UN Report: Millions of Asia-Pacific Jobs Can Be Salvaged By Reducing US-China Trade Tensions

By Manik Mehta NEW YORK, Dec 20 (Bernama) -- The latest regional report prepared by the United Nations’ (UN) development agency in the Asia-Pacific region, the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), says millions of jobs in the Asia-Pacific region can be lost as a result of trade conflicts between the United States (US) and China, even as both sides agree not to escalate the situation by hitting each other with tariffs. ESCAP’s 2018 Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Report suggests that the US-China quid-pro-quo tariffs against each other and the ensuing decline in confidence next year could have a significant impact that could see a decline of almost US$400 billion in the global gross domestic product; this, in turn, could cut the regional GDP by some US$117 billion. Commenting on the report, Mia Mikic, who heads ESCAP’s trade, investment and innovation division, said as production shifted and resources were re-allocated across sectors and borders due to the trade conflicts, “tens of millions of workers may see their jobs displaced and be forced to seek new employment”. Indeed, the report said trade tensions already had a major impact, resulting in disruptions to existing supply chains and dampening investment. One significant development was the slowing down of the trade growth after the first half of 2018, while foreign direct investment flows to the region were expected to decline next year too, after declining four per cent this year. Describing regional investment as key to creating new economic opportunities, Mikic called for putting “complementary policies” such as labour, education and retraining, and social protection measures high on the policymaking agenda. She added that this was crucial for ensuring progress on implementing the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. Meanwhile, ESCAP is urging countries to take full advantage of all existing initiatives to strengthen regional cooperation, including a new UN treaty on digitalising trade procedures and enabling cross-border paperless trade in the zone. The report purports to caution the two big powers that neither of them can win the “trade war”, with both sides invariably facing “significant economic losses from continuing the conflict”. ESCAP’s report suggests that the implementation of mega-regional trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, comprising the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and its six partners -- Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea -- could help offset much of the economic losses from trade tensions. The report contends that the implementation of such agreements could augment exports by 1.3 to 2.9 per cent, creating an additional 3.5 to 12.5 million jobs in the Asia-Pacific. The ESCAP arm is considered to be the largest among the UN regional commissions. It has 53 member states and nine associate member states, spanning a geographic expanse that stretches from the Tuvalu Island in the Pacific to Turkey in the west, from Russia in the north to New Zealand in the south. The region encompasses nearly two-thirds of the planet’s population. In addition to countries in the Asia-Pacific region, ESCAP’s membership also includes France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the US. Edited by Gerald Raja -- BERNAMA