ID :
43106
Thu, 01/29/2009 - 17:04
Auther :
Shortlink :
https://oananews.org//node/43106
The shortlink copeid
(Yonhap Interview) N. Korea's space ambitions pose immediate security threat: expert
By Lee Chi-dong
SEOUL, Jan. 29 (Yonhap) -- North Korea is preparing to send a satellite into
space in the coming months from its brand new rocket launch facility on the west
coast, posing yet another serious challenge to global security, an American
expert in Seoul said Thursday.
If conducted, it would be provocative because such a long-range rocket is a
dual-use technology that can be used for inter-continental ballistic missiles
capable of carrying nuclear warheads, according to Daniel Pinkston, senior
analyst at the Brussels-based security think tank International Crisis Group.
He said North Korea has almost completed the construction of the cutting-edge
facility in its northwestern hinterland. He cited satellite photos and testimonies
by several experts on missile and space program.
"It is much more extensive than the former launch facility in Musudan-ri on the
east coast," he told Yonhap News Agency in an interview. "I understand North
Korea could launch a rocket from the facility as early as this spring if the
Paektusan-2, more commonly known as the Taepodong-2, is ready for testing."
North Korea's long-range missile program has been in the spotlight since it flew
a Taepodong-1 over Japan in 1998. Pyongyang claimed the missile fired from the
Musudan-ri base carried its first satellite named Gwangmyeongsong.
It launched another missile, Taepodong-2, during a large ballistic missile
exercise in 1998 but it failed after about 40 seconds of powered flight.
Pinkston said the North was building the new missile launch pad on the west coast
apparently with the aim of avoiding international controversy.
"If the Paektusan-2 is launched from the new facility, it could place a small
satellite into a polar orbit without flying over the air space of any neighboring
countries," he said. "The vehicle could pass over Japan, but North Korea could
argue that it entered outer space by the time it flew over Japanese territory and
this could be persuasive to many."
The North's launch of a satellite will be viewed as a serious threat in the U.S.
already beset by a host of global challenges, and there will be tremendous
pressure for Washington to act, he added.
"In Korea, (North Korean leader) Kim Jong-il has an opportunity to score huge
propaganda points if North Korea can launch a satellite before South Korea does,"
he said.
He added the secretive nation is expected to resume a high-explosive test to
follow up on its first-and-only nuclear experiment in 2006 in a bid to pressure
the new U.S. government into bargaining.
"High-explosive tests (without using plutonium) continued until the latter half
of 2008," he said. "Pyongyang knows the tests are observable and that they very
well could schedule the testing for periods of optimal political effect."
Pinkston said Pyongyang's ultimate goal is to win international recognition as a
nuclear power not only militarily but also diplomatically and under international
law.
The U.S. government has turned to recognize the North as a nuclear weapons state
at least militarily, he pointed out, as shown in a series of statements by
institutions or senior officials regarding its nuclear weapons capability.
The U.S. Joint Forces Command in Hawaii was found last month to have categorized
North Korea as a nuclear power along with China, India, Pakistan, and Russia. It
later revised the report to exclude North Korea upon query by Seoul.
The U.S. State Department flatly said Washington does not accept Pyongyang as a
nuclear power.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in a recent contribution to the journal
Foreign Affairs that "North Korea has built several bombs."
Selig Harrison, director of the Washington-based Center for International
Policy's Asia program, said after his latest trip to Pyongyang earlier this month
that North Korea informed him it "weaponized" about 30 kilograms of plutonium,
enough for up to six warheads.
Pinkston, however, said it would be difficult for the North to get political and
diplomatic recognition beyond what is commonly assumed by the military in making
contingency plans.
"Official recognition will increase public pressure in South Korea and Japan to
take counter-measures, and that could trigger a regional arms race," he said.
"While it is prudent to prepare for military contingencies, there are political,
legal and diplomatic reasons not to recognize North Korea as a nuclear weapons
state."
He backed U.S. President Barack Obama's plan for high-level talks with North
Korea, saying Pyongyang will have to be confident and secure enough to give up
its nuclear program.
"I don't think that will be possible unless Kim Jong-il is directly reassured by
high-level U.S. officials," he said.
lcd@yna.co.kr
(END)
SEOUL, Jan. 29 (Yonhap) -- North Korea is preparing to send a satellite into
space in the coming months from its brand new rocket launch facility on the west
coast, posing yet another serious challenge to global security, an American
expert in Seoul said Thursday.
If conducted, it would be provocative because such a long-range rocket is a
dual-use technology that can be used for inter-continental ballistic missiles
capable of carrying nuclear warheads, according to Daniel Pinkston, senior
analyst at the Brussels-based security think tank International Crisis Group.
He said North Korea has almost completed the construction of the cutting-edge
facility in its northwestern hinterland. He cited satellite photos and testimonies
by several experts on missile and space program.
"It is much more extensive than the former launch facility in Musudan-ri on the
east coast," he told Yonhap News Agency in an interview. "I understand North
Korea could launch a rocket from the facility as early as this spring if the
Paektusan-2, more commonly known as the Taepodong-2, is ready for testing."
North Korea's long-range missile program has been in the spotlight since it flew
a Taepodong-1 over Japan in 1998. Pyongyang claimed the missile fired from the
Musudan-ri base carried its first satellite named Gwangmyeongsong.
It launched another missile, Taepodong-2, during a large ballistic missile
exercise in 1998 but it failed after about 40 seconds of powered flight.
Pinkston said the North was building the new missile launch pad on the west coast
apparently with the aim of avoiding international controversy.
"If the Paektusan-2 is launched from the new facility, it could place a small
satellite into a polar orbit without flying over the air space of any neighboring
countries," he said. "The vehicle could pass over Japan, but North Korea could
argue that it entered outer space by the time it flew over Japanese territory and
this could be persuasive to many."
The North's launch of a satellite will be viewed as a serious threat in the U.S.
already beset by a host of global challenges, and there will be tremendous
pressure for Washington to act, he added.
"In Korea, (North Korean leader) Kim Jong-il has an opportunity to score huge
propaganda points if North Korea can launch a satellite before South Korea does,"
he said.
He added the secretive nation is expected to resume a high-explosive test to
follow up on its first-and-only nuclear experiment in 2006 in a bid to pressure
the new U.S. government into bargaining.
"High-explosive tests (without using plutonium) continued until the latter half
of 2008," he said. "Pyongyang knows the tests are observable and that they very
well could schedule the testing for periods of optimal political effect."
Pinkston said Pyongyang's ultimate goal is to win international recognition as a
nuclear power not only militarily but also diplomatically and under international
law.
The U.S. government has turned to recognize the North as a nuclear weapons state
at least militarily, he pointed out, as shown in a series of statements by
institutions or senior officials regarding its nuclear weapons capability.
The U.S. Joint Forces Command in Hawaii was found last month to have categorized
North Korea as a nuclear power along with China, India, Pakistan, and Russia. It
later revised the report to exclude North Korea upon query by Seoul.
The U.S. State Department flatly said Washington does not accept Pyongyang as a
nuclear power.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in a recent contribution to the journal
Foreign Affairs that "North Korea has built several bombs."
Selig Harrison, director of the Washington-based Center for International
Policy's Asia program, said after his latest trip to Pyongyang earlier this month
that North Korea informed him it "weaponized" about 30 kilograms of plutonium,
enough for up to six warheads.
Pinkston, however, said it would be difficult for the North to get political and
diplomatic recognition beyond what is commonly assumed by the military in making
contingency plans.
"Official recognition will increase public pressure in South Korea and Japan to
take counter-measures, and that could trigger a regional arms race," he said.
"While it is prudent to prepare for military contingencies, there are political,
legal and diplomatic reasons not to recognize North Korea as a nuclear weapons
state."
He backed U.S. President Barack Obama's plan for high-level talks with North
Korea, saying Pyongyang will have to be confident and secure enough to give up
its nuclear program.
"I don't think that will be possible unless Kim Jong-il is directly reassured by
high-level U.S. officials," he said.
lcd@yna.co.kr
(END)
