
decline in eight months. The indicator is seen as similar to the core consumer
price index in the United States, with some experts saying it better reflects
price trends.
The core CPI for Tokyo's 23 wards in February grew a faster-than-expected 0.6
percent from a year earlier to 100.4. The average projection was a 0.3 percent
increase.
The ministry pointed out that the slower pace of declines in gasoline costs --
down 26.8 percent against the 31.3 percent slide in January -- may have helped
ease the downward pressure on consumer prices.
Consumer prices in Tokyo are seen as a leading indicator of prices across Japan.
==Kyodo
2009-02-27 22:58:14
