After tumultuous first half of presidency, Lee faces another bumpy ride

By Lee Chi-dong
SEOUL, Aug. 22 (Yonhap) -- Halfway through his five-year tenure, President Lee
Myung-bak has set the right policy direction for the remainder of his presidency,
but success is not guaranteed, given a number of tough tasks he will be faced
with in the second half, analysts said.
Lee's first two and a half years were marked by controversy over his policy that
was criticized by some as catering to the wealthy, a jolting wave of street
protests over his decision to resume U.S. beef imports, a global economic crisis
and sharp military tension with North Korea, especially since the deadly sinking
of a South Korean warship blamed on the North.
Although it has engineered a fast recovery of Asia's fourth-largest economy, the
Lee administration has struggled to tackle the widening gaps between the haves
and the have-nots.
Opposition lawmakers and other critics argued that South Korea's democracy has
regressed and the social polarization has deepened under Lee's high-handed
leadership that lacks communication within political circles and with the people.
On the contrary, Lee's supporters emphasize his diplomatic feats, including
Seoul's successful bid to host a G-20 summit in November and the construction of
nuclear reactors in the United Arab Emirates. They also praise the government's
unyielding stance toward the North's continued provocations.
Reflecting the mixed sentiment, the ruling bloc was on a rollercoaster ride in
recent elections. The pro-government Grand National Party (GNP) suffered a
shocking defeat in the June 2 local elections, dealing a blow to the president's
reform drive.
The GNP, however, turned the table with a small but meaningful win in the July 28
parliamentary by-elections. Lee's approval ratings have remained close to 50
percent, according to a survey by the presidential office, Cheong Wa Dae.
Seemingly, at least, the mood has been created for a fresh start. The president
has replaced several of his key presidential staff and conducted a sweeping
reshuffle that affected the prime minister and half of the Cabinet-level
ministers.
Cheong Wa Dae officials said Lee will refocus his agenda on reaching out to the
working class and other grassroots, termed "seomin" in Korean, in line with his
"centrist and pragmatic" policy and the goal of advancing the country's politics,
economy, society, and diplomacy.
Industrialization was South Korea's top national agenda in the 1970s and
democratization in the 1980s. Now, the government is campaigning to make South
Korea an "advanced, top-notch" country.
"There is no major election scheduled until the general elections in April 2012.
So it is an opportune time for President Lee to focus efforts on producing
accomplishments without being swayed by political interests," a Cheong Wa Dae
official said.
Still, pundits expect the latter half of Lee's presidency to be as turbulent as
the previous half.
"I think President Lee has set the right direction to push for a pro-seomin
policy and co-prosperity between conglomerates and smaller firms. But it is hard
to be optimistic (of the outcome)," said Lee Nae-young, a professor of political
science at Korea University and head of the Asiatic Research Institute at the
Seoul-based school.
He voiced doubts about the Lee government breaking its conservative image and
whether the public will feel the sincerity of its policy measures.
The four-river restoration project will remain a source of political dogfight.
The government is determined to press ahead with project, worth US$20 billion,
aimed at preventing floods and securing stable water supply in spite of fierce
backlash from opposition parties, environmentalists and religious circles fearful
of ecological disaster.
Another dilemma for the president is a lingering conflict with Park Geun-hye,
former GNP leader who is said to be among the strongest candidates to become
South Korea's next leader. Lee and Park, daughter of the late former president
Park Chung-hee, have been at odds since their closely-contested race to become
the GNP's presidential candidate in 2007.
The president's reconciliation with Park is also important not only in his
campaign for national unity but also for his political reform drive, as about 50
ruling party lawmakers are loyal to Park.
"Politically, President Lee has weakened the role of Youido (where the National
Assembly and headquarters of political parties are located). He should form a
partnership with the civil community, a task which he failed in the first half,
and rev up the function of the political sector," said Shin Yul, a political
scientist at Myongji University in Seoul.
The issue of revising the Constitution and the electoral system will likely
emerge as a main political topic. In his recent Liberation Day speech, the
president demanded political parties start related discussions.
The country's Constitution has not been amended for two decades, and calls for
its modification are growing. Many cite loopholes in the current single five-year
presidential system.
Members of the GNP faction led by Park hope for a U.S.-style four-year presidency
allowing reelection, while Lee's aides prefer a power-sharing presidential system
in which the president deals mainly with diplomacy and national security and the
prime minister exerts more authority on domestic issues.
The main opposition Democratic Party (DP) accused the president of broaching the
sensitive subject in a bid to distract public attention from his policy debacle.
Shin said South Korea's leaders, including the late former President Roh
Moo-hyun, tended to pull the card as a way to prevent them from becoming an early
lame duck.
"What President Lee should be cautious about is to make excessive efforts not to
become a lame duck," Shin said.
Hahm Sung-deuk, a Korea University professor specializing in presidential
studies, also advised Lee to pursue small projects for substantial policy success
rather than seeking big projects in order to leave a lasting legacy.
lcd@yna.co.kr
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