Japan's ruling bloc on course to lose majority in upper house: poll
TOKYO, July 15 Kyodo - Japan's ruling bloc appears to be in danger of losing its majority in the House of Councillors in the upcoming election for the upper chamber, a Kyodo News poll showed Tuesday, as minor parties gain ground amid household struggles with the rising cost of living.
The poll, conducted over two days beginning Sunday with responses from more than 43,000 voters, showed the ruling Liberal Democratic Party being on course to secure fewer than 40 of the 125 seats up for grabs -- a result that would likely trigger calls for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation.
While the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan maintained stable support, smaller parties promoting populist economic agendas, such as the Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito, appear poised to make strong gains that could increase their influence.
Ishiba has said he will consider it a victory if the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito just retain their majority in the 248-seat chamber. The two parties need to win 50 seats combined to do so.
With less than a week until voting, the target may be out of reach for Ishiba, who is already under pressure after his ruling coalition lost its majority in the more powerful House of Representatives in last year's general election.
The results also showed that Komeito, which is grappling with an aging support base that has long helped drive its campaigns, may struggle to hold onto its 14 contested seats.
Despite the ruling bloc's weakness, the results suggested the largest opposition CDPJ would make only modest gains from its current 22 seats and is unlikely to reach 30.
The DPP has four of its seats up for reelection, and it could stand to win more than triple that amount as it continues to build on momentum from October's election with appeals to workers, such as its pledge to increase the income tax threshold.
The minor opposition Sanseito party, which is attracting voters with its "Japanese First" banner of nationalist and anti-establishment policies, could potentially win more than 10 seats, up from the two it currently holds in the upper chamber.
Other small parties also appear set to make gains, with the Conservative Party of Japan expected to win its first two seats in the upper house. Founded in 2023, the party targets disillusioned right-wing LDP voters and gained three seats in the lower house last year.
Team Mirai, a new group advocating for technological reforms to Japan's political system, is projected to win one seat based on the poll results, as is the NHK Party. The newly formed Path to Rebirth party, led by Shinji Ishimaru, a former mayor in Hiroshima Prefecture, is unlikely to secure a seat.
The survey sought at least 600 responses per constituency across 45 districts and received answers from 43,711 voters.
The election's outcome is still uncertain, with 15.2 percent of respondents saying they had not yet decided whom to vote for in constituency races, and 7.0 percent saying the same for the national proportional representation list.
==Kyodo
