No pipe dreams

Since the division of the Korean Peninsula, South Korea has lived as an island country for more than six decades. One way to reconnect the nation to the vast Eurasian continent is the idea of extending the Trans-Siberian Railway through North Korea and into the South, and building a parallel natural gas pipeline.
The pipeline construction plan, which appeared to be a mere possibility several months ago, is rapidly approaching a reality. If realized, it would bring about enormous benefits to all three countries involved, not just economically but diplomatically.
Natural gas is far cheaper and cleaner than oil. The Siberian reservoir is large enough to produce gas for another 100 years, and the proposed pipeline would lower gas transportation costs by one-third, pulling down domestic prices by 20 to 30 percent. Russia will be able to generate $90 billion over the next three decades. North Korea would also make more than $100 million a year in fees.
Moscow can increase its political influence and diplomatic leverage in this part of the world, while the Koreas can reduce their undue economic and diplomatic dependency on China. Most important of all, South and North Korea can seek to improve strained ties through the joint economic project.
The "win-win-win" situation explains why South Korea and Russia signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in 2008 and have strived to persuade the North to join the project and won the latter's nod recently.
In South Korea, there seem to be few political obstacles. President Lee Myung-bak thought about the idea as early as 1989 when he was a construction company CEO. Rep. Park Geun-hye, the strongest contender for the next presidency, is also positive about the plan, and progressive opposition parties have few reasons to oppose it.
Lee's conservative supporters will likely pose the biggest stumbling block. Some newspapers already call the plan "fantasy" or even the "security disaster." Though politically motivated, these concerns are not entirely unfounded. Few can completely deny the possibility that the North might steal gas or play with the pipeline if inter-Korean relations go awry.
Equally worrisome is for what purpose Pyongyang will use the considerable sum of hard cash. Even Russia can cause problems over transportation fees or gas prices, as it did to European buyers amid friction with Ukraine.
All this shows the very reason for Seoul to turn more positive in inter-Korean ties and maintain cooperative relationship with the communist regime in the North. Most political and economic experts here agree a large part of Korea???s economic future lies in the vast continent up north. If and when the South's capital and technology can combine with the North's labor to jump in Russia's ambitious Siberian project, South Korea may no longer have to remain an island.
A prerequisite is to maximize Seoul's leverage in expected trilateral negotiation, for instance, through the activation of an international organization designed to help minimize all potential risks.
If President Lee makes a policy turnaround based on his grand design and cold-headed preparations, he will make up for all the inter-Korean setbacks of the past years and emerge as a leader with a historic legacy.