MARKET FOR 30,900 NEW COMMERCIAL AIRPLANES WORTH US$3.6 TRILLION OVER NEXT 20 YEARS

By Tengku Noor Shamsiah Tengku Abdullah

KUALA LUMPUR, July 16 (Bernama) -- Boeing forecasts a US$3.6 trillion market
for new commercial airplanes over the next 20 years as world economies rebound
and strong demand for new and replacement aircraft spurs growth.

The Boeing 2010 Current Market Outlook (CMO), released on Thursday in
London, foresees a market for 30,900 new commercial passenger and freighter
airplanes by 2029.

The report, now in its 46th year of public release, is widely regarded as
the most comprehensive and respected analysis of the commercial aviation market,
and reflects the improving, yet still unstable conditions facing the industry.

"The world market is doing much better than last year, but there
are still challenges,” said Randy Tinseth, vice-president of Marketing, Boeing
Commercial Airplanes, in a statement to Bernama Friday.

“Looking at 2010, we see a world economy that continues to recover. We
expect the world economy to grow above the long-term trend this year. As a
result, both passenger and cargo travel will grow this year. Airline revenue and
yields are up, but fuel prices remain volatile.”

Passenger traffic is expected to grow at 5.3 per cent annual rate over the
long-term, driven by economic growth from regions with diverse airplane needs.

The single-aisle airplane segment will continue to dominate growth worldwide
due to the proliferation of low-cost carriers, emerging markets such as India,
China and Southeast Asia, and continuing instability of fuel prices.

The single-aisle segment has outpaced long-haul markets over the last decade
and will continue to trend upward as older fleets are retired.

The Asia-Pacific region shows the most robust market gains, with
China leading the way.

“Today, about one-third of all airline traffic touches the
Asia-Pacific region, and as a result of the growth in this market, by 2029
almost 43 per cent of all traffic will be to, from, or within the region,” said
Tinseth.

The airlines of the Asia-Pacific region will also be the largest buyer of
twin-aisle airplanes – about 40 per cent of the total demand.

The Middle East, which has been one of the fastest growing regions for air
travel in recent years, represents another very strong market.

Airlines in the Middle East have been growing rapidly by taking advantage of
geography, demographics, airplane technology and well-coordinated growth and
investment plans.

The North American and European markets will see substantial demand for
replacement airplanes as they retire aging less-efficient jets.

Robust growth in emerging markets with dynamic populations and growing
incomes
will lead towards a more balanced airplane demand worldwide.

Boeing predicts that airlines will grow by responding to their passengers'
preference for more flight choices, lower fares and direct access to a wider
range of destinations.

Air carriers will focus on offering more flights using more efficient
airplanes, rather than on using significantly larger airplanes. As a result, the
market for large airplanes (747 and larger) is small at 720 aircraft.

But it remains an important market segment with a value of US$220 billion.
It
is a market largely for replacement of existing airplanes, not additional
growth, with 45 per cent of the demand from Asian customers and 23 per cent from
Middle East customers.

Boeing projects the world freighter fleet to increase from 1,750 to 2,980
airplanes -- an increase of more than two-thirds. This growth will require 2,490
freighters.

Additions to the fleet will include 740 new-production freighters (worth
US$180 billion at today’s catalog prices) and 1,750 airplanes converted from
passenger models.


Large (more than 80 tonnes/88.2 tonnes capacity) freighters will account for
520 new-build airplanes. Medium (40 to 80 tonnes/44.1 to 88.2 tons) freighters
will total 210 airplanes.

Virtually all of the standard-body freighters (less than 45 tonnes/49.6
tonnes) are expected to come from conversions of passenger airplanes.

The recession resulted in significantly reduced air cargo traffic
in 2009, the base year for the Boeing forecast.

From this low-traffic base, Boeing forecasts that world air cargo traffic
will increase at an annual average of 5.9 per cent through 2029. Included is the
current strong year traffic growth that Boeing estimates will reach nearly 14
per cent over full-year 2009 levels – a significant spike in the 20-year growth
projection.

"The inclusion of the high-traffic growth levels in 2010, following the
recession, is driving our cargo forecast upward,” said Tinseth.

“However, the strength of the industry and its growth will continue to be
driven by sound fundamentals – speed and reliability, consumer product
innovation and global industrial interdependence.”

The report and a feature, which provides an interactive database
of forecast numbers, can be found at www.boeing.com/cmo.

For a brief video of Randy Tinseth talking about Boeing’s Current
Market Outlook, visit http://bit.ly/9DXjtc

-- BERNAMA




Delete & Prev | Delete & Next