Reset of Russia-US relations-propaganda or show of political will?.

MOSCOW, July 4 (By Itar-Tass World Service writer Lyudmila
Alexandrova) -- Is it really possible to reset the fundamentally spoiled
Russian-US relations, or will everything be confined to mutually polite
but non-committing statements on either side? This remains a real puzzle
for Russian analysts days before US President Barack Obama's visit to
Russia, due on July 6-8.

On the eve of the visit both sides - Russia and the United States -
expressed the hope a breakthrough in their relations was still possible.
The new, Obama-led Administration has demonstrated its readiness to
change the situation for the better and to build a more effective, more
reliable, lastly, more up-to-date relationship, Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev said in a message in his video blog. We are prepared for this,
too, he added.
In an interview to Associated Press on Wednesday Obama said
cooperation with Russia in nuclear disarmament was productive. He also
dismissed the rumors of a standoff over Iran and North Korea. And in an
interview to Itar-Tass and Russia's second television channel Rossiya on
Thursday he said new windows of opportunity were opening up for
cooperation in the economy, defense, and struggle with terrorism, for a
constructive response to such issues as Iran, and for wider trading ties.
The main items on the visit's agenda are well-known. Obama and
Medvedev will hold talks behind closed doors. The presidents will hear
reports by the delegation working on a document that is expected to
replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-1) expiring on December
5. Also, Obama is going to discuss a wide range of bilateral relations and
world issues, such as Iran, Afghanistan, North Korea and non-proliferation
of weapons of mass destruction.
There will be a joint breakfast with Prime Minster Vladimir Putin.
Diversification of energy flows from Eurasia to Europe will be in focus.
Several meetings with the Russian public will follow. Obama will meet with
former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, speak on Russian-US relations
at the Russian School of Economics and meet with representatives of civil
society and businessmen. According to a special presidential assistant and
adviser, Michael McFall, the United States is determined to reset
relations not only with the Russian government, but also with Russian
society and Russian people.
Central to the visit will be the signing of a framework document, the
basis of a new START treaty. This document is expected to prove the main
outcome of the summit. However, according to the daily Kommersant, Moscow
and Washington have not agreed yet to what level they are to reduce their
nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles. If the controversies are not
ironed out by Monday, there is the risk the talks may end in a very
general, not binding document.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has said Moscow and Washington
have been conducting intensive negotiations over the days and hours still
to go before the visit.
"Forward groups of negotiators are in the Russian capital. Figures and
instructions are on the table. We are steering towards a final
presidential document on strategic offensive arms. It will let us arrange
for the work (on a treaty to replace START-1) with the aim to finalize it
by the established date, December 5," Ryabkov said.
According to media reports the United States insists the document
still being drafted should contain specific figures of operational nuclear
warheads and strategic delivery vehicles, eventually to be stated in the
treaty. That would enable Barack Obama to say loudly and clearly one of
his most important foreign policy goals has been achieved. Washington
wants the number of warheads to be reduced to 1,500-1,600, and of the
delivery vehicles, to 1,100.
Earlier, President Medvedev and the commander of Russia's strategic
missile forces, Nikolai Solovtsov, declared Moscow's readiness to agree to
a radical reduction of nuclear potentials to 1,500 warheads and to
considerably cutting the number of delivery vehicles. However, on the eve
of Obama's visit to Russia some controversies surfaced.
The daily Kommersant's sources explain that firstly, Russian military
have changed their mind. Now they are reluctant to reduce warheads to
below 1,700 pieces, and, secondly, Moscow has linked a future START with
the United States' plans for deploying its missile defense components in
Eastern Europe. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said
on Wednesday once again that at the forthcoming summit Russia expected a
fundamental discussion of the missile defense problem, which is closely
linked with strategic offensive arms reductions.
Also, Moscow insists that a future START should contain a special
clause on the reduction of delivery vehicles armed with conventional
warheads. Washington is against. Lastly, the two sides are divided over
the number of delivery vehicles.
Russian experts' opinions of the likely outcome of the visit are
varied. The chief of a department at the Political Technologies Center,
Sergei Mikheyev, is quoted by the daily Vzglyad as saying the reset of
relations is nothing but a US propaganda trick.
The Americans will not compromise on a single fundamental issue, the
political scientist warns. And they are quite resourceful, when it comes
to propaganda. Take the scheduled meeting Obama is to have with Gorbachev,
who has no political weight in Russian politics today."
The chairman of the Political Technologies Center's board, Boris
Makarenko, says on the Politkom.ru website that Russian-US talks on a new
START have fundamental importance. Progress in and the results of
US-Russian cooperation on this issue will make one able to judge how real
the resetting of bilateral relations really is.
"What is it that makes this process positive? Firstly, the obvious
political will of both states and both presidents to exert every effort to
make this treaty a reality by the end of 2009. That would be a real
confirmation the idea of relations' reset has a practical embodiment.
Until the negotiations got going it looked nice and beautiful but somewhat
hypothetical."
It is common knowledge that the theme of strategic arms control has
always been the key one in relations between the Soviet Union, and later
Russia, on the one hand, and the United States, on the other, Makarenko
said. Needless to say, Moscow and Washington know how to go about the
business of such negotiations, and they are determined to achieve a
result, in contrast to many other areas where they will have to begin with
formulating approaches and positions - be it Iran, missile defense or the
theme of near neighbors. As far as the theme of strategic offensive arms
is concerned, all approaches are known and the contracting parties
understand each other pretty well. Lastly, whenever their negotiators were
discussing strategic offensive arms in the past, Moscow and Washington
invariably sought to steer clear of tension," the political scientist said.