ID :
194522
Tue, 07/12/2011 - 12:46
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https://oananews.org//node/194522
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China's economic growth to slow to 8.9 pct this year: HSBC
HONG KONG, July 12 (Yonhap) -- China's economic growth is expected to slow to 8.9 percent this year from a 10.3 percent expansion in 2010 due to the country's tightening moves, HSBC said Tuesday.
China's economy is likely to grow about 8.5 percent in the second half of the year, down from a 9.7 percent increase in the first quarter and an estimated 9 percent gain for the second quarter, the British lender said. HSBC didn't provide a first-half growth estimate for the world's second-largest economy.
"Even if the economic growth rate goes as low as 8.5 percent in the second half, I would call it a 'soft landing,'" Qu Hongbin, the chief China economist at HSBC, said in a press conference.
Qu said the slowdown in China's growth is likely to help contain the country's high-flying inflation.
China's consumer prices rose 6.4 percent in June from a year earlier, hitting a 35-month high. They grew more than 5 percent for the fourth straight month, and the growth exceeded 6 percent for the first time since July 2008.
To curb the country's inflation, the central People's Bank of China has raised the benchmark interest rate three times this year while increasing the amount of money banks must keep in reserve six times in 2011.
The monetary tightening, however, has raised fears in the market that it could undermine the country's economy, which has been seen as a growth engine for the global economy.
Qu said China's economic growth this year will be driven by infrastructure investment in the underdeveloped regions in the country.
"Policy tightening has started to cool the overheated economies in coastal regions. Yet the vast interior regions still keep powering ahead. There is no need to worry about a hard landing," he said.
Qu said strong momentum in the interior regions in the west will be one of the key legs to support China's growth in the coming years.
"A correction in the overheated property markets in coastal cities would cut into growth in urban fixed-asset investments. Combined with slower exports, this would indeed further lower GDP (gross domestic product) growth in the coming quarters," he said.
"However, we believe that China can still rely on domestic demand to grow by 8-9 percent in the second half of 2011 and 2012."
He forecast that the underdeveloped area in the interior region will keep growing at a double-digit pace in the coming years.
"Recent plans to speed up the development of three new strategic economic areas in western regions will likely make them a new growth engine for the national economy," he said. "All this means the risk of a hard landing is still remote."
China's economy is likely to grow about 8.5 percent in the second half of the year, down from a 9.7 percent increase in the first quarter and an estimated 9 percent gain for the second quarter, the British lender said. HSBC didn't provide a first-half growth estimate for the world's second-largest economy.
"Even if the economic growth rate goes as low as 8.5 percent in the second half, I would call it a 'soft landing,'" Qu Hongbin, the chief China economist at HSBC, said in a press conference.
Qu said the slowdown in China's growth is likely to help contain the country's high-flying inflation.
China's consumer prices rose 6.4 percent in June from a year earlier, hitting a 35-month high. They grew more than 5 percent for the fourth straight month, and the growth exceeded 6 percent for the first time since July 2008.
To curb the country's inflation, the central People's Bank of China has raised the benchmark interest rate three times this year while increasing the amount of money banks must keep in reserve six times in 2011.
The monetary tightening, however, has raised fears in the market that it could undermine the country's economy, which has been seen as a growth engine for the global economy.
Qu said China's economic growth this year will be driven by infrastructure investment in the underdeveloped regions in the country.
"Policy tightening has started to cool the overheated economies in coastal regions. Yet the vast interior regions still keep powering ahead. There is no need to worry about a hard landing," he said.
Qu said strong momentum in the interior regions in the west will be one of the key legs to support China's growth in the coming years.
"A correction in the overheated property markets in coastal cities would cut into growth in urban fixed-asset investments. Combined with slower exports, this would indeed further lower GDP (gross domestic product) growth in the coming quarters," he said.
"However, we believe that China can still rely on domestic demand to grow by 8-9 percent in the second half of 2011 and 2012."
He forecast that the underdeveloped area in the interior region will keep growing at a double-digit pace in the coming years.
"Recent plans to speed up the development of three new strategic economic areas in western regions will likely make them a new growth engine for the national economy," he said. "All this means the risk of a hard landing is still remote."
