(EDITORIAL from the Korea Herald on June 12)

Enforcement crucial

The U.N. Security Council is expected to vote on expanded sanctions against North
Korea before the end of the week. It is widely expected that the Security Council
will adopt a package of sanctions tougher than Resolution 1718, which was adopted
in 2006 following Pyongyang's first nuclear test.

The 35-point draft resolution bans further nuclear and ballistic missile tests
and calls for arms embargoes and financial sanctions against Pyongyang. The
resolution contains tougher rules for inspection of cargo on air, land and sea to
interdict banned materials related to Pyongyang's nuclear and missile activities.
The resolution expands a partial arms embargo to ban the export of all weapons by
North Korea, but allows North Korea to purchase small arms, on condition that
such sales are reported to the United Nations. All arms-related financing is
banned and states are urged to avoid new financial deals with Pyongyang except
for humanitarian or development projects.
The five permanent members of the Security Council, South Korea and Japan
negotiated for two weeks before agreeing on the draft resolution. China and
Russia, North Korea's traditional allies, are said to have negotiated for less
forceful wording, which raises questions about their willingness to enforce the
expanded sanctions.
China and Russia, the two countries with considerable influence on North Korea,
basically ignored the sanctions contained in Resolution 1718. Unless these two
countries, especially China, are fully aboard, even the stricter set of sanctions
will not have the fully desired effect.
Indeed, the success of any new U.N. sanctions against North Korea depends on the
vigorous enforcement of the sanctions by all member states. China's full
application of the sanctions will be especially crucial. China is North Korea's
closest ally and provides the much needed energy and food for the impoverished
country. As such, China is in a position where it can exercise influence over its
sponsor state, if it so chooses.
Yet, Beijing negotiated for less strong wording in the draft resolution. This may
have been so in consideration of the close ties between the two countries.
However, it is more likely that Beijing's reluctance to squeeze North Korea too
hard stems from its own interests. It fears that if it pushes Pyongyang too hard,
it may lose much of its influence over the country which, after all, upholds the
ideology of self-reliance. Also, a scenario where a sudden regime collapse in
North Korea leads to a massive influx of North Korean refugees across its border
is not something that Beijing would like to see unfold.
Russia, another major ally of North Korea, may also be reluctant to enforce
tougher sanctions. Russia's envoy to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, said
that Moscow was backing sanctions with a "heavy heart."
Seoul is known to have worked to gain an exemption from a ban on financial
transactions with the North for the Gaeseong industrial complex. The joint
economic project is a symbol of inter-Korean reconciliation. The Lee
administration has said so far that it would keep it open, despite recent
problems, including a South Korean worker at the complex who has held by North
Koreans since March. Whether this was a prudent move remains to be seen.
North Korea, which responded to U.N. condemnation of its long-range missile in
April with threats of additional nuclear test and a long-range missile launch -
it made good on the nuclear test threat last month - is said to be preparing to
launch a long-range missile. Pyongyang must immediately halt all provocative acts
that destabilize the region and return to dialogue. More missile firings will do
nothing but deepen its isolation and the misery of its impoverished people. The
international community can demonstrate its unity against North Korea's nuclear
ambitions by voting unanimously on the proposed resolution.
(END)