(2nd LD) Obama, Lee to discuss N. Korea, other issues: White House

(ATTN: CHANGES headline; UPDATES with more details, background, expert's remarks
throughout)
By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, June 8 (Yonhap) -- U.S. President Barack Obama will meet next week
with his South Korean counterpart Lee Myung-bak to discuss North Korea and other
issues of mutual concern, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Monday.
"President Obama will meet President Lee of South Korea at the White House on
Tuesday, June 16th," Gibbs said in a daily news briefing. "The two leaders will
confer on North Korea and will consult on a range of bilateral and other issues."
The summit will be the second of its kind since their first bilateral meeting in
London in April on the sidelines of the G20 economic summit meeting.
"President Obama extended the invitation at their last meeting in London, on
April 2nd, during the G-20 summit," Gibbs said. "The Republic of Korea is a close
friend and a key ally of the United States, and the president looks forward to
exploring ways in which the two countries can strengthen cooperation on the
regional and global challenges of the 21st century."
The meeting comes as the international community seeks a condemnation of North
Korea's nuclear test last month, its second in nearly three years.
The North Korean nuclear issue will likely dominate the summit as tension has
mounted on the Korean Peninsula since the May 25 detonation.
In an apparent response to South Korea's security concerns, Obama will provide
written guarantee that the South falls within the U.S. "nuclear umbrella," South
Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan said Friday after meeting with U.S.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
The North's recent test has again sparked heated debate over the viability of
South Korea becoming a nuclear power. Early ideas that the South could possess
atomic weapons were derailed by the U.S. in the 1970s when Washington prevented
South Korea from building nuclear reactors and obtaining necessary materials with
the help of France and Canada.
Lee and Obama will also likely discuss ways to effectively deter North Korea from
proliferating its nuclear technology and ballistic missiles.
South Korea announced its full participation in the Proliferation Security
Initiative (PSI), a U.S.-led campaign aimed at stopping the spread of weapons of
mass destruction, in the wake of the North's nuclear test.
North Korea has also launched several short and medium-range missiles, and is
reportedly poised to fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
Intelligence suggests that Pyongyang does not yet possess the ability to tip a
missile with a nuclear warhead but is actively making efforts to improve its
technology.
"The worst case scenario is one in which a nuclear-weapons state possesses the
ability to launch long-range missiles," Minister Yu said. "We need to be prepared
for any contingency, although we are unsure about the North's actual abilities."
Since the North's test, the five veto-wielding members of the U.N. Security
Council plus South Korea and Japan have met several times, but they have yet to
narrow differences over the level of arms embargoes and financial sanctions that
should be imposed on Pyongyang as punishment. They have agreed, however, on the
need to adopt a legally-binding resolution against North Korea, a stronger step
than the one that followed the North's long-range rocket launch in early April.
China, North Korea's staunchest communist ally, and Russia want any inspections
of North Korean cargo to be made within the framework of existing international
law, and have said that any financial sanctions should exclude normal and
humanitarian financial transactions.
Denny Roy, senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu, said Lee and Obama
should not to overestimate China's influence on North Korea, although Obama has
lauded China's role in international efforts towards the North's
denuclearization.
"Although China is an irreplaceable supplier of vital commodities such as food
and energy to North Korea, ultimately Pyongyang will not allow China to dictate
policies that undermine the (Kim Jong-il) regime's perceived vital interests," he
said. "China also fears pushing too hard, as this might either forfeit all
Chinese influence or cause a collapse of the regime. So in this sense China's
influence is limited -- largely self-limited."
Washington is also seeking its own financial sanctions against North Korea aside
from those being discussed at the U.N., similar to the kind Washington slapped on
a Macau bank in 2005, freezing US$25 million worth of North Korean assets.
Roy recommended that the two leaders be cautious.
"Financial sanctions would seem to be one of the few areas where the U.S. and
South Korean governments could apply effective pressure on Pyongyang," he said.
"But this raises the risk of retaliation, given that conservative and
confrontation-acceptant forces seem to have the upper hand in Pyongyang at the
moment."
Many have speculated that the North's military has gained increasing power
recently, amid reports that leader Kim Jong-il is in poor health and is trying to
bolster support for his successor and third son, Kim Jong-un.
"The retaliation would not likely be an outright act of war, but action against a
vulnerable spot, such as South Korean nationals in Kaesong," Roy said, referring
to a joint industrial project on North Korean soil.
Also high on the summit agenda will be ways to persuade North Korea to return to
the six-party talks, amid growing skepticism over the fate of the negotiations,
which have been on and off since their inception in 2003.
North Korea has vowed to withdraw from the multilateral nuclear talks unless the
U.N. Security Council apologizes for its condemnation of the North for its April
rocket launch.
Some say North Korea favors bilateral talks, while others are skeptical about the
North's real intentions to abandon its nuclear arsenal.
"The game seems to have changed," Roy said. "The missile and nuclear tests may be
more for technical and/or domestic political purposes than for pressuring the
outside powers to return to negotiations on North Korea's terms. Now the highest
priority appears to be establishing a credible nuclear deterrent and thereby
guaranteeing North Korea's security."
On the pending free trade agreement between South Korea and the U.S., which was
signed in 2007 but has not been ratified, the two leaders agreed in April to
"chart a way forward," adding the deal "will enhance prosperity for the peoples
of the two countries."
U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk last month expressed hope that progress on the
deal will be made. At issue are what Washington has called lopsided auto trade
and restricted shipments of U.S. beef.
South Korean Trade Minister Kim Jong-hoon has said his government will not revise
the text of the deal itself, though some U.S. officials are reportedly hoping to
address the concerns via side agreements.
Roy was pessimistic, saying, "The sentiment in the U.S. Congress today is not
favorable to expanding foreign trade."
On reports that President Lee may propose to send troops to Afghanistan to foster
a favorable atmosphere, Roy said, "The perception that Lee gave something but got
nothing in return could be politically fatal to him, and damaging to U.S.-Korea
relations, back home."
He was referring to the months of street rallies held in Seoul last summer in
protest of the Lee administration's opening the South Korean market to U.S. beef
despite widespread public concern over mad cow disease.
"Obama must be careful about making a deal with Lee involving a South Korean
concession, such as troops for Afghanistan in exchange for U.S. ratification of
the Korea-U.S. FTA," he said.
hdh@yna.co.kr
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