US Rep. analyst believes Trump “likely to lose”

New York, Sept 5, IRNA - A former advisor to the US Republican Party told IRNA on Saturday that with the protests continuing, US President Donald Trump’s conditions are shaky, though is too early to call him the loser of the loser of the October elections. No one should, just based on the polls, come to the conclusion that Trump will be a one-term president, said James George Jatras. Jatras added that the polls in 2016 said that Hillary Clinton would be the president, but some voters hid their inclination toward Trump from the pollsters for some reason. He said some polls show that Trump is going to lose, but still there are some other polls that have shown “there seems to be some anxiety among some elemental of the population that it will be much much worse if Biden gets elected.” Saying that there is some concern on the Democratic side because the police have retreated from some neighborhoods, which has risen violence there, he added that white women in the suburbs do not like Trump, but they feel so anxious, insecure and susceptible that some may rally toward Trump. It seems that the protests and violence have hurt Biden more than Trump, he said. Answering a question about Trump’s methods of fighting the COVID-19 and its effects on the elections, he said that there is “a fundamental split in the American population” in this regard. He said some believe that the virus had a negative impact on the economy, but others may say it is not the virus that hurt the economy, rather “it is the measures being imposed to deal with the virus,” including the lockdown, the quarantine, closing the restaurants, restrictions on travel, etc. These “two different mentalities” which makes it hard to decide how the virus has affected Trump’s conditions, he said. Regarding candidate Joe Biden’s choosing Kamala Harris - a Californian senator - as his running mate, Jatras said this fact does not have a big positive effect for him because Biden will win California even without Harris, and also most African-American and Asian votes are going to Biden even without her. It is “not clear” how she helps Biden, Jatras said. The advisor to the US Republican Party told IRNA that his reasons for the claim that Trump is “likely to lose” are “primarily demographic”. He went on point out that the US does not have a single national election, but an individual election in each of the states. If you look at the key states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan, based on “anecdotal evidence”, some people who did not vote for him in 2016 my vote for him this time, Jatras said. He added, “[Trump’s] natural base of voters, which is essentially older white voters, is smaller than it was in 2016 – just by natural decrease and increased emigration.” It seems that the demographic conditions are against Trump, but the issues are probably working in his favor, the analyst concluded.