(LEAD) (News Focus) Fresh U.S. sanctions symbolic, but impact in doubt: analysts

(ATTN: UPDATES at bottom with S. Korean official's comments)
By Chang Jae-soon
SEOUL, Aug. 31 (Yonhap) -- The new U.S. sanctions against North Korea are highly
symbolic as they target Pyongyang's leadership, but it is unclear how hard they
will hit the communist regime that has already been under an array of
international sanctions, analysts said Tuesday.
Washington added a total of eight North Korean entities and four individuals to
its sanctions blacklist for their alleged involvement in proliferation of weapons
of mass destruction, trade in conventional arms, procurement of luxury goods and
other illicit activities.
The new sanctions are aimed at punishing North Korea for the deadly sinking of a
South Korean warship in March, warning against future provocations and pushing
the defiant regime to give up its nuclear arms programs.
U.S. President Barack Obama said in a new executive order for sanctions that the
North's "continued actions and policies," including the ship sinking and its
nuclear and missile tests, "destabilize the Korean Peninsula and imperil U.S.
armed forces and allies and trading partners in the region."
The new additions to the blacklist are divided into two groups -- those added
under an existing anti-WMD executive order and those listed under a new executive
order targeting Pyongyang's trade in conventional arms, luxury goods and other
illicit activities.
Those blacklisted under the new executive order include Office 39 of the North's
ruling Workers' Party that has been accused of engagement in illicit economic
activity, including drug trafficking, to support the North's government. They
also include the North's Reconnaissance General Bureau, a key intelligence
agency, and its chief, Gen. Kim Yong-chol.
A government official in Seoul said that Office 39 is called Kim Jong-il's
"personal safe" for its role in raising and managing secret funds and procuring
luxury goods for the reclusive leader. The Reconnaissance General Bureau has also
been suspected of orchestrating March's ship sinking.
"I think this is an expression of the U.S. intention to push strongly for
bilateral sanctions against North Korea," said Dong Yong-seung, a senior analyst
at the Samsung Economic Research Institute think tank. "But I don't think we will
be able to see its impact immediately."
The sanctions call for freezing the U.S.-based assets of those blacklisted and
banning American financial institutions from transactions with them. Analysts
have said the sanctions themselves are not expected to have much impact on
Pyongyang, as the North has few assets in the U.S. and little dealings with
American financial institutions.
But the measures could prove painful to the North if Washington's move leads to
financial institutions in other nations halting dealings with targeted entities.
Officials in Seoul have said that the success of the new sanctions will depend on
how much cooperation Washington can get from other nations in carrying out the
measures.
Dong said that it is unlikely for third countries to voluntarily join the U.S.
sanctions campaign "until there is a specific case" of Washington taking punitive
steps against a foreign institution that continues dealing with those
blacklisted.
In 2005, the U.S. imposed similar financial sanctions on Pyongyang by
blacklisting a bank in the Chinese territory of Macau with links to the North.
That is considered to have hit the North hard because the move scared away other
global financial institutions from dealing with Pyongyang for fear they would
also be the subject of sanctions.
Dong also said that the naming of the North's Reconnaissance General Bureau and
its chief, Gen. Kim, could be a U.S. message to Pyongyang that the regime should
punish them, holding them responsible for the ship sinking that left 46 South
Korean sailors dead.
Other analysts expressed doubts over the sanctions' impact, saying that China
could blunt them.
"The sanctions won't have a big impact if China remains passive about it," said
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies.
The U.S. announcement of new sanctions came just hours after Beijing and
Pyongyang announced Kim's secret trip to the neighboring ally that has provided
the impoverished and provocative North with food and energy aid as well as
diplomatic protection.
Kim held a summit with Chinese President Hu Jintao last Friday, pledging to
further bolster their traditional ties. China has a track record of blunting
international sanctions on North Korea by giving the neighboring regime
assistance through back doors.
Robert Einhorn, a senior U.S. official overseeing sanctions against the North and
Iran, and other officials have said that the new sanctions could have "the
broader effect of isolating North Korean entities from the international
financial system in cooperation from third countries."
Einhorn is expected to travel to Beijing next month in an attempt to enlist
Chinese support.
Professor Kim Yong-hyun of Seoul's Dongguk University said that the new sanctions
represent U.S. pressure on the North's leadership, adding that their impact is
not expected to be more than symbolic.
"The U.S. appears to be taking a two-track approach of seeking sanctions and
dialogue at the same time," Kim said. "But I think more weight is on the dialogue
side."
As China steps up efforts to reopen the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear
programs, Washington could move gradually toward that direction, he said.
Beijing's chief nuclear envoy, Wu Dawei, visited Pyongyang earlier this month and
won the North's consent to push for a "three-step" resumption of the nuclear
talks that involve the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the U.S.
China's official Xinhua news agency also said that the North's leader called for
reopening the nuclear talks at an early date when he held summit talks with
China's president last week.
Wu has been on a tour of the dialogue partners. He was in Seoul and Tokyo, and is
scheduled to visit Washington to push for resuming the negotiations that have
been stalled since the last session in late 2008.
Some officials in Seoul have said that the impact of the new sanctions won't be
big as North Korea has already been under a series of international sanctions for
its nuclear and missile tests.
"North Korea is already under almost all possible sanctions. Additional measures
will be to fill possible holes in the net of the sanctions," a senior official
said earlier this month on condition of anonymity. "The question is how
stringently they will be implemented."
Another official agreed that there are too many sanctions already in place
against the North and that little can be done to force China to join the
campaign. Still, the new measures could cause Pyongyang some pain, the official
said.
"In judo, if one holds his opponent in a choke, it does not look that different
if he tightens his hold," he said. "But the one being choked takes it hard."
jschang@yna.co.kr
(END)

Delete & Prev | Delete & Next