NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 168

(July 28, 2011) *** FOREING TIPS North Korea Risks Grow Due to Succession Process: IISS LONDON (Yonhap) -- The dynastic power secession process under way in North Korea fuels the potential for conflict on the peninsula as the unpredictable regime has many ways for terrorism-style attacks on the South, a renowned security think tank said on July 21. "Politically, successions are the Archilles' heel of dictatorships," the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said in a detailed report on the North's military arsenal and scenarios for the future of the socialist regime. It pointed out that the current leader, Kim Jong-il, was "very tardy" in anointing a son of his own as heir, unlike the nation's founding leader, Kim Il-sung, who spent decades preparing to hand over power. The North's leader made public his plan last year to groom his third and youngest son, Jong-un, as the next leader of a nation facing chronic economic difficulties and external pressure. "The uncertainties this entails exacerbate the potential for conflict," the London-based institute said, citing Jong-un's lack of experience, fragile power base and political constraints. He is known to be under 30. It said another North Korean invasion of the South is unlikely, given its economic decline and the South's enhanced military power. "But the North has many ways to inflict harm and sow terror without invading," it said. "Electronic warfare is among the other forms of asymmetric capabilities that make Seoul feel vulnerable." The IISS estimated the North possess as many as a dozen nuclear weapons. "North Korea sees its nuclear arsenal as permanent and no longer talks of trading it for political or economic gains," it pointed out. It said the North has "the wherewithal" to develop satellite-launch capability and intercontinental ballistic missiles if it decides to, but the world will have at least five years of warning before they become combat ready. The IISS said South Korea, the U.S. and China should draw up a joint plan to deal with the North's nuclear arsenal in the event of its collapse. "The nightmare scenario would be if ROK (South Korea) intervention in the North, perhaps including its U.S. ally in an urgent quest for 'loose nukes,' were perceived as hostile by Beijing, leading to a direct military confrontation between two superpowers," it said. ------------------------ N.K. Asks U.N. Agency for Assistance in Economy Education SEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea has asked an agency of the United Nations to help educate its officials on how to develop its economy, preferring to learn from experts from South Korea to reduce language barriers, a senior U.N. official said on July 21. "North Korea has recently delivered a message through its envoy to Bangkok to teach (officials) how to develop economy," said Nam Sang-min, an official at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP). UNESCAP, headquartered in Bangkok, is one of five regional commissions under the U.N. and was established in 1947 to encourage economic cooperation among its member states. The U.N. regional body currently manages various projects on energy, environment, transportation and regional development. Citing language barriers as a problem for training programs, North Korean officials suggested that the U.N. agency pick South Korean experts to train their officials, Nam said. "We plan to call in South Korean professionals for a one-month education program on air pollution, to be held in the latter half of this year in Thailand," Nam said. The impoverished communist North has relied on international handouts since the late 1990s when it suffered a massive famine that was estimated to have killed 2 million people. ------------------------ N.K. Prisoners Forced to Labor on Farms, Construction Sites SEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korean prisoners are forced to work on farms and construction sites to fill the gap in labor supply, a private organization on North Korean human rights said on July 21. The Database Center for North Korean Human Rights (NKDB) said the inmates are sent to a range of facilities, including those attached to their detention centers, nearby farms, power plants and apartment construction sites. The work involves such hard labor as mixing cement and sand without the use of instruments. "North Korea stresses that prison life is a conversion process (to make convicts) communist human beings through labor and refinement," the NKDB said in a report based on interviews of some 13,000 North Korean defectors. The inmates, who work without pay, produce goods for consumption within the detention centers as well as for exports to countries such as Russia and China. Their products include brassieres, tablecloths, curtain lace and sweaters, the report said. North Korea is notorious for its alleged abuses of human rights, despite constant denials by its communist regime. The NKDB said earlier that the country holds more than 138,000 people in its detention facilities across the country. ------------------------ N.K. IOC Member Supported PyeongChang's Rival for Olympics SEOUL (Yonhap) -- The lone North Korean member on the International Olympic Committee (IOC) supported a rival city of South Korea's PyeongChang in the vote on the host for the 2018 Winter Olympics, a source here said on July 22. According to the source, Jang Ung, the vote-wielding IOC member from the North, chose Munich, Germany, over the South Korean alpine town at a July 6 vote in Durban, South Africa. PyeongChang still won the bid in a landslide, garnering 63 of 95 possible votes. Munich picked up only 25 and Annecy of France got seven. "I heard from a European sports source that Jang Ung, before the vote, attended a meeting of IOC members organized by Germany," the source in Seoul said. "Jang apparently pledged his support for Munich there." The source said an IOC official told him on the condition of anonymity that Jang "had been telling anyone who would listen" that PyeongChang was unlikely to win the bid. The source said he also heard that Jang, an IOC member since 1996, had voted for Sochi in the IOC vote in July 2007. "Some sources from Europe and the IOC said after Sochi won the bid, North Korea received some benefits for its support," the source added. In that 2007 vote, PyeongChang had led Sochi 36-34 after the first round, with Salzburg of Austria getting 25. But with no city winning the majority, the voting went to the second round with Salzburg eliminated, and Sochi edged PyeongChang 51-47. ------------------------ North Korea Takes Seventh at International Math Olympiad SEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea finished seventh among 100 countries at the 52nd International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) held in the Netherlands, U.S. international broadcaster Radio Free Asia (RFA) said on July 23. North Korean students secured three gold medals and three silver medals, with Mun Hak-myong finishing 25th among 564 participants, the RFA said. North Korea secured a total of 157 points at the IMO held from July 17 to 23, RFA said, adding China ranked first with 189 points followed by the United States with 184 points and Singapore with 179 points. North Korea took part in the olympiad from 1990 to 1992 and has participated the last five years since 2007. North Korea ranked eighth in 2007, seventh in 2008 and fifth in 2009. North Korea took second at the 51st IMO held last year in Kazakhstan but was disqualified on suspicion of cheating due to perfect answers. North Korea also was disqualified for cheating at the IMO held in Sweden in 1991. ------------------------ N. Korea Conducted Missile Engine Test Last Year: Sources SEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea conducted a rocket engine test for a long-range missile at a newly built missile launch site in the country's northwest last year ahead of the November shelling of a South Korean border island, a government source said on July 24. The October test at the Dongchang-ri launch site was carried out during a time of the day when U.S. satellites were able to spot the test, an apparent indication that the socialist nation intended to show off its missile capabilities, the high-level source said. The North had conducted a similar rocket engine test at the site in 2008. The communist nation began the construction of the Dongchang-ri site in 2001 and has built a 30-meter-high launch tower there, but the overall construction of the site is not considered to have been fully completed, the source said. A military source said that there are signs of construction of a railway between the missile site and a nearby train station in an effort to transport construction materials to the site to complete the construction. The source said, however, that there are no indications of an immediate launch at the site. North Korea's missile program has long been considered a threat to regional security along with its nuclear weapons program. The North last test-fired its most advanced Taepodong-2 long-range missile in 2009. ------------------------ U.N. Plans to Dispatch Team to Help N. Korea's Flood Victims SEOUL, (Yonhap) -- The United Nations plans to dispatch an inter-agency team to investigate the extent of flood damage in North Korea after the socialist country officially asked it to help, the Voice of America (VOA) said on July 26. The North on July 25 called for the U.N. agencies to release their emergency relief goods which they had already stored in the country, the VOA said, quoting a spokesperson from the U.N. Children's Fund (UNICEF) office in Asia. U.N. agencies and non-governmental organizations, including Britain's Save the Children, have formed an inter-agency team aimed at aiding flood victims in the North, the VOA said. They will send the team to Haeju City and Cheongdan County of South Hwanghae Province and Seoheung County of North Hwanghae Province, which were reported as the areas affected the worst by floods, the radio station added. The North's official news outlet said on July 16 that heavy downpours battered much of North Korea, causing casualties and flooding homes, farmland and roads. North Korea requested the U.N. agencies stationed in the country to help its flood victims in August 2010 after Shinuiju City in North Pyongan Province suffered severe flooding. According to the North's recent call for emergency aid for flood victims, U.N. agencies, including the World Food Program, provided relief goods such as soap and biscuits to flood victims in the city. ------------------------ N. Korea's Heir Apparent Closely Accompanies His Father on Tours SEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea's leader-in-waiting Kim Jong-un has closely accompanied his father, the country's leader Kim Jong-il, on inspection tours in recent weeks. The heir apparent son accompanied his father on 12 out of 14 inspection trips between July 1 and 25, according to an analysis of North Korean state media on July 26. The figures represent a sharp increase compared to the first six months of the year during which Jong-un accompanied his father on 35 out of 63 inspection trips The North Korean leader has taken steps to extend his family dynasty for a third generation since he suffered a stroke in 2008. He named Jong-un vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the North's ruling Workers' Party and a four-star general last year in the clearest sign yet to make him the next leader. The succession, if made, would mark communism's second hereditary power transfer. The elder Kim inherited power from his father, the country's founder Kim Il-sung, who died in 1994. ------------------------ U.N. Relief Agency Plans to Reopen Office in North Korea SEOUL (Yonhap) -- A United Nations relief agency is planning to reopen its office in North Korea, an official at South Korea's foreign ministry said on July 27. Valerie Amos, head of the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), is scheduled to visit North Korea around October to discuss details on reopening the Pyongyang office, the official said on the condition of anonymity. The agency shuttered its operations in Pyongyang in 2005 at the request of the North. "It is correct that the OCHA has decided to reopen its office in Pyongyang, although I don't know the exact date of the reopening," the official said. North Korea is reportedly facing the growing threat of a humanitarian crisis because of chronic food shortages caused by years of economic mismanagement and poor weather. Early this month, the European Union decided to send emergency food aid to feed 650,000 North Koreans. ------------------------ N. Korea Commands 195,000 Troops for Terror Attacks on S. Korea SEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea's military commands 195,000 troops trained to launch various types of terror attacks on South Korea, a defector said on July 27. The number includes 110,000 troops in the special forces, 40,000 in air and naval brigades, 10,000 charged with cyber terrorism, and 5,000 in the Reconnaissance General Bureau, North Korea's top intelligence agency, said Kim Seong-min of the NK People's Liberation Front, a group of defectors from North Korea's armed forces. The troops are trained to "damage South Korea's reputation by creating an internal commotion, and paralyze the country's command structures to facilitate a (Pyongyang-led) forced unification of the Korean Peninsula," Kim said. He was speaking at a press conference marking the day the Koreas signed an armistice agreement at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War. The figure also includes some 30,000 troops, who are believed to be operating behind closed doors within the Reconnaissance General Bureau, the ruling Workers' Party and other departments. These people are tasked with plotting hackings, assassinations and psychological warfare against the South, Kim said. Seoul has blamed Pyongyang for a range of terrorist attacks in recent years, including last year's deadly sinking of a South Korean warship that killed 46 sailors, and the crippling of a major local bank's computer network in April. North Korea denies the accusations.