(News Focus) N. Korean leader in China to clinch deal on successor: analysts

By Sam Kim

SEOUL, Aug. 26 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-il appears to be mainly trying to secure China's recognition of his son as his successor in his presumed visit Thursday to his country's neighboring benefactor, analysts said.

Government sources in Seoul said earlier Thursday that Kim, 68, left on a train
to China in what would be his second visit to North Korea's staunch ally this
year if confirmed by Chinese or North Korean authorities.
Kim may be accompanied by his third son, Jong-un, believed to be groomed to take
over the North, a process that outsiders could get a glimpse into when the ruling
Workers' Party holds a rare and crucial leadership meeting early next month.
"The succession issue probably wasn't clearly set out in May" when Kim Jong-il
visited China for a meeting with President Hu Jin-tao, Yang Moo-jin, a professor
at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies, said. "This time, it appears that
China has made up its mind about Kim's youngest son."
During Kim's five-day trip to China in May, he agreed on a series of economic
cooperation projects with President Hu.
Kim Sung-joo, a political science professor at Seoul's Sungkyunkwan University,
agreed, saying, "China now seems ready to embrace Kim Jong-un."
Both analysts said Pyongyang probably offered a key step forward in its
denuclearization efforts, a key issue to Beijing as the world's second largest
economy tries to secure stability in its region.
On Thursday, China's top nuclear delegate, Wu Dawei, was set to arrive in South
Korea after having spent last week in Pyongyang to meet with his counterpart
there and reportedly "reached a full consensus" on all matters of mutual concern.
"China has seen the succession issue tied to the nuclear issue while the North
hasn't," Yang said, expecting the leaders of the two countries to narrow their
differences this week.
North Korean and Chinese authorities have not yet confirmed Kim's trip, in line
with their practice of announcing such a high-level visit only after it ends. If
confirmed, Kim's trip will be his sixth since he took over from his father, Kim
Il-sung, in 1994.
The assumed visit comes as former U.S. President Jimmy Carter is in Pyongyang on
a private, humanitarian mission to secure the release of an American man
imprisoned there for months.
Aijalon Mahli Gomes, a 30-year-old from Boston, was sentenced to eight years of
hard labor and fined an equivalent of US$700,000 for trespassing in January.
Carter met with North Korea's nominal head of state after arriving Wednesday in
Pyongyang on a private jet.
It remains unclear whether Kim met with Carter before leaving for China. Kim met
with former U.S. President Bill Clinton when he traveled to Pyongyang in August
last year to successfully win the release of two U.S. journalists also imprisoned
for illegal entry.
"It may not matter whether Kim meets Carter or not at a time like this,"
Professor Kim said. "The relationship between North Korea and the United States
is at its worst level in years, and any deal between Kim and Carter will have
limited political impact."
China is North Korea's foremost ideological and economic supporter. It fought on
the side of North Korea during the 1950-53 Korean War that ended in a truce and
has recently refrained from supporting allegations that Pyongyang is responsible
for the sinking of a South Korean warship in March in the Yellow Sea.
Kim Jong-il's visit may also bode well for the fate of four South Koreans and
three Chinese fishermen held in North Korea after they alleged violated the
country's eastern exclusive economic zone.
China, through its embassy in Pyongyang, has called for their release on
humanitarian grounds, but was apparently met with a refusal amid strained
relations between the divided Koreas.
samkim@yna.co.kr
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