ID :
19125
Fri, 09/12/2008 - 11:29
Auther :
Shortlink :
https://oananews.org//node/19125
The shortlink copeid
(News Focus) Future of nuclear talks' murky amid Kim's illness
By Lee Chi-dong
SEOUL, Sept. 11 (Yonhap) -- Following reports of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's latest health setback, the future of international efforts to rid the secretive nation of its nuclear arsenal has become uncertain, with the North's military emerging as a key variable.
The fate of the reclusive leader is directly tied to that of his often
unpredictable country, which conducted its first and only nuclear test in 2006.
Kim's reportedly exacerbated illness may further complicate already troubled
six-way talks on Pyongyang's atomic weapons program, officials and analysts here
say. They note the tumultuous process involving the U.S., South Korea, China,
Russia, and Japan was kept alive in part by the maverick North Korean leader's
support, despite the North Korean military's opposition.
Many expect the six-way talks to go adrift for the time being, citing the
current U.S. presidential race and Kim's worsened health as factors.
"We are already drawing up countermeasures against a variety of
scenarios," a senior South Korean nuclear negotiator told Yonhap News Agency
on condition of anonymity. "The issue of (Kim's health) is a grave concern
that is certain to have a significant impact on the six-way talks."
When asked about future prospects for the talks, the official said, "We need
to check first on the North's internal situation as it relates to Kim Jong-il's
illness."
The influence of North Korea's military will likely grow if Kim's health problems
continue, since there hasn't been anyone specific selected to replace him, he
added.
Some experts, however, say that considering Kim's penchant for surprises, it is
possible he may make an announcement on the restoration of the North's nuclear
program.
"There is a possibility that he is now in strategic seclusion to draw
international attention before taking some unexpected action, either positive or
negative," said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean Studies at
Seoul's Dongguk University.
Local and foreign media began reporting on the 66-year-old's health problem this
week, particulalry after Kim missed a key national event Tuesday marking his
country's 60th birthday. Lacking solid evidence, some reports described him as
incapacitated, while others speculated he may be near death.
Such varied reports are a reminder of the difficulty in covering North Korea's
highly opaque society.
South Korean intelligence officials have concluded that Kim, who has chronic
diabetes and heart disease, suffered from a cerebral hemorrhage or other
abnormalities in the brain last month, undergoing an operation performed by
foreign surgeons. He is now recovering without signs of serious side effects,
such as loss of speech, officials said. The indication is that Kim would continue
to rule his tightly-controlled regime.
Still, the exact status of Kim's health and when he is likely to resume his post
remains unclear.
The denclearization process, meanwhile, has hit another snag of late as both
North Korea and the U.S. have returned to relatively tough positions after
several months of mutual concessions.
North Korea announced on Aug. 26 that it had stopped disabling its main nuclear
reactor in Yongbyon, threatening to put it back into operation if the U.S.
continues to drag its feet on removing Pyongyang from a list of state sponsors of
terrorism.
The U.S. has insisted on an agreed verification scheme for the North's nuclear
declaration before removing the nation from the list.
Pyongyang took action last week by beginning preparatory steps for restoration of
the nuclear facility, including hauling removed equipment out of storage.
The North Korean military's discontent over the nuclear talks has reportedly
grown due to the delay in removing the communist nation from the U.S. list, while
Kim Jong-il's illness may have emboldened the hardline military to challenge the
six-party process.
North Korea did, however, send a rare positive signal on Wednesday.
The North's number two leader Kim Yong-nam was quoted by Japan's Kyodo news
agency as saying that the current stand-off with the U.S. over verification
"could eventually be overcome."
He described the recent move at the Yongbyon nuclear site as largely a symbolic
step aimed at pressing Washington to keep its promise to remove Pyongyang from
the terror list.
The Bush administration was quick to welcome the message.
"I think that we are looking at the comments today from the second in
command as positive ones, that we can hopefully continue to work to bring them
into compliance with what they agreed to do," White House spokeswoman Dana
Perino said in Washington.
Those positive tones lent credence to lingering optimism that the lame-duck U.S.
president will seek to maximize his foreign policy legacy through a deal with the
North, which also hopes to gain more concessions from the outgoing
administration.
lcd@yna.co.kr
(END)
SEOUL, Sept. 11 (Yonhap) -- Following reports of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's latest health setback, the future of international efforts to rid the secretive nation of its nuclear arsenal has become uncertain, with the North's military emerging as a key variable.
The fate of the reclusive leader is directly tied to that of his often
unpredictable country, which conducted its first and only nuclear test in 2006.
Kim's reportedly exacerbated illness may further complicate already troubled
six-way talks on Pyongyang's atomic weapons program, officials and analysts here
say. They note the tumultuous process involving the U.S., South Korea, China,
Russia, and Japan was kept alive in part by the maverick North Korean leader's
support, despite the North Korean military's opposition.
Many expect the six-way talks to go adrift for the time being, citing the
current U.S. presidential race and Kim's worsened health as factors.
"We are already drawing up countermeasures against a variety of
scenarios," a senior South Korean nuclear negotiator told Yonhap News Agency
on condition of anonymity. "The issue of (Kim's health) is a grave concern
that is certain to have a significant impact on the six-way talks."
When asked about future prospects for the talks, the official said, "We need
to check first on the North's internal situation as it relates to Kim Jong-il's
illness."
The influence of North Korea's military will likely grow if Kim's health problems
continue, since there hasn't been anyone specific selected to replace him, he
added.
Some experts, however, say that considering Kim's penchant for surprises, it is
possible he may make an announcement on the restoration of the North's nuclear
program.
"There is a possibility that he is now in strategic seclusion to draw
international attention before taking some unexpected action, either positive or
negative," said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean Studies at
Seoul's Dongguk University.
Local and foreign media began reporting on the 66-year-old's health problem this
week, particulalry after Kim missed a key national event Tuesday marking his
country's 60th birthday. Lacking solid evidence, some reports described him as
incapacitated, while others speculated he may be near death.
Such varied reports are a reminder of the difficulty in covering North Korea's
highly opaque society.
South Korean intelligence officials have concluded that Kim, who has chronic
diabetes and heart disease, suffered from a cerebral hemorrhage or other
abnormalities in the brain last month, undergoing an operation performed by
foreign surgeons. He is now recovering without signs of serious side effects,
such as loss of speech, officials said. The indication is that Kim would continue
to rule his tightly-controlled regime.
Still, the exact status of Kim's health and when he is likely to resume his post
remains unclear.
The denclearization process, meanwhile, has hit another snag of late as both
North Korea and the U.S. have returned to relatively tough positions after
several months of mutual concessions.
North Korea announced on Aug. 26 that it had stopped disabling its main nuclear
reactor in Yongbyon, threatening to put it back into operation if the U.S.
continues to drag its feet on removing Pyongyang from a list of state sponsors of
terrorism.
The U.S. has insisted on an agreed verification scheme for the North's nuclear
declaration before removing the nation from the list.
Pyongyang took action last week by beginning preparatory steps for restoration of
the nuclear facility, including hauling removed equipment out of storage.
The North Korean military's discontent over the nuclear talks has reportedly
grown due to the delay in removing the communist nation from the U.S. list, while
Kim Jong-il's illness may have emboldened the hardline military to challenge the
six-party process.
North Korea did, however, send a rare positive signal on Wednesday.
The North's number two leader Kim Yong-nam was quoted by Japan's Kyodo news
agency as saying that the current stand-off with the U.S. over verification
"could eventually be overcome."
He described the recent move at the Yongbyon nuclear site as largely a symbolic
step aimed at pressing Washington to keep its promise to remove Pyongyang from
the terror list.
The Bush administration was quick to welcome the message.
"I think that we are looking at the comments today from the second in
command as positive ones, that we can hopefully continue to work to bring them
into compliance with what they agreed to do," White House spokeswoman Dana
Perino said in Washington.
Those positive tones lent credence to lingering optimism that the lame-duck U.S.
president will seek to maximize his foreign policy legacy through a deal with the
North, which also hopes to gain more concessions from the outgoing
administration.
lcd@yna.co.kr
(END)
