3rd LD) Major powers agree on resolution to sanction N. Korea for nuke test:

((ATTN: ADDS Lohman's remarks, other details at bottom)
By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, June 10 (Yonhap) -- An agreement has been reached among five
permanent members of the U.N. Security Council on a draft resolution to sanction
North Korea for its recent nuclear test, diplomats said Wednesday.

"The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council -- the U.S., Britain,
France, China and Russia, and South Korea and Japan -- have agreed on a draft
resolution on North Korea's second nuclear test," a diplomat said, requesting
anonymity. "The draft has been circulated to all the 15 members of the security
council and we expect it to be put to a vote Friday."
Another diplomat predicted that the draft will be approved at a plenary session
of the council Friday despite possible objections from Vietnam and Libya, which
have shown sympathy to North Korea, noting the draft needs to get nine votes,
including all votes from the five veto-wielding powers, for approval.
China, North Korea's staunchest communist ally, agreed to the U.S.-written draft
Tuesday, but the delegation from Russia, another veto power, did not, citing the
need to consult with Moscow.
The P-5 plus two, including the five veto-wielding permanent council members and
South Korea and Japan, have met several times since the North's May 25 nuclear
detonation, the second of its kind. However, they had failed to narrow
differences over the level of sanctions, although they agreed on the need to
adopt a legally binding resolution against the North.
Susan Rice, the U.S. permanent representative to the U.N., told reporters, "We
tabled a draft resolution to be considered by all colleagues on the Security
Council which we think provides a very strong, very credible, very appropriate
response to the provocative nuclear test that North Korea launched and its
subsequent activities."
The 35-point draft resolution bans any further nuclear and ballistic missile
tests and calls for overall arms embargoes and financial sanctions on North
Korea.
Rice said she is confident that China will enforce the resolution if adopted.
China has insisted on changing the word "decide" to "call on" in the draft,
triggering debates on whether the words are legally binding.
"It also makes it clear in a binding requirement that any state that refuses to
submit to a consensual inspection on the high seas must be directed by its flag
state to proceed to port for mandatory inspection," Rice said. "So there is a
mandatory end-state in this process that I've described."
China has demanded any inspections be made within the framework of existing
international law, which prohibits cargo interdictions in international waters
unless approved by the country of the flag carried by the vessel.
The draft will "impose a complete embargo on the export of arms from North
Korea," she said. "It substantially broadens the ban on the import of weapons to
North Korea and requires that any remaining light weapons or small arms and
related material that may be imported be notified in advance, fully
transparently, to the sanctions committee."
On the financial sanctions, she said the draft aims to "prevent the flow of funds
internationally that could in any way, shape or form benefit North Korea's
missile, nuclear or proliferation activities."
U.N. member states are also advised to reduce or refrain from providing any
further financial aid to North Korea unless the aid is related to humanitarian
activity.
The enhanced financial sanctions by the U.N. come as Washington considers
pursuing its own financial sanctions against North Korea.
Washington slapped financial sanctions on a Macau bank in 2005 to freeze US$25
million worth of North Korean assets, effectively cutting off Pyongyang's access
to the international financial system. Banco Delta Asia had been accused of
helping North Korea launder money from circulating sophisticated counterfeit
US$100 bills called "supernotes."
It is not clear whether the sanctions will deter the North from further
provocations, with some saying Pyongyang will eventually return to bilateral or
multilateral negotiations and others voicing pessimism about Pyongyang's
willingness to abandon its nuclear arsenal.
China plays a key role, as North Korea is heavily dependent on its communist
neighbor for energy, food and other necessities. Beijing demanded any sanctions
be conducive to coaxing the reclusive North to return to the multilateral nuclear
disarmament talks.
Walter Lohman, director of The Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Center, is
pessimistic about the resolution's enforcement.
"It calls on, but doesn't require, member states to impose expanded financial
sanctions, to cover export credits, grants, assistance, and concessional loans,"
he said. "And it is all done under Chapter VII, Article 41 of the U.N. Charter,
which excludes the use of force -- a contentious issue in previous rounds of
Security Council talks and a key problem with enforcing the October 2006
resolution."
Lohman was discussing Resolution 1718 and others adopted after North Korea's
nuclear and ballistic missile tests in the past years that have largely been
disregarded by China, which does not interpret them as mandatory.
Peter Beck, adjunct professor at Underwood International School, echoed Lohman's
theme.
"China is not doing enough," Beck said. "There's no tangible, no concrete action
taken by China other than some strong words."
North Korea's recent provocations, including nuclear and missile tests, are
widely seen as an attempt by ailing North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to help his
third and youngest son, Jong-un, consolidate power in an unprecedented
third-generation dynastic power transfer in the reclusive communist state.
Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu, says China has a
limited influence on North Korea, which appears to be determined to go nuclear.
"Although China is an irreplaceable supplier of vital commodities, such as food
and energy, to North Korea, ultimately Pyongyang will not allow China to dictate
policies that undermine the regime's perceived vital interests," he said. "China
also fears pushing too hard, as this might either forfeit all Chinese influence
or cause a collapse of the regime. So in this sense China's influence is limited
-- largely self-limited."
Lohman agrees.
"Nothing has changed. The game is still about enforcement, and it's about China's
unused bilateral leverage," he said. "They still value stability and a
perpetually divided peninsula over the threat of a nuclear North Korea. The
Chinese and Russian prevented a tougher resolution, and will continue to prevent
effective enforcement of this one. And that will be the problem. Like the others,
it will be ignored."
hdh@yna.co.kr
(END)