ID :
70409
Tue, 07/14/2009 - 21:44
Auther :

N. Korean attack would be sudden but futile: U.S. general

(ATTN: RECASTS lead; ADDS comment in para 8, background in last 2 paras; CORRECTS
figure in para 9)
By Sam Kim
SEOUL, July 14 (Yonhap) -- A North Korean offensive on South Korea would come
with "very little notice" but fail to endure as the communist state lacks the
economic and diplomatic support it needs, a senior U.S. military officer said
Tuesday.
"They have an extremely large military that is forward deployed," U.S. Maj. Gen.
Johnny Weida said, noting over two-thirds of North Korea's forces are within 90km
of the border with South Korea.
"They could attack, if they were so inclined, with very little notice," said
Weida, the outgoing deputy chief of staff for the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK).
Weida was speaking to a group of several dozen South Korean civilians taking part
in the USFK-sponsored Executive Orientation Program, which took them on a tour to
the Demilitarized Zone.
The U.S. has 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea -- a legacy of the 1950-53
Korean War that ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty -- as a deterrent
against the North.
North Korea has in recent months scrapped the truce and warned of war on the
Korean Peninsula, threatening retaliation for a U.N. resolution that toughened
sanctions against Pyongyang for its May 25 nuclear test.
"It is our assessment that, because of their failing economy and limited support
from traditional allies like Russia and China, they could not sustain a major
offensive like they did in the first Korean War," Weida said.
He added that the U.S. and its allies should first "engage (North Korea)
diplomatically, try to talk to them through all kinds of forums, but show them
that military action is futile."
North Korea is considered the world's fourth-largest military power, with the
largest special forces unit and artillery units, according to Weida.
It has about 11,000 underground bunkers, along with 80,000 special forces and
13,000 artillery guns, Weida said.
"Their attack, however limited, would be extremely destructive to South Korea,"
he said, describing North Korean leader Kim Jong-il as "a pretty frail, sick
man."
A South Korean cable news station said this week, quoting unnamed sources, that
Kim appears to be suffering from pancreatic cancer.
Kim, 67, reportedly suffered a stroke last year, and South Korean defense
officials believe he may be stoking tensions to consolidate his regime ahead of a
father-to-son power succession.
"If he miscalculates and attacks South Korea, he and his regime are done," Weida
said, calling such an offensive "extremely unlikely because this guy (Kim) wants
to live."
Weida, who led the South Korean civilian tour group comprised of government
workers, businessmen and others, is set to be transferred to the Pentagon this
week.
He will be replaced by Maj. Gen. Lawrence Wells, also an air force officer who
has worked in intelligence at the Pentagon since June 2006.
samkim@yna.co.kr
(END)

X