N. Korea's nuclear test casts cloud over regional security

SEOUL, Jan. 6 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's purported successful test of a hydrogen bomb is expected to further dampen inter-Korean ties as South Korea vowed to make the North "pay the price" for its provocation, experts said. North Korea announced Wednesday that it has successfully conducted its first hydrogen bomb test, claiming that it has become a nuclear state that even possesses an H-bomb. The North's assertion has not been verified by outside experts. If confirmed, it will be the North's fourth nuclear test. The North conducted nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013. The North's move came as a surprise as there had been no signs of such a provocation. The North also did not inform the United States or China of its test before conducting it, unlike previous tests. Analysts said that the North's provocations will inevitably cast a cloud over Seoul-Pyongyang ties which had shown some signs of improvement following the two Koreas' rare deal on Aug. 25 to defuse tension. "Inter-Korean ties are expected to be strained for the time being," said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul. "Seoul-Pyongyang ties are likely to face a setback at least until the first half of this year." The two Koreas reached a rare agreement to ease tensions in August following heightened tensions sparked by a landmine blast near the inter-Korean border blamed on the North. As part of the deal, the two sides arranged reunions of families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War in October and saw inter-Korean civilian exchanges shoot up. But the two Koreas failed to produce any agreements at their two-day high-level talks which ended on Dec. 12, as they sparred over whether to resume a suspended joint tour program at Mount Kumgang in the North. Against this backdrop, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's New Year's message raised cautious hopes for better inter-Korean relations as he vowed to make efforts to improve ties with Seoul. He said that the North is open to having candid talks with the South. Kim also did not make any reference to his country's nuclear weapons program in his message on Jan. 1, which analysts said may reflect Kim's desire to improve ties with China. The North's provocation, however, proved that the North has no plans to ditch the North's simultaneous pursuit of nuclear and economic developments, commonly known as its "byeongjin policy," experts pointed out. "The North's H-bomb test indicates that the North will stick to its dual-track policy," said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies. "Pyongyang appears to have the intention to gauge responses from the global community with its detonation. And then the North is likely to decide on the direction of its diplomatic policy at its upcoming party congress." The Workers' Party of Korea, the North's ruling party, plans to hold its first congress in more than three decades in May when the North's leader is likely to unveil new lines of policies and conduct a major reshuffle. "The North seems to have a purpose of displaying its military prowess and its nuclear capability ahead of the party congress as the Kim Jong-un era has set in motion in earnest," said Kim, the professor at Dongguk University. "The North's detonation also appears to be aimed at eliciting loyalty from its people." Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, said that the North's move seemed to be aimed at recognizing the status of a nuclear state before U.S. President Barack Obama leaves office. "North Korea seems to intend to press Washington to open bilateral talks and eventually clinch a peace treaty with the U.S.," he said. "But it is doubtful whether Washington will engage in dialogue with Pyongyang." Meanwhile, the North's provocation is expected to further strain relations between China and North Korea, dimming the prospect over a possible visit by the North's leader to China for a summit, experts say. North Korea's ties with China have been severely frayed following the North's third nuclear test in February 2013. Signs of better ties had emerged after Liu Yunshan, the Chinese Communist Party's fifth-ranked official, visited Pyongyang and held talks with the North's leader. But the prospect for Pyongyang-Beijing ties has become murky since the North's all-female propaganda group Moranbong Band abruptly canceled its Dec. 12 concert in Beijing hours before it was supposed to begin. After the North's hydrogen bomb test, China expressed "firm" opposition to Pyongyang's move, calling on the North to honor international obligations. sooyeon@yna.co.kr (END)