N Korea may carry out third nuke test in 2010 - military experts.

SEOUL, December 25 (Itar-Tass) - North Korea may carry out its third
nuclear test and provoke next year military clashes on the border with the
South, which may cause further escalation of tension on the Korean
Peninsula, the Korea Institute for Defence Analyses (KIDA) said on Friday.
The KIDA report devoted to the trends of the development of the
situation in 2010 notes that North Korea's third nuclear explosion may be
staged in order to show to the world that official Pyongyang does not
intend to drop its nuclear weapons development programmes and is read to
become a nuclear power.
According to South Korea's Yonhap news agency, North Korea may
detonate a third nuclear device and provoke border clashes in the future
that could escalate tension on the Korean Peninsula, a report by a
state-run think tank said Friday. In a report on possible developments in
2010, the Korea Institute for Defence Analyses warned Pyongyang may test
another nuclear device to show the world that it has no plans to give up
its atomic weapons programme.
"Such a step could highlight that North Korea is a nuclear power," the
report said. It added that North Korea might even launch an
intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching US territories in
the Pacific and the western coast of North America. The communist country
tested its first nuclear weapon in October 2006 and another more powerful
device on May 25. The explosion that took place earlier in the year is
estimated to have had a yield five times that of the 2006 device, Yonhap
said.
"The recent explosion has been estimated to have had a 4-kiloton
yield, indicating that the North has made headway in developing an
operational nuclear weapon," the latest findings said. KIDA said that if
the international community starts to accept the North as a nuclear power,
this can cause public opinion in South Korea to move toward building up
its own nuclear deterrent capabilities. In addition, the institute said
the North may try to incite military clashes along the inter-Korean border.
It said if the North were to invade islands in the Yellow Sea just
south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL), it could trigger a strong response
by South Korea. Such developments may cause the dismantlement of the
armistice regime signed after the Korea War (1950-1953) and weaken the NLL
that has been the de facto sea border between the two countries, according
to Yonhap. There has been a total three clashes along the NLL so far, with
the latest taking place on November 10. KIDA, meanwhile said that although
clashes along the 248-kilometre demilitarised zone could take place, such
events will probably be short firefights between troops, while air-to-air
combat is not likely due to the North's weak Air Force assets.
The role of the de-facto inter-Korean border in the West Sea plays the
so-called Northern Limit Line (NLL). The NLL is a disputed maritime
demarcation line in the West Sea between North Korea and South Korea. It
acts as the de facto maritime boundary between the two Koreas.
The line was unilaterally set by the US-led United Nations military
forces on August 30, 1953 after the United Nations Command and North Korea
failed to reach an agreement. It is not officially recognised by North
Korea. In particular, it is not included into the Armistice Agreement of
1953 between the two states. The line was originally drawn to prevent
southern incursions into the north, however it role has since transformed
to prevent North Korean ships heading south. The line runs between the
mainland portion of Gyeonggi-do province that had been part of Hwanghae
before 1945, and the adjacent offshore islands, the largest of which is
Baengnyeongdo.
On October 9, 2006, the North Korean government issued an announcement
that it had successfully conducted a nuclear test for the first time. Both
the US Geological Survey and Japanese seismological authorities detected
an earthquake with a preliminary estimated magnitude of 4.2 in North
Korea, corroborating some aspects of the North Korean claims.
In April 2009, reports surfaced that North Korea has become a "fully
fledged nuclear power," an opinion shared by IAEA Director General Mohamed
ElBaradei. On May 25, 2009, North Korea conducted another nuclear test,
which is believed to have been the cause of a magnitude 4.7 seismic event.
The 6-way talks aim to find a peaceful resolution to the security
concerns as a result of the DPRK nuclear weapons programme. These talks
were a result of North Korea withdrawing from the NPT in 2003. Apparent
gains following the fourth and fifth rounds were reversed by outside
events. Five rounds of talks from 2003 to 2007 produced little net
progress until the third phase of the fifth round of talks, when North
Korea agreed to shut down its nuclear facilities in exchange for fuel aid
and steps towards the normalization of relations with the United States
and Japan. Responding angrily to the UN Security Council's unanimous
decision on April 13, 2009 to condemn North Korea over its April 5, 2009
failed satellite launch, North Korea declared on April 14, 2009 that it
would pull out of the six-party talks for good and that they would resume
their nuclear enrichment programme. North Korea has also expelled all
nuclear inspectors from the country.
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