Rudd to face tough time over not supplying uranium to India

Natasha Chaku

Melbourne, Sept 9 (PTI) Australian Prime Minister
Kevin Rudd is likely to face tough time in maintaining his
stand on not allowing uranium sales to India especially after
his government favoured India's waiver at the Nuclear Supplier
Group meet at Vienna.

While, the Australian government still maintains its
stance on not selling uranium to India, until Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh's Government joins the N.P.T. treaty, The Age
reported Tuesday,"This stance may sound like a grand
contradiction."

Writing in the paper Robert Ayson, Chief Investigator
of Australian Nuclear Choices Reasearch Council Project said,
this stand would be difficult for the Rudd governmnet to keep
up for long as U.S.-India deal would help put in place defacto
N.P.T. treaty that is being built around India as it is
welcomed as a nearly official member of the nuclear club.

He said India will also have a separate safeguard
arrangement with International Atomic Energy Agency (I.A.E.A.)
and has also agreed to separate its military and civilian
nuclear facilities.

Keeping in view that India's signing N.P.T. is impossible
as the treaty does not recognise India as a nuclear weapon
state and because New Delhi is unlikely to disarm anytime
soon, "This might be the best chance we get," Ayson felt.

The paper also said that the Rudd governmnet would
come under increasing pressure from the opposition as the
previous Howard government during its last months had
advocated uranium sales to India.

The opposition coaltion is now accusing the new
government of missing a fine chance to improve relationship
with India.

The report said Rudd government had hard choices to
make as there "May be some understandable reasons for the Rudd
Government's hesitancy on uranium sales, at least for the time
being."

The paper said the reason for the reluctance could
come from the Australian Labour Party's campaign in the
election on the platform that the country should retain its
existing policy to sell uranium only to N.P.T. countries.

"The second reason is party political reality:
Australia's involvement in uranium mining and exportation has
long been a sensitive issue for the A.L.P. Sales to India
might suggest that there are now few obstacles to the
expansion of an industry that some state governments would
oppose," it further added.

"Selling uranium to India would require Rudd to stare
down opponents within his own party, especially at the state
level. He would get there, but it could be an ugly fight," it
added.

The report also found the process as one of the reason
stating that US-India nuclear co-operation agreement still has
to get approval from American Senate which, like all other US
political institutions, is now preoccupied by November
elections.

"Senate approval is the last piece of a puzzle. The
difficult steps along the way included Singh Government's
desperate, but eventually successful, efforts to secure
support from a fractured Indian parliament. They also included
India's nuclear waiver, which a few countries (including New
Zealand) resisted to the bitter end.

"Given all these obstacles, Rudd Government could have
been excused for thinking that the process would seize up
entirely before it became a live question for Australia," it
said.

But Ayson felt that the direct proliferation dangers
involved in selling uranium to India are few and far between.
There is every chance that India would use Australian uranium
only to fuel its civilian power supply as its rapidly growing
economy demands additional energy sources.

Also, India is extremely unlikely to pass on nuclear
material to potential proliferators. The report said Rudd
Government's nod to uranium sale would represent Australia's
ultimate endorsement of India's decision to challenge the
non-proliferation regime.

Though favouring India at N.S.G. made Australia's
stand flexible, anything more might just weaken the Rudd
Government's case that it is an especially strong supporter of
N.P.T. treaty, it said adding it would risk the criticism that
while India may be an otherwise responsible possessor of
nuclear weapons, the stage has been set for other states to
join the queue.

Australia's co-operation on India's nuclear waiver is
already pushing the boundaries because the U.S. deal is not
universally regarded as good for nuclear non-proliferation.

"A change in policy on uranium sales, at least for
now, would almost definitely be a bridge too far. But the
issue will resurface and it may get harder and harder
for the Rudd Government to keep saying no," the report said.