U.N. sanctions hold little sway on N. Korea: U.S. economist

By Kim Eun-jung
SEOUL, June 25 (Yonhap) -- New U.N. sanctions on North Korea for its second
nuclear test will have little impact on the country's economy, as China and the
North's other major trading partners are reluctant to seriously enforce them, a
U.S. scholar said Thursday.

Tough U.N. responses to Pyongyang's first nuclear test in 2006 did little to curb
the communist country's atomic drive, and the international community should now
leave a dialogue channel open with the North, said Stephan Haggard, a professor
at the University of California San Diego.
"The last sanction didn't have any effect on North Korea, and I am skeptical of
the current one," Haggard said at a Seoul forum hosted by the Institute of Far
Eastern Studies, a leading think tank on North Korea issues.
"The trade between North Korea and China showed no difference during the first
nuclear test in 2006, even when the U.N. Security Council's Resolution 1718 was
still effective," he said.
The council unanimously adopted Resolution 1874 to punish North Korea for its May
25 nuclear test, slapping sharper sanctions than those imposed three years
earlier. The new resolution bans North Korea from exporting weapons and calls on
U.N. members to deny financial services that could be funneled into Pyongyang's
nuclear and missile programs.
Haggard believes that China, the North's largest trading partner, will not be as
hard on North Korea as the U.S. may expect, as trade between the two allies is
more "commercial" than political. Other North Korean trading partners are mostly
Middle Eastern countries, like Lebanon and Iran, which are at odds with the U.S.
North Korea's trade with China has been steadily increasing in recent years. The
volume amounted to US$1.58 billion in 2006 and rose to $1.69 billion the
following year, according to South Korea's Unification Ministry. The bilateral
trade reached $2.03 billion last year, accounting for 70 percent of North Korea's
total trade volume.
The American economist was also skeptical about the North Korea policy pursued by
U.S. President Barack Obama, who has vowed not to reward the North for
provocative behavior. He said regional countries should maintain the six-party
framework on North Korea's nuclear program rather than rush to exclude Pyongyang
from it.
Seoul has proposed a temporary five-party framework with the U.S., China, Russia
and Japan in a bid to boost coordination between the regional powers to persuade
North Korea to rejoin the six-party talks. North Korea pulled out of the
negotiations in protest of U.N. sanctions over its long-range rocket launch in
April.
"Despite all these troubles, we still have to talk with North Korea," said
Haggard. "But I'm worried about the current U.S. policy since the Obama
administration sounds a lot like the Bush administration.
"Maybe North Korea is not coming back now, but we should not close the door," he
said.
ejkim@yna.co.kr
(END)