Recession, reduced fishing quota cloud outlook for tuna prices

TOKYO, Dec. 17 Kyodo - The prospects for wholesale tuna prices have become somewhat unpredictable amid changing business conditions.

Prices recently jumped partly due to tighter international restrictions aimed
at preserving tuna stocks, but the galloping pace of the wholesale price rise
has now abated while the volume of sales continues to decline sharply,
apparently because of the recession and weak consumer spending.
Tuna is typically in great demand around the turn of the year as people order
or prepare seasonal dishes. But an abrupt rise in fish prices does not seem
likely during this Japanese holiday season.
At the renowned Tsukiji wholesale market that supplies the greater Tokyo area
with fish and sea produce, the sales volume of frozen tuna slumped 19.2 percent
from a year earlier to 3,000 tons in October. On the other hand, price rises
averaged a solid 8.9 percent.
In August and September, however, the price increase was far more dramatic,
with a surge of more than 20 percent in tandem with skyrocketing oil prices.
''Now the upswing has taken a breather,'' one dealer said.
Common frozen bigeye tuna now sells for less than 1,000 yen per kilogram, down
nearly 100 yen from August when the price peaked.
''Tuna prices are already quite steep so if the fish becomes even costlier,
consumers would be put off especially now that the economy is in recession,''
another dealer said.
At the Tsukiji market, both buyers and sellers seem to be in no mood for sharp
price hikes.
One wholesaler dealing in premium tuna said, ''Because of the financial crisis,
pricey sushi bars in Ginza have lost a large number of (deep-pocketed customers
like) workers from foreign-owned companies so our sales to such restaurants
have halved compared with last year.''
Faced with the falling volume of sales, dealers are divided about future price
trends. Some argue that production of more tuna at fish farms will cap the
price increase while others hold that production at fish farms cannot make up
for the mandatory cut in fish catches, suggesting the prices will turn up.
In fact, wholesale tuna prices began trending upward in 2007 due to tighter
international fishing regulations.
In November, the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic
Tunas agreed to cut the Atlantic bluefin tuna catch quota for 2009 by about 20
percent from the current level to 22,000 tons, setting Japan's fishing quota at
1,870 tons for 2009, down from the current quota of 2,345 tons, and 1,697 tons
for 2010.
''We might go out of business if lower fishing quotas combine with lower
prices,'' said an official with the Japan Tuna Cooperative Association.
==Kyodo
2008-12-17 23:19:46