The Obama administration: What to expect in the second term?

TEHRAN,Dec.1(MNA)--While U.S. President Barack Obama need not worry about future elections during the coming years, his foreign policy is unlikely to drastically shift or deviate from traditional diplomacy, or the so-called “leadership from behind,” and multilateralism of the past four years. Yet it is important to take a nuanced approach toward explaining certain foreign policy choices that distinguish the Obama administration from that of its predecessor. What separates the Bush administration from the Obama presidency is the latter’s apparent aversion to direct military intervention -- a policy choice which is largely grounded in pragmatic realism. So too is the Obama administration’s preference for engaging Islamists in Egypt and Tunisia, especially in a context where democracy promotion rhetoric and U.S. national and security interests may overlap -- if not fully dovetail. That said, there is no doubt that the idealism of the Obama Speech at Cairo University (2009) has met with some tough, hardnosed policies toward addressing Israeli-Palestinian tensions, especially since the November 14, 2012, when the Gaza war broke out. His idealism, alongside U.S. “soft power,” has lost its vigor, especially in the face of foreign policy trade-offs vis-à-vis the Arab uprisings as well as inconsistent U.S. foreign policy toward supporting the new Arab publics in Egypt and Bahrain. Likewise, the imposition of sanctions on Syria but not on other pro-West but authoritarian regimes has thrown President’s Obama’s rhetoric into question. The bloody uprising in Syria has thrust the Obama administration into an increasingly tough and complicated position as the conflict shows signs of evolving into a full-fledged civil war. This perspective, however, does not entirely gloss over the fact that external intervention and support for rebels -- both inside and outside the country -- has raised fears that the unrest in Syria will most likely broaden into a regional war. Ultimately, seeking a solution to the crisis in Syria requires the active participation of Russia and Iran in any conceivable regional agreement. Realist instincts of the Obama administration might be in the right place: Iran’s regional policies still matter -- possibly more so than in the past. Typically U.S. presidents tend to leave a legacy behind, as China diplomacy was associated with President Richard Nixon and the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel became one of the highlights of Jimmy Carter presidency. Is President Obama keen on improving -- if not normalizing -- U.S.-Iran relations after more than three decades of strained relations between the two countries? Is this diplomatic capital worthy of spending as far as President Obama is concerned? Some experts approvingly note that no other policy choice can prove more effective in bringing about stability and security to a region faced with the dismal reality of sectarian, ethnic, military, and political tensions than restoring U.S.-Iran relations. Two key questions loom large: (1) How critical is the reconciliation with Iran insofar as regional stability and security is concerned? And (2) will domestic and structural constraints of U.S. foreign policy decision making processes, such as a strong Jewish lobby and a recalcitrant Congress, allow U.S. national interests to adapt to the new realities in the region? Historians and political scientists caution of the persistent gap between U.S. values and interests, as policy reality often contradicts aspirational rhetoric. But they also remind us of the fact that the exercise of pragmatism in foreign policy requires adopting a muddling through approach that tends to differ from one case to other. Since President Obama operates in such a setting, nothing resembling a substantially different foreign policy should be expected from him in the next four years. There is still plenty of ground for optimism if the Obama administration’s pragmatic instincts kick in. Mahmood Monshipouri is an associate professor of International Relations at San Francisco State University. He is currently working on a book about the democratic uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa. (By Mahmood Monshipouri)