Vietnam exceeds global forecasts with 8.23% GDP growth
Hanoi, October 10 (VNA) – Despite mounting pressures from a trade protectionism policy spreading across the world, Vietnam’s economy recorded an impressive growth rate in the third quarter this year, with gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 8.23% year-on-year.
According to data from the National Statistics Office (NSO), cited by many international news outlets, this marks the highest growth rate since 2011, highlighting the country’s strong adaptability amid global uncertainties.
Notably, this growth momentum continued even after the US officially imposed a 20% tariff on most imports from Vietnam starting August 7.
Reuters reported that Vietnam’s total import-export turnover reached over 680 billion USD by the end of September 2025, posting a trade surplus of 16.8 billion USD. Inflation in September stood at 3.38%, below the government’s target range of 4.5 – 5%, while industrial production in the third quarter rose by 9.1%. Foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursement in the first nine months of the year hit its highest level in five years.
Vietnam’s exports in September fell by 1.7% from August, marking the second consecutive monthly decline, mainly due to the new US tariff policy. However, the figure in the first nine months of the year still rose by 38% year-on-year, driven by strong growth in coffee, chemicals, and electronic components, which offset declines in textiles and footwear.
Vietnam’s total export earnings reached 128.57 billion USD in the third quarter, up 18.4% year-on-year, while imports rose 20.2% to 119.66 billion USD, maintaining a trade surplus of 8.91 billion USD.
International observers attributed these results to the agility of Vietnam’s production sector, particularly in electronics, chemicals, and renewable energy — the industries benefiting from global supply chain diversification and bilateral preferential tax policies.
According to the US-based website ainvest.com, Vietnam’s steady recovery is driven by three key factors - rising FDI, a strong rebound in international tourism, and robust growth in domestic consumption and credit. Moreover, low and stable inflation has given consumers greater spending power, helping sustain domestic demand. It noted that amid the impact of US tariffs on traditional exports, Vietnam is emerging as a new renewable energy hub in Asia. The manufacturing sector continued to expand in September 2025, with the Purchasing Managers' Index at 50.4, marking the third month of expansion, and indicating a “cautiously optimistic” business outlook.
The clean energy sector, especially solar and wind power, has become a standout performer. Although the US-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has warned of risks related to anti-dumping tariffs and competitive bidding mechanisms, investors still view Vietnam as having strong comparative advantages thanks to its abundant resources, competitive costs, and stable investment environment.
However, several reputable international institutions have cautioned that Vietnam still faces certain risks in the remaining months of the year. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the impact of US tariffs will gradually unfold in the last quarter of 2025 as export orders begin to reflect higher costs. The IMF estimates that the 20% tariff could reduce Vietnam’s GDP by 0.5–0.7 percentage points unless offset by public investment and domestic consumption.
International organisations such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecast that Vietnam’s growth will slow in the last quarter as global demand weakens and the impact of US tariffs becomes more evident. However, the baseline scenario still places Vietnam among Asia’s top-performing economies, with full-year growth projected at 6.6 – 7%, significantly higher than many other emerging markets.
Nguyen Ba Hung, an ADB economist, said the bank’s latest economic outlook released on September 30 raised Vietnam’s 2025 growth forecast, citing several positive factors, especially the continued rise in exports and foreign investment despite US tariff impacts.
According to international experts, if Vietnam sustains its three key pillars - stable FDI inflows, strong domestic consumption, and effective public investment - while advancing energy transition and digital transformation, the Government’s growth target in 2025 remains achievable under a favourable scenario.
Most international observers see the 8.23% growth in the third quarter as clear proof of Vietnam’s resilience and adaptability amid global trade turbulence. However, to reach the 8.5% annual target, experts said Vietnam must further restructure its growth model—moving away from labour-intensive exports toward a technology-driven, clean-energy, and innovation-based economy.
If successful, Vietnam will evolve from a supply chain beneficiary into a key driver of a new industrial value chain in Asia.-VNA
