Trump should break cycle of U.S. dependence on China for solution to N.K. nuclear issue: expert

By Chang Jae-soon WASHINGTON, Dec. 4 (Yonhap) -- The incoming Donald Trump administration should break U.S. dependency on China for resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, as Chinese pressure will never be sufficient in getting Pyongyang to reconsider its nuclear pursuit, an American expert said. Scott Snyder, a senior analyst on Korea at the Council on Foreign Relations, made the suggestion on Saturday, raising questions about whether the newly adopted U.N. Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on Pyongyang will have their intended results. "North Korea's provocation cycle depends on China's fundamental interest in peninsular stability to ensure that the umbilical cord from China through which Pyongyang receives essential 'livelihood' support is never irreparably cut. Moreover, if early signs of distress were to develop in Pyongyang, China's choke points to North Korea would quickly become lifelines once again," Snyder said in an article. The expert also noted that the cycle of U.S. dependence on China could continue under Trump, as the incoming president has said that he would pressure Beijing to exercise more of its influence over Pyongyang because it is basically China's problem to fix. "But to move toward a solution on North Korea, the Trump administration will have to find a way to break the cycle of dependency on China. Cooperation with China is necessary to exert maximum pressure on North Korea, but cooperation with China by itself may never be sufficient to present Kim Jong-un with an existential choice between survival and denuclearization," Snyder said. Following the passage of each UNSC resolution imposing even tougher sanctions on North Korea, a pattern has emerged that begins with the feeling that China has outperformed expectations by agreeing to tougher sanctions than expected, Snyder said. "Then, there is the realization that China has left sufficient loopholes and wiggle room to ensure that North Korea pays a price for its nuclear weapons development, but not so large a price that North Korea's stability is endangered," he said. "Finally, just when it becomes clear that China is easing off on the pressure, the cycle repeats itself, and North Korea conducts yet another nuclear or missile test," he added. The latest sanctions, adopted last week, center on putting a significant cap on North Korea's exports of coal, its single biggest export item and source of hard currency, and banning exports of four additional minerals. These two measures and other restrictions, if fully enforced, would strip the North of at least $800 million in annual revenues, a sizable sum that accounts for more than a quarter of the impoverished nation's total exports, estimated at about $3 billion. North Korea leader Kim Jong-un has already rejected the notion that there could even be a choice between survival and denuclearization by adopting the "byeongjin" policy of simultaneous nuclear and economic development as the fundamental strategic line of the regime, Snyder said. "This leaves U.S. policymakers straining to maximize cooperation with China while simultaneously seeking the missing ingredient independent of cooperation with China that can finally fill the gap," he said. jschang@yna.co.kr (END)