ID :
58470
Thu, 04/30/2009 - 22:19
Auther :
Shortlink :
https://oananews.org//node/58470
The shortlink copeid
Swine flu may already be in Japan, U.S. expert warns
NEW YORK, April 30 Kyodo -
It may just be a matter of time for the new influenza, which is quickly
spreading around the globe, to be confirmed in Japan as the country is
connected to the rest of the world in many ways, a former president of the
Infectious Diseases Society of America said in a recent interview.
''It could spread in any direction,'' Martin Blaser, the chair of medicine at
New York University, told Kyodo News on Wednesday. ''Although Japan is a group
of islands, it is connected to the rest of the world in many, many ways and we
are no longer in the Edo Jidai.''
He was referring to a period in Japanese history, from 1603-1867, when the
country largely cut itself off from the outside world.
Even if Japan were to close its airports, as other countries such as Cuba and
Argentina have reportedly done by blocking flights from Mexico, or shut its
ports, it may only help to mitigate the spread of the influenza.
''They could cut off all contact tomorrow but it may be too late,'' Blaser said
at his Manhattan office. ''It may already have been introduced.''
Japan has yet to have a confirmed or suspected case of the new flu, which
mutated from swine flu and originated in Mexico. Outbreaks of the new flu have
been confirmed in more than 10 countries, including the United States, New
Zealand, Canada, Britain, Spain and Israel.
''The strain is already a pandemic,'' Blaser said. ''The only question is
whether it will be mild or severe.''
In a normal year, he explained, there are usually about 1 in 1,000 deaths from
influenza in the United States. But when new strains are introduced, those
rates could go up dramatically, which is the fear right now.
In recent history, new influenza strains were introduced, such as the Asian flu
in 1957, when 2 in 1,000 died and caused about 70,000 American deaths.
In 1918, the highly virulent Spanish flu spread to nearly every part of the
world and killed about half a million people in the United States alone. At
that time, about 20 in 1,000 died.
While it is too early to tell how high the death toll could climb, he pointed
out both the good and bad news. Typically, the influenza season in the northern
hemisphere peaks in the winter and is at its lowest in the summer.
''The good news is that it is coming into summer and summer kind of damps it
down. But the bad news is that the virus is breaking the rules, which means it
has a lot of force,'' he said.
The current strain, which he described as a recombinant --a combination of
human, pig and avian bird flu viruses -- is predicted to come back in the fall
and winter ''in a very high force'' if it slows down in the summer.
''That is why it is so important the world develops a vaccine for this strain
or a close cousin,'' he added, because it may very well evolve or mutate over
the next few months.
In the latest announcement, a 23-month old toddler died in Texas and became the
first fatality outside of Mexico. The fast moving swine flu has spread to at
least 10 U.S. states so far and has swept more deeply into Europe.
''It is clear that the virus is spreading and we don't see evidence of it
slowing down at this point,'' the WHO's Acting Director Keiji Fukuda told
reporters in Geneva.
Blaser, who has poured over records of influenza surveillance in Mexico based
on data collected there, believes that swine flu first struck Mexico City in
mid-February.
The difference between the cases in Mexico and the ones that have recently
cropped up in other countries is time. He stressed that the other countries are
only now experiencing their first wave of cases, whereas Mexicans have been
reporting anywhere from thousands to tens of thousands, or even more, cases to
their authorities.
Besides developing a vaccine, countries should make every effort to slow its
transmission by having citizens take proper precautions, such as staying home
if they are sick in order not to infect others.
If the situation gets more severe, he also advises people to wear masks,
although it is now too early to do so.
While he believes that masks do not provide 100 percent protection, they do
help to prevent the spread of the virus and are beneficial for infected people
and as a preventive measure.
If more cases are reported in large metropolitan cities like New York or Tokyo,
officials should consider instituting further measures, such as closing places
like schools or theaters.
==Kyodo
It may just be a matter of time for the new influenza, which is quickly
spreading around the globe, to be confirmed in Japan as the country is
connected to the rest of the world in many ways, a former president of the
Infectious Diseases Society of America said in a recent interview.
''It could spread in any direction,'' Martin Blaser, the chair of medicine at
New York University, told Kyodo News on Wednesday. ''Although Japan is a group
of islands, it is connected to the rest of the world in many, many ways and we
are no longer in the Edo Jidai.''
He was referring to a period in Japanese history, from 1603-1867, when the
country largely cut itself off from the outside world.
Even if Japan were to close its airports, as other countries such as Cuba and
Argentina have reportedly done by blocking flights from Mexico, or shut its
ports, it may only help to mitigate the spread of the influenza.
''They could cut off all contact tomorrow but it may be too late,'' Blaser said
at his Manhattan office. ''It may already have been introduced.''
Japan has yet to have a confirmed or suspected case of the new flu, which
mutated from swine flu and originated in Mexico. Outbreaks of the new flu have
been confirmed in more than 10 countries, including the United States, New
Zealand, Canada, Britain, Spain and Israel.
''The strain is already a pandemic,'' Blaser said. ''The only question is
whether it will be mild or severe.''
In a normal year, he explained, there are usually about 1 in 1,000 deaths from
influenza in the United States. But when new strains are introduced, those
rates could go up dramatically, which is the fear right now.
In recent history, new influenza strains were introduced, such as the Asian flu
in 1957, when 2 in 1,000 died and caused about 70,000 American deaths.
In 1918, the highly virulent Spanish flu spread to nearly every part of the
world and killed about half a million people in the United States alone. At
that time, about 20 in 1,000 died.
While it is too early to tell how high the death toll could climb, he pointed
out both the good and bad news. Typically, the influenza season in the northern
hemisphere peaks in the winter and is at its lowest in the summer.
''The good news is that it is coming into summer and summer kind of damps it
down. But the bad news is that the virus is breaking the rules, which means it
has a lot of force,'' he said.
The current strain, which he described as a recombinant --a combination of
human, pig and avian bird flu viruses -- is predicted to come back in the fall
and winter ''in a very high force'' if it slows down in the summer.
''That is why it is so important the world develops a vaccine for this strain
or a close cousin,'' he added, because it may very well evolve or mutate over
the next few months.
In the latest announcement, a 23-month old toddler died in Texas and became the
first fatality outside of Mexico. The fast moving swine flu has spread to at
least 10 U.S. states so far and has swept more deeply into Europe.
''It is clear that the virus is spreading and we don't see evidence of it
slowing down at this point,'' the WHO's Acting Director Keiji Fukuda told
reporters in Geneva.
Blaser, who has poured over records of influenza surveillance in Mexico based
on data collected there, believes that swine flu first struck Mexico City in
mid-February.
The difference between the cases in Mexico and the ones that have recently
cropped up in other countries is time. He stressed that the other countries are
only now experiencing their first wave of cases, whereas Mexicans have been
reporting anywhere from thousands to tens of thousands, or even more, cases to
their authorities.
Besides developing a vaccine, countries should make every effort to slow its
transmission by having citizens take proper precautions, such as staying home
if they are sick in order not to infect others.
If the situation gets more severe, he also advises people to wear masks,
although it is now too early to do so.
While he believes that masks do not provide 100 percent protection, they do
help to prevent the spread of the virus and are beneficial for infected people
and as a preventive measure.
If more cases are reported in large metropolitan cities like New York or Tokyo,
officials should consider instituting further measures, such as closing places
like schools or theaters.
==Kyodo
