CAN SURGE BY NATIONAL DEMOCRATS LEAD TO UPSET IN CANADIAN POLLS?

by Eddy Lok

OTTAWA, April 29 (Bernama) -- Tongues are wagging in just days before
Canadians go to the polls on Monday as to whether the National Democrats led by
cane-holding Jack Layton could create an upset win over the incumbent
Conservative Party.

If that happens, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is almost certain to end up
as the next Opposition Leader, in the Canadian House of Commons, a scenario that
was unthinkable and thought to be next to impossible at the start of the current
poll campaign some weeks ago.

And, if the May 2 vote does not result in that kind of post election
scenario, then it is still possible that Harper’s Conservative Party could get
the majority mandate that it is seeking. And Layton would have to settle for the
Opposition whip post, instead.

In the last lap, a "Jack-quake" has occurred with the National Democratic
Party, which once trailed in third place behind the Liberal Party and
Conservative Party, has now overtaken the Liberals into second place and
challenging the Tories for power, according to latest opinion polls.

Buoyed by the encouraging polls, Layton, perceived as a "write-off"in the
federal election, which is viewed more of a bitter battle between the
Conservatives and Liberals, is behaving more like prime minister material in the
last few days.

At one campaign stop, he began his speech with "As your prime minister..."
and this brought rounds of applause and cheers from his supporters. He repeated
that phrase several times and sounding more confident each time.

With the National Democrats continuing to surge ahead, many are taking
Layton more seriously just as he behaves more seriously, too.

The National Democrats are said to be tightening up their communications
strategy just to ensure that no slip-ups occur that could jeopardise the
momentum or put its leader in a fix.

Desperate Liberals meanwhile have brought in party strongmen former prime
ministers Jean Chretien and Paul Martin to help in their sagging campaign, and
get their messages across to the electorate.

Pollsters project the National Democrats to win 53 seats in French-speaking
Quebec and 100 seats across the English-speaking provinces to reshape the
political landscape, as compared to 131 seats for the Conservatives and 62 for
Liberals.

Unpopular in the English-speaking provinces, the French-centric Bloc
Quebecois may settle for just more than a dozen seats in Quebec, which has again
raised the idea of a referendum to secede from Canada.

Just to deny the Conservatives power, the National Democrats and Liberals
could form a coalition government and include separatist elements from Bloc
Quebecois, a situation which Harper has warned Canadians about.

The Conservatives want a strong majority mandate, claiming that they want to
weed out any separatists in Parliament bent on breaking up Canada. As things
stand, the Conservatives are still likely be re-elected to power, at least as a
minority government again.

The current federal election, which Canadians are reluctantly heading for,
is the fourth in seven years. Canada has had general elections in 2004, 2006 and
2008 but public opinion polls show 85 per cent of Canadians do not pay much
attention to politics.

Opinion polls also indicate that Canadians want some political stability
after seven tumultuous years of minority governments, with four inconclusive
elections in between.

Most Canadians prefer their government to prioritise health, education,
environment, culture and heritage, and tax cuts as the country has one of the
world’s highest taxes.