ID :
197990
Fri, 07/29/2011 - 06:56
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https://oananews.org//node/197990
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GDP growth of Laos is forecast at 7.7% for 2011
ASIA’S GROWTH TO MODERATE ON RISING INFLATION, WEAK GLOBAL DEMAND: ADB
VIENTIANE,JULY 28.(KPL)- The GDP growth of Lao PDR is forecast at 7.7% for 2011 and 7.8% for 2012, thanks to the increased mining and hydroelectric investment.
Last year the economic growth increased to 7.5%, according to ADB record.
External positions in the region have stayed strong with most countries sporting healthy current account surpluses or small current account deficits. The exceptions are Cambodia and Lao PDR with high current account deficits of 11% and 9%, respectively.
After a strong rebound in 2010, economic growth in emerging East Asia will moderate this year and in 2012 as authorities continue to battle inflation and as advanced economies try to shore up an anemic recovery, says the July edition of the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) Asia Economic Monitor (AEM) released on 28 July.
The report forecasts aggregate GDP growth for emerging East Asia economies of 7.9% in 2011 and 7.7% in 2012. In 2010 aggregate growth reached 9.3%.
“Growth is easing in most of emerging East Asia as authorities wind down fiscal stimulus measures and tighten monetary policies to counter rising inflation,” said Iwan Azis, Head of ADB’s Office of Regional Economic Integration that prepared the report. “This is actually a good thing so stronger economies like the People’s Republic of China (PRC) don’t overheat.”
The AEM, a semiannual report, assesses the outlook of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN); the PRC; Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; and Taipei,China.
Growth in PRC moderated slightly to 9.5% in the second quarter of 2011 from 9.7% in the first quarter. Looking ahead, a slow external environment and tighter monetary stance are expected to moderate growth to more sustainable levels of 9.6% for the full year and 9.2% in 2012.
The highly trade-dependent Newly Industrialized Economies of Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore and Taipei, China should also see a return to more sustainable long- term levels of growth as a weakened external environment slows exports.
Three of ASEAN’s middle income economies—Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand—should see growth taper due to diminished export demand and tighter monetary policy. Indonesia stands to buck the trend with strong domestic demand expected to drive growth to 6.4% in 2011, above its 6.1% growth in 2010.
The ADB report highlights the risk of rising inflation leading to wage-price spirals that could derail the region’s growth. Other risks to the outlook include a more tepid than expected recovery in Japan and unresolved debt problems in the US and eurozone; increasing financial market volatility; and destabilizing capital flows.
The report also contains a special section on how authorities can respond to inflation driven by surging commodity prices. It suggests that a pragmatic approach to a range of policies may help governments manage the inflationary impact of sustained and volatile changes in commodity prices. It also points out that greater exchange rate flexibility can help mitigate the effects of global commodity price surges on domestic prices.
ADB, based in Manila, is dedicated to reducing poverty in Asia and the Pacific through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth and regional integration. Established in 1966, it is owned by 67 members – 48 from the region. In 2010, ADB approvals, including co-financing, totaled $17.51 billion. In addition, ADB’s ongoing Trade Finance Program supported $2.8 billion in trade.
VIENTIANE,JULY 28.(KPL)- The GDP growth of Lao PDR is forecast at 7.7% for 2011 and 7.8% for 2012, thanks to the increased mining and hydroelectric investment.
Last year the economic growth increased to 7.5%, according to ADB record.
External positions in the region have stayed strong with most countries sporting healthy current account surpluses or small current account deficits. The exceptions are Cambodia and Lao PDR with high current account deficits of 11% and 9%, respectively.
After a strong rebound in 2010, economic growth in emerging East Asia will moderate this year and in 2012 as authorities continue to battle inflation and as advanced economies try to shore up an anemic recovery, says the July edition of the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) Asia Economic Monitor (AEM) released on 28 July.
The report forecasts aggregate GDP growth for emerging East Asia economies of 7.9% in 2011 and 7.7% in 2012. In 2010 aggregate growth reached 9.3%.
“Growth is easing in most of emerging East Asia as authorities wind down fiscal stimulus measures and tighten monetary policies to counter rising inflation,” said Iwan Azis, Head of ADB’s Office of Regional Economic Integration that prepared the report. “This is actually a good thing so stronger economies like the People’s Republic of China (PRC) don’t overheat.”
The AEM, a semiannual report, assesses the outlook of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN); the PRC; Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; and Taipei,China.
Growth in PRC moderated slightly to 9.5% in the second quarter of 2011 from 9.7% in the first quarter. Looking ahead, a slow external environment and tighter monetary stance are expected to moderate growth to more sustainable levels of 9.6% for the full year and 9.2% in 2012.
The highly trade-dependent Newly Industrialized Economies of Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore and Taipei, China should also see a return to more sustainable long- term levels of growth as a weakened external environment slows exports.
Three of ASEAN’s middle income economies—Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand—should see growth taper due to diminished export demand and tighter monetary policy. Indonesia stands to buck the trend with strong domestic demand expected to drive growth to 6.4% in 2011, above its 6.1% growth in 2010.
The ADB report highlights the risk of rising inflation leading to wage-price spirals that could derail the region’s growth. Other risks to the outlook include a more tepid than expected recovery in Japan and unresolved debt problems in the US and eurozone; increasing financial market volatility; and destabilizing capital flows.
The report also contains a special section on how authorities can respond to inflation driven by surging commodity prices. It suggests that a pragmatic approach to a range of policies may help governments manage the inflationary impact of sustained and volatile changes in commodity prices. It also points out that greater exchange rate flexibility can help mitigate the effects of global commodity price surges on domestic prices.
ADB, based in Manila, is dedicated to reducing poverty in Asia and the Pacific through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth and regional integration. Established in 1966, it is owned by 67 members – 48 from the region. In 2010, ADB approvals, including co-financing, totaled $17.51 billion. In addition, ADB’s ongoing Trade Finance Program supported $2.8 billion in trade.
