Expert expects more friendship than substance from summit

By Hwang Doo-hyong

WASHINGTON, June 13 (Yonhap) -- The upcoming summit meeting between South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama next week will likely be heavier on building personal rapport than on policy substance, a U.S. expert on Korea said.

"I don't think there's much they can do in terms of substance," said Peter Beck,
adjunct professor at Underwood International School, American University, in an
interview this week with Yonhap News Agency. "I think they will be more
developing their personal relationship, building trust, etc."
Lee and Obama will meet here on June 16 for their second summit. They met in
London early April on the margins of the G20 economic summit to address the worst
global recession in decades.
In announcing the summit, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Monday, "The
two leaders will confer on North Korea and will consult on a range of bilateral
and other issues."
Gibbs also said that South Korea "is a close friend and a key ally of the United
States, and the president looks forward to exploring ways in which the two
countries can strengthen cooperation on the regional and global challenges of the
21st century."
Beck, however, expected no measures by Lee and Obama to make a breakthrough
either on the stalled six-party talks on ending North Korea's nuclear ambitions
or on the ratification of the free trade agreement (FTA) pending since its
signing in 2007.
"At the present time, I don't think the six-party talks are sustainable," said
Beck, who directed the International Crisis Group's Northeast Asia Project in
Seoul. "The mood here is very dark and very pessimistic when it comes to North
Korea. Fewer and fewer people are advocating engagement with North Korea because
of their provocative actions in the past few months."
North Korea faces an overall arms embargo and financial sanctions from the U.S.
Security Council for its second nuclear test last month. Pyongyang has also fired
several missiles, declared withdrawal from the six-party talks and threatened to
enhance its nuclear arsenal and terminate the armistice that ended the 1950-53
Korean War, demanding the Security Council apologize for its condemnation of the
North's rocket launch in April.
"We are already being tested and will continue to be tested by Pyongyang," Beck
said. "Reaffirming their alliance will be the only thing they can do right now."
Beck was pessimistic about China's real intentions to rein in North Korea's
provocations.
"China is not doing enough. There's no tangible, no concrete action taken by
China other than some strong words," he said. "We know everyone has strong words
for North Korea, but we have yet to see any concrete action from Beijing to send
a message to Pyongyang to be more cooperative."
"I don't think Washington is in a good position to have leverage over Beijing
when it comes to North Korea," he said.
Beck called on Lee and Obama to focus on consolidating the alliance.
"Just pledge to cooperate closely towards North Korea," he said, adding there
aren't any issues they can resolve. "Coordination is easier, but finding an
effective strategy towards North Korea will difficult, though not impossible."
Ironically, North Korea's provocations will help Lee and Obama consolidate their
friendship, said Beck.
"I think it's better to say that relations between Washington and Seoul are
stronger than ever," Beck said. "I think President Obama and President Lee are
determined to put their bilateral relationship on a very strong footing. North
Korea is making that easier with that provocative behavior. They are making it
easier for Washington and Seoul to coordinate."
Lee is to hold a one-hour meeting with Obama, give a joint press availability and
hold a luncheon meeting at the White House.
Officials attribute such hospitality to the importance of the alliance between
South Korea and the U.S. amid growing nuclear and ballistic missile threats from
North Korea.
Lee and Obama met briefly in London in a warm atmosphere, dispelling concerns
over their ideological differences.
"Lee Myung-bak is conservative and Obama is supposed to be a liberal," Beck said.
"But I think they are both pragmatic moderates. I think the most important thing
they can do is to develop a personal relationship."
Beck did not expect "a joint communique with much in the way of contents after
the summit next week, saying "There is almost no chance of the FTA being passed
this year."
U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk last month expressed hope that progress on the
deal will be made on what Washington has called lopsided auto trade and
restricted shipments of U.S. beef.
South Korean Trade Minister Kim Jong-hoon has said his government will not revise
the text of the deal itself, though some U.S. officials hope to address the
concerns via side agreements.
Lee and Obama agreed in April to "chart a way forward," but some say the Korea
FTA is the "best deal" in the "worst timing" due to the economic crisis which
spawned a widening protectionism among Democratic congressmen.
"I see almost zero possibility for the FTA's passage this year," Beck said.
On the possibility of Lee and Obama discussing South Korean troops being sent to
Afghanistan, Beck said, "I doubt that they will be bringing it up in the summit."
He, however, advised Lee to be prepared. "Sooner or later the request will
come," he said.