CYCLONE-MONSOON 2LST

This shift is believed to might have caused some
disruption in ventilation of air and hence resulted in
weakening of the system.
However, this relief could be shortlived as there is a
strong possibility of the cyclone moving along the coast for
over 24 to 36 hours and re-emerging into Bay of Bengal only to
intensify further.
Experts believe that the re-newed cyclone may move in a
North-North-East direction and move toward Bangladesh or
Mynamar.
This weakening of Laila appears to have given IMD the hope
that monsoon may not be disrupted.
Predictions suggest that the inter-tropical convergence
zone (ITCZ), considered as the birth place of low pressure
systems, in the Arabian Sea as also the Bay of Bengal may
remain active even after the weakening of the cyclone.
An active ITCZ raises the hope for possible formation of
an onset vortex like low pressure system over the Arabian Sea
subsequent to the weakening of cyclone.
IMD Director General Ajit Tyagi also maintained that the
weather office has not changed its forecast for monsoon onset.
The IMD last month forecast a normal rainfall for this
year with a precipitation of 98 per cent of the Long Period
Average (LPA), subject to a model error of plus or minus five
per cent for the entire season (from June to September).
Last year, the weather office had forecast a rainfall of
96 per cent plus or minus five per cent in April and then fine
tuned it to 93 per cent plus or minus four per cent. But, the
country received a rainfall of 77 per cent of the LPA only for
the season.
The normal monsoon forecast is expected to bring cheers
to over 235 million farmers who had faced drought last year
due to failed monsoon.
A good monsoon could help in sowing of rice, sugarcane,
soyabean and corn and lead to a rebound in the agricultural
output. PTI SKU
RDM


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