S. Korean, U.S. think tanks to discuss sudden changes in North Korea

SEOUL, June 23 (Yonhap) -- South Korean and U.S. think tanks will hold a joint
seminar in Washington from Tuesday, concentrating mostly on the possibility of
sudden changes in North Korea.

The four-day closed-door discussions will be led by analysts from the Korea
Institute for Defense Analyses, a research arm of Seoul's National Intelligence
Service, and from the Brookings Institution, organizers here said.
"The discussions are expected to deal with a comprehensive set of North Korean
issues, but the main issue is the potential for sudden changes in North Korea," a
member of the Seoul-based think tank said, requesting anonymity.
The unpublicized meeting coincides with speculation of a power transfer in the
North. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, who reportedly suffered a stroke in
August, is believed to have named his third and youngest son, Jong-un, as his
successor. Many analysts link the envisioned leadership change to the North's
recent aggressive behavior, marked by nuclear and missile tests.
Radio Free Asia reported that the participants include officials from the U.S.
government and the South Korean military. The report quoted a diplomatic source
in Washington as saying that Richard Bush, director of the Brooking
Institutions's Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, has been studying North
Korea issues, such as the possible collapse of the Kim regime.
The topic is sensitive and provocative for the communist state, which called
similar discussions between Seoul and Washington last year an "invasion scheme."
South Korea and the U.S. have "Operational Plan 5029," based on a scenario that
their military will advance to North Korea to contain security risks if and when
Pyongyang's regime collapses.
hkim@yna.co.kr
(END)