N.Korea risks grow due to succession process: IISS

LONDON, July 21 (Yonhap) -- The dynastic power secession process under way in North Korea fuels the potential for conflict on the peninsula as the unpredictable regime has many ways for terrorism-style attacks on the South, a renowned security think tank said Thursday.
"Politically, successions are the Archilles' heel of dictatorships," the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said in a detailed report on the North's military arsenal and scenarios for the future of the communist regime.
It pointed out that the current leader, Kim Jong-il, was "very tardy" in anointing a son of his own as heir, unlike the nation's founding leader, Kim Il-sung, who spent decades preparing to hand over power.
The North's leader made public his plan last year to groom his third and youngest son, Jong-un, as the next leader of a nation facing chronic economic difficulties and external pressure.
"The uncertainties this entails exacerbate the potential for conflict," the London-based institute said, citing Jong-un's lack of experience, fragile power base and political constraints. He is known to be under 30.
It said another North Korean invasion of the South is unlikely, given its economic decline and the South's enhanced military power.
"But the North has many ways to inflict harm and sow terror without invading," it said. "Electronic warfare is among the other forms of asymmetric capabilities that make Seoul feel vulnerable."
The IISS estimated the North possess as many as a dozen nuclear weapons.
"North Korea sees its nuclear arsenal as permanent and no longer talks of trading it for political or economic gains," it pointed out.
It said the North has "the wherewithal" to develop satellite-launch capability and intercontinental ballistic missiles if it decides to, but the world will have at least five years of warning before they become combat ready.
The IISS said South Korea, the U.S. and China should draw up a joint plan to deal with the North's nuclear arsenal in the event of its collapse.
"The nightmare scenario would be if ROK (South Korea) intervention in the North, perhaps including its U.S. ally in an urgent quest for 'loose nukes,' were perceived as hostile by Beijing, leading to a direct military confrontation between two superpowers," it said.