Speculation over postponement of election growing

TOKYO, Oct. 27 Kyodo - Speculation is growing among the ruling party members that Prime Minister Taro
Aso will push back a House of Representatives election to next year, as the key
Nikkei index closed Monday at its lowest level in 26 years, lawmakers said.
Aso also appears to have expressed his resolve to prioritize economic stimulus
measures rather than calling the election during informal talks with Akihiro
Ota, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party's coalition partner, the New
Komeito party, on Sunday night.
Aso on Monday denied a media report that he notified Sunday a senior LDP member
that he will not dissolve the lower house for an election ''for the time
being,'' while appearing reluctant to create a political vacuum amid the global
financial crisis.
With the prospects for an immediate election dimming, the main opposition
Democratic Party of Japan has decided to refuse to vote Tuesday on a bill to
extend Japan's antiterror refueling mission at an opposition-controlled House
of Councillors panel -- a sign that the DPJ is adopting a tougher line against
the ruling parties in managing Diet affairs.
''There will be no dissolution (of the lower house) for a while,'' a senior
ruling party member told Kyodo News on Monday. ''It can't be helped because of
this financial situation.''
The member also said that Aso was probably influenced by talks at the two-day
Asia-Europe Meeting summit in Beijing through Saturday, which focused mainly on
the global financial crisis.
One of the LDP executives also said, ''It's not a time to dissolve (the lower
house). We need to enact a second supplementary budget possibly during the
ongoing Diet session.''
''There is no general election by the end of the year. It would be in spring,''
the LDP member said.
Even a senior member of New Komeito, which has been calling for a November
election, said that the situation is ''completely heading toward postponing''
it.
On the informal talks between Aso and Ota, the member predicted that Aso said,
''Leave the time of the dissolution up to me.''
According to ruling party sources, the talks were held for nearly two hours
Sunday night. Officials serving for the prime minister, however, had told
reporters that Aso was having dinner at a Chinese restaurant in a hotel with
his secretaries.
But there are ruling party members like former LDP Secretary General Hidenao
Nakagawa who still insist on the need for an early election.
''The royal road is to compile a budget after winning a public mandate,''
Nakagawa said in a speech in Ibaraki Prefecture, adding that delaying an
election will bring a political stalemate.
No general election needs to be held until September 2009, but Aso took office
in late September amid expectations that he would dissolve the lower house for
a general election in the following few months.
Aso is expected to make a final decision on an election date possibly at the
end of the month or early November after seeing how deliberations on the bill
to extend Japan's refueling mission in support of U.S.-led antiterrorism
operations in and around Afghanistan pan out.
''The whole world is participating in this fight against terrorism. And Japan
will also join this...Unless we clear this issue, we won't get anywhere,'' Aso
told reporters.
The DPJ's possible refusal to vote on the bill at the upper house panel means
that its passage through the parliament on Thursday, as envisioned by ruling
lawmakers, has become difficult.
The refusal was conveyed by Susumu Yanase, the DPJ's Diet affairs chief in the
upper house, to his LDP counterpart Seiji Suzuki on Monday morning.
Although the DPJ remains opposed to the refueling mission, the party had
recently adopted a more cooperative stance toward Aso to ensure a smooth
parliamentary process in the hope that helping him to clear his priorities
would lead him to call an election at an early date.
Yanase said that he told Suzuki, ''We have been cooperating (with the ruling
parties) on the assumption that the lower house will be dissolved, but the
situation is moving toward a delay. The ministers' replies in the (upper house)
committee were also insufficient.''
The ruling coalition of the LDP and New Komeito had initially been expecting
the bill to be put to a vote at the upper house panel on Tuesday and then at
the upper house plenary session on Wednesday.
While the bill was likely to be voted down by the upper house, where the
opposition parties dominate, the ruling parties had hoped to hold an overriding
second vote in the lower house, which they control, on Thursday.
Such a vote can be called in the event that the upper house rejects a bill or
does not hold a vote within 60 days of receiving it from the lower house.
The bill, which is aimed at extending Japan's mission for one year beyond its
expiration in January, passed the lower house last Tuesday.
==Kyodo