ID :
61463
Wed, 05/20/2009 - 09:19
Auther :
Shortlink :
https://oananews.org//node/61463
The shortlink copeid
Internal political instability led to recent provocations by N. Korea: CIA chief
By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, May 19 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's recent provocations have come from political instability following the alleged health problems of its leader Kim Jong-il late last year, a top U.S. intelligence official said.
"There also are legitimate questions being raised about the internal stability of
North Korea, given Kim Jong-Il's health problems, uncertainty about succession,
the weak economy, and the persistent food shortages," Leon Panetta, director of
the Central Intelligence Agency, told a forum in Los Angeles Monday. "The result
is that North Korea remains one of the most difficult and unpredictable threats
that we face in that part of the world."
Kim Jong-il is believed to have suffered a stroke and undergone surgery last summer.
After months of disappearance from public view late last year, the reclusive
North Korean leader attended a parliamentary meeting last month, limping on his
left leg and with his left hand swollen.
Reports said Kim has selected his third and youngest son, Jong-un, 26, as his
heir apparent
and appointed him as a mid-level official at the North's all-powerful National
Defense Commission, through which Kim Jong-il controls the military as well as
political and economic affairs.
Panetta said the U.S. intelligence community has improved its skills at getting
information on North Korea's internal affairs.
"Like Iran, North Korea is a tough target to penetrate for intelligence purposes,
but we're making good progress," he said. "The fact is, we had good notice about
the fact that they were going to deploy the Taepo Dong missile and knew pretty
well within an hour when that was going to happen."
Panetta was talking about the North's April 5 rocket launch, which drew sanctions
from the U.N. Security Council.
Insisting the launch was to orbit a satellite, not a missile test, Pyongyang
responded by threatening to boycott six-party nuclear-control talks, conduct
further nuclear and ballistic missile tests, and restart its disabled nuclear
facilities to enhance its arsenal.
The conjecture is that North Korea's hardline military is taking advantage of a
kind of power vacuum created by Kim Jong-il's health failure to derail the
multilateral nuclear talks and strengthen the North's military might.
Former President Bill Clinton said in Seoul Monday that the political infighting
in North Korea has triggered the recent provocations.
"Whenever people who have power in a closed society have any concerns about
losing it, things tend to be degenerating to the lowest possible denominator," he
said.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in February touched on the sensitive
issue of North Korea's leadership change, while she was on an Asian tour.
"There is an increasing amount of pressure because, if there is succession, even
if it is a peaceful succession, that creates even more uncertainty and it also
may encourage behaviors that are even more provocative as a way to consolidate
power within the society," she said.
The chief North Korean official in charge of inter-Korean relations has
reportedly been executed in an apparent power struggle in which the hardline
military has gained in the wake of strained relations with the South since the
inauguration of conservative South Korean President
Lee Myung-bak early last year.
Reports said the North Korean official is a scapegoat for the worsening relations
with the South and the new Barack Obama administration, amid complaints by
hardline North Koreans that the rapprochement under the two liberal South Korean
governments of the past decade has imbued North Koreans with fantasies of aid
from South Korea and capitalism.
The Lee administration has stopped short of providing food and other economic aid
to the North, citing the North's nuclear ambitions, although his predecessors,
Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, had funneled hundreds of tons of food or
fertilizer, respectively, to the impoverished North every year.
The North's parliament last month appointed Chang Song-thaek, Kim's
brother-in-law, to the National Defense Commission, apparently to allow Chang to
play a caretaker role in a smooth power transition.
Another scenario is that North Korea's ruling Workers' Party and military leaders
have been consolidating power around one of the leader's three sons to establish
a collective leadership amid growing skepticism that there is time to groom a Kim
heir for another dynastic power succession.
None of Kim's three sons has had major posts in the government, military or the
ruling Workers' Party, although Kim had consolidated power for two decades in
various party and government posts until his father's death in 1994.
Jong-un was born to the leader's third known wife, Ko Young-hee, who died of
breast cancer in 2004.
The second son, Jong-chol, 28, who was also born to Ko, seems to be sidelined in
the succession due to a weak temperament stemming from a hormone-related disease.
Jong-nam, the oldest son, who was born to the leader's late second wife, Song
Hye-rim, has been adrift in China since 2001, when he was caught trying to visit
Disneyland in Tokyo with his son and wife on a forged passport.
WASHINGTON, May 19 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's recent provocations have come from political instability following the alleged health problems of its leader Kim Jong-il late last year, a top U.S. intelligence official said.
"There also are legitimate questions being raised about the internal stability of
North Korea, given Kim Jong-Il's health problems, uncertainty about succession,
the weak economy, and the persistent food shortages," Leon Panetta, director of
the Central Intelligence Agency, told a forum in Los Angeles Monday. "The result
is that North Korea remains one of the most difficult and unpredictable threats
that we face in that part of the world."
Kim Jong-il is believed to have suffered a stroke and undergone surgery last summer.
After months of disappearance from public view late last year, the reclusive
North Korean leader attended a parliamentary meeting last month, limping on his
left leg and with his left hand swollen.
Reports said Kim has selected his third and youngest son, Jong-un, 26, as his
heir apparent
and appointed him as a mid-level official at the North's all-powerful National
Defense Commission, through which Kim Jong-il controls the military as well as
political and economic affairs.
Panetta said the U.S. intelligence community has improved its skills at getting
information on North Korea's internal affairs.
"Like Iran, North Korea is a tough target to penetrate for intelligence purposes,
but we're making good progress," he said. "The fact is, we had good notice about
the fact that they were going to deploy the Taepo Dong missile and knew pretty
well within an hour when that was going to happen."
Panetta was talking about the North's April 5 rocket launch, which drew sanctions
from the U.N. Security Council.
Insisting the launch was to orbit a satellite, not a missile test, Pyongyang
responded by threatening to boycott six-party nuclear-control talks, conduct
further nuclear and ballistic missile tests, and restart its disabled nuclear
facilities to enhance its arsenal.
The conjecture is that North Korea's hardline military is taking advantage of a
kind of power vacuum created by Kim Jong-il's health failure to derail the
multilateral nuclear talks and strengthen the North's military might.
Former President Bill Clinton said in Seoul Monday that the political infighting
in North Korea has triggered the recent provocations.
"Whenever people who have power in a closed society have any concerns about
losing it, things tend to be degenerating to the lowest possible denominator," he
said.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in February touched on the sensitive
issue of North Korea's leadership change, while she was on an Asian tour.
"There is an increasing amount of pressure because, if there is succession, even
if it is a peaceful succession, that creates even more uncertainty and it also
may encourage behaviors that are even more provocative as a way to consolidate
power within the society," she said.
The chief North Korean official in charge of inter-Korean relations has
reportedly been executed in an apparent power struggle in which the hardline
military has gained in the wake of strained relations with the South since the
inauguration of conservative South Korean President
Lee Myung-bak early last year.
Reports said the North Korean official is a scapegoat for the worsening relations
with the South and the new Barack Obama administration, amid complaints by
hardline North Koreans that the rapprochement under the two liberal South Korean
governments of the past decade has imbued North Koreans with fantasies of aid
from South Korea and capitalism.
The Lee administration has stopped short of providing food and other economic aid
to the North, citing the North's nuclear ambitions, although his predecessors,
Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, had funneled hundreds of tons of food or
fertilizer, respectively, to the impoverished North every year.
The North's parliament last month appointed Chang Song-thaek, Kim's
brother-in-law, to the National Defense Commission, apparently to allow Chang to
play a caretaker role in a smooth power transition.
Another scenario is that North Korea's ruling Workers' Party and military leaders
have been consolidating power around one of the leader's three sons to establish
a collective leadership amid growing skepticism that there is time to groom a Kim
heir for another dynastic power succession.
None of Kim's three sons has had major posts in the government, military or the
ruling Workers' Party, although Kim had consolidated power for two decades in
various party and government posts until his father's death in 1994.
Jong-un was born to the leader's third known wife, Ko Young-hee, who died of
breast cancer in 2004.
The second son, Jong-chol, 28, who was also born to Ko, seems to be sidelined in
the succession due to a weak temperament stemming from a hormone-related disease.
Jong-nam, the oldest son, who was born to the leader's late second wife, Song
Hye-rim, has been adrift in China since 2001, when he was caught trying to visit
Disneyland in Tokyo with his son and wife on a forged passport.
