Vladimir Putin is wary of rapid changes in the GCC

Last month was marked by a string of troubling developments in the Gulf, a region that until recently was seen as an island of stability and calm in the troubled waters of the Middle East. The diplomatic crisis over Qatar that erupted following Donald Trump’s visit to Riyadh as well as the Saudi royal succession shake-up are indicative of major changes happening in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) power balance. Moscow has been watching these developments very closely, wary of their implications for Russia’s standing in the region, specifically when it comes to Syria and Iran, as well as its fragile relations with the Gulf. Arguably the first signs of the looming changes in the Saudi Kingdom came in May with the visit of Donald Trump to Riyadh and the solid support for the future king that the U.S. president expressed then. Moscow did feel threatened by this rapidly unfolding dynamic and felt that its presence in the Middle East would no longer be unchecked, something that it has enjoyed for the last two years. The boycott of Qatar followed and there is little doubt presently that the successful coercion of Doha into Saudi demands would have been a triumphant backdrop for Mohammed bin Salman’s appointment as crown prince. Moscow normally sees diplomatic courtesy as an important tool of maintaining good relations with partners, but what is surprising about Russia’s reaction to the royal shakeup is that there has been no congratulatory note sent to Riyadh on the occasion and no official statements released by the Kremlin, which would normally be done within hours. Silence, however, speaks more than words in this case and is indicative of the fact that Moscow is treating news coming out of Saudi Arabia with extreme caution. Russia found itself almost in the crossfire in the crisis over Qatar. Having embarked on a campaign to rally diplomatic support globally Doha reached out to Moscow, an unlikely ally in its row with Riyadh. Even since the killing of the Chechen rebel leader, Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, in Doha and the trial of two Russians accused in the murder, the relations between Russia and Qatar have remained strained. The issue of terrorism financing has historically worried the Kremlin, first in relation to the North Caucasus, where, as Russia claims, Qatari and Saudi money propped extremists in the 90s, and more recently in Syria, where it fights extremist groups allegedly funded out of the Gulf. But despite this record, Moscow at least indirectly indicated its support for Doha in the recent diplomatic crisis, which is evidenced by the surprising intensity of contacts between Russian and Qatari officials. The Kremlin was visibly unsettled by the strategy towards the isolation of Doha that Saudi Arabia as well as the U.A.E. opted for and interpreted it as an attempt to change the regional power balance. Doha is a known rebel within the GCC and is powerful enough to exercise independent foreign policy thus keeping its neighbors in check. This is what contradicts the rise of Mohammed bin Salman to power in Saudi Arabia recently since he is emerging as the next generation of Saudi leaders with the ambition to consolidate support for his policy of confronting Iran and governing the GCC under Riyadh’s leadership. Russia sees merit in maintaining the existing GCC balance and preventing the emergence of one pole of influence led by a young inexperienced hothead in Riyadh, which would arguably make the council too powerful and unpredictable. The reaction to the Qatar crisis coming from Washington is another element that pre-determined the Kremlin’s sympathies with Doha. With Donald Trump taking credit for the isolation of Qatar a unique opportunity emerged for Russia to assert itself with a state that was being rejected by the Americans, which goes in line with Vladimir Putin’s policy of reaching out to rogue states that fall out of America’s grace and is a long-term investment. Moscow has not yet fully comprehended what the promotion of Mohammed bin Salman means for Russia in a number of contexts. Since the accession of Salman bin Abdelaziz to the throne in Saudi Arabia and the appointment of his son as minister of defense and later Deputy Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman has been in charge of the Russia file in the kingdom. He has been instrumental in upgrading the status of the relationship between the two countries. On Mohammed bin Salman’s watch Russia and Saudi Arabia struck a crucial deal to cut oil production with the hope of ending the global oil glut that deeply affected economies of the two countries. During Mohammed bin Salman’s first visit to Russia in June 2015, Moscow and Riyadh signed a flurry of agreements, including one on nuclear energy cooperation as well as a $10 billion investment deal, all of which were aimed at reaching a breakthrough in bilateral relations. To top that, Mohammed bin Salman’s every trip to Russia involved a discussion of an arms deal, which clearly hits the right note in the Kremlin that has an ambition to expand its client portfolio in the Gulf. All in all, Mohammed bin Salman’s tenure in office gave a much-needed boost to bilateral relations, yet it has not marked an emergence of an alliance due to existing political disagreements. Despite Russia and Saudi Arabia managing to compartmentalize their relations, disagreements over Syria have been a central theme of their relations. As the Minister of Defense, Mohammed bin Salman has been in charge of the Saudi policy towards Syria and its largely unsuccessful military campaign in Yemen. The concern that persists in Russia is that Mohammed bin Salman will increasingly resort to military options as a means of projecting the image of a skilled and experienced leader ready to take over from his father in the near future. This may not only affect Russia’s standing in Syria, but also contain the spread of its clout across the Middle East. Despite this duality of the Kremlin’s view of Mohammed bin Salman, he is arguably a better interlocutor for Moscow than his cousin Mohammed bin Naif would have been. Saudi Arabia’s “counter-terrorism czar”, Mohammed bin Naif was a firm ally of the United States, historically had no interactions with Russia and never shied away from criticizing the Kremlin’s policy towards the Middle East. Despite this seemingly positive development that is the deposition of Mohammed bin Naif, Moscow is not convinced that the cycle of changes has come to an end in Saudi Arabia. Mohammed bin Salman’s position is still shaky and his kingship may be at risk if he continues with his overly ambitious military-focused foreign policy. *Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu Agency.